The FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool analyzes all the NBA player prop bets on the market each day and identifies opportunities to exploit. The last Tuesday of the regular season brings with it a lot of unpredictability because some teams are simply not motivated, but the tool has identified a number of props that it assigns a Bet Quality rating of 8/10 or more. Here are three worth looking into for the nationally televised games at 8 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Celtics F/C Al Horford Under 6.5 Rebounds at Wizards (-165 at 5Dimes)
8 p.m ET | TNT
The -165 odds imply a 65% probability that Horford goes under 6.5 boards, but that’s almost exactly what he’s done over his past nine games, a span in which he pulled down six or fewer rebounds in six of nine (66.7%) of games. Then there’s the fact that Horford averages 5.9 rebounds per game in Celtics losses — 1.8 fewer than he averages in wins — and the Celtics are 7.5-point underdogs tonight. As of this writing, the majority of tickets are on Boston, but an overwhelming majority of the money is on Washington, with the 45% difference between the two being the largest of any game on today’s slate, per Sports Insights’ Sharp Action Report. Horford has posted more than six rebounds in only one of the last seven losses he’s played in, so betting the under on this prop and betting Washington to cover the spread (or simply the moneyline) could be a good parlay opportunity. Bet Quality: 10/10.
Wizards C Marcin Gortat Under 8.5 Points vs. Celtics (-115 at 5Dimes)
8 p.m. ET | TNT
Gortat has been under 8.5 points in 12 of his last 20 games (60%) — including last game, when he scored just six points in 39 minutes. As his 15.6% usage rate indicates, Gortat can be on the court for a long time and end up with not many points to show for it. And his minutes are likely to come back to the norm in this game, as before last game he hadn’t seen minutes in the 30s since early February. There’s always a chance Gortat goes over on fluky tip-ins, but I’ll bet against a low-usage non-scorer going against the league’s best term in terms of defensive rating (103.9) any day. Bet Quality: 10/10.
Rockets F Trevor Ariza Under 10.5 Points at Lakers (-120 at Sportsbook.com)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Another low-usage player, Ariza hasn’t topped 10 points in any of his last four games and has done so only twice in his past nine. Ariza’s usage rate this season is only 14.4%, and per the FantasyLabs NBA On/Off tool it dips into the 13% range when Eric Gordon is on the floor, and reports are that Gordon (foot) will play today. And with Houston having sewn up the top seed in the West, there’s no reason for the 32-year-old Ariza to play his full complement of minutes anyway. In fact, he’s down to 28.7 minutes per game over his last three games — 5.2 minutes below his season average. Bet Quality: 8/10.
Pictured above: Marcin Gortat