3 NBA Props for Tuesday: Curry Over/Under 4.5 Assists?

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Monday’s analysis will cover the following three props:

  • Clint Capela over/under 13.5 points, Houston vs. Utah, 8 p.m. ET
  • Draymond Green over/under 9.5 rebounds, Golden State vs. New Orleans, 10:30 p.m. ET
  • Stephen Curry over/under 4.5 assists, Golden State vs. New Orleans, 10:30 p.m. ET

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

 

Clint Capela Over 13.5 Points (+100)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Betting props is dicier than usual tonight on a slate with two double-digit spreads that could turn into blowouts and cut starters’ minutes short, but at least Capela’s home/road splits work in his favor. In this year’s playoffs, he’s averaging 11.0 points per game in four road games, but 19.0 points per game in five home games. This trend dates back to the regular season, when Capela averaged 14.6 points per game at home but 13.1 on the road., including 16.0 at home and 7.0 on the road against Utah.

Draymond Green Over 9.5 Rebounds (-114)

10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

With Warriors head coach Steve Kerr going small with Andre Iguodala in the starting lineup, Green should see more time at the center position. During the regular season, Green’s rebound rate was 13.2% overall, but when deployed as the small-ball five with Iguodala, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant around him, it increased to 14.9%, per the FantasyLabs NBA On/Off tool. Given the double-digit spread in favor of Golden State in this game, there’s always the risk of a blowout cutting Green’s playing time short, but he’s averaged 11.2 rebounds in 37.0 minutes per game in the playoffs, a rate that affords him a bit of breathing room to still hit double digits in this spot.

Stephen Curry Under 4.5 Assists (-114)

10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Curry’s been a point guard by name only since returning from injury, jacking up 51 field-goal attempts while handing out only six assists across 88 minutes in three games. Curry’s touches are down from 77.0 per game in the regular season to 63.0 in the playoffs, with Green and Durant taking on primary ball-handling responsibilities. This has been a trend going back to the regular season: In his last four games (excluding that one on March 8 that he exited less than five minutes in), he recorded one assist in 25 minutes on March 23, four assists in 34 minutes on March 6, three assists in 24 minutes on March 2,  and three assists in 35 minutes on Feb. 28.

Photo credit: Stephen Curry
Pictured above: Derick E. Hingle – USA TODAY Sports

All lines accurate as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 8.

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