Three NBA Props to Bet on Thursday’s Slate
Brad Rempel- USA Today Sports
Tonight’s NBA slate is our last chance to get some action on games that actually matter before the All-Star break. Only four teams are in play — Nuggets at Bucks and Lakers at Timberwolves — but the FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool has still identified a handful of potentially exploitable wagers. There are currently seven props with a Bet Quality of 10 and three additional props with a Bet Quality of nine.
Here are three props that have my attention for tonight’s games.
All odds as of 3 p.m. ET
Brandon Ingram under 18.5 points (-120 at Sportsbook.com)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
On the surface, this doesn’t look like an appealing wager. Ingram has gone over this mark in each of his past four games, and the Timberwolves currently rank just 26th in defensive efficiency. But there are two huge factors that could reduce Ingram’s offensive impact tonight. The first is the individual defense of Jimmy Butler. While the Timberwolves defense has struggled in general, Butler remains one of the best wing defenders in the league. He currently ranks fourth among all wing players in Defense Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). The second factor is the increased presence of Isaiah Thomas. Thomas only lasted five minutes in his most recent game before getting ejected, but he figures to dominate the usage for the Lakers when he’s on the court. As a bonus prop, Ingram under 3.5 free throws made could also have some value, with the Timberwolves currently committing the third-fewest fouls per game.
Will Barton over 4.5 rebounds (-125 at BetOnline)
8 p.m. ET
Barton is one of the better rebounding guards in the league: He’s averaging 5.4 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. He’s also been playing way more than 36 minutes per game recently, cracking 42 in each of his past two games. Barton has a phenomenal matchup for rebounding purposes tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have the second-worst team rebound rate in the league this season.
Andrew Wiggins under 17.5 points (+100 at Bovada)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Wiggins has taken a backseat to his teammates recently, which makes a lot of sense when your teammates are Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns. He’s posted a usage rate of just 20.4 percent through six games in the month of February, which represents a decrease of more than three percent when compared to his season-long mark (23.6 percent). Wiggins is not the most efficient scorer, shooting just 44.4 percent from the field and 77.1 percent from the free throw line this season, so a decrease in volume could hamper his scoring numbers moving forward. He’s been under 17.5 points in five of his past seven games, with the two exceptions just barely cracking the threshold at 18 and 19 points.