3 NBA Props for Tuesday: Durant Over/Under 7 Rebounds?


Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Tuesday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals featuring the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets beginning at 9 p.m. ET:

  • Draymond Green (Golden State) over/under 11.5 points
  • Kevin Durant (Golden State) over/under 7 rebounds
  • Clint Capela (Houston) over/under 12.5 points

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.


Draymond Green Under 11.5 Points (+100)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Green fired up 11.2 field-goal attempts per game in Round 1 and 11.0 in Round 2, but has attempted just 6.3 per game in this series. Being that Green is a sub-45% career shooter who needed 8.8 attempts to reach 11.0 points per game during the regular season and 10.0 attempts for 11.7 points per game in these playoffs, odds are that Green scores fewer than 12 points for the fourth game in a row in Game 4.

Kevin Durant Under 7 Rebounds (-115)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Much to the chagrin of daily fantasy sports players, Durant’s peripheral stats have been next to nonexistent in this series. He’s averaging 33.3 points per game but only 4.0 rebounds. In fact, Durant has been under six rebounds in six of seven games since the start of Round 2, with the only exception being the infamous “Draymond Green late-night text” game in Game 4 against New Orleans. With the Warriors coming off a 41-point win in which Durant scored 25 points while Green pulled down 17 rebounds to Durant’s six, there’s no reason for them to change anything up in the SMS department, and thus, the rebounding department.

Clint Capela Under 12.5 Points (-115)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

After putting up 15.8 points in 31.8 minutes per game in Round 1 against Minnesota and 13.0 points in 33.0 minutes per game in Round 2 against Utah, Capela has slumped to just 10.0 points in 27.0 minutes per game in this series. With Draymond Green logging all his minutes as a small-ball 5, Capela is rendered much less of a factor in this matchup than against more traditional centers like Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert in Rounds 1 and 2, respectively. Capela also tends to struggle on the road, scoring 1.4 fewer points per game on the road than at home during the regular season and 3.2 fewer in the postseason.

All lines accurate as of 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 22.

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