3 NBA Props for Wednesday: LeBron Over/Under 9 Rebounds?


Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James.

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Wednesday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics beginning at 8:30 p.m. ET:

  • LeBron James (Cavaliers) over/under 9.0 rebounds
  • Al Horford (Celtics) over/under 15.5 points
  • Kevin Love (Cavaliers) over/under 17.0 points

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.


Al Horford Under 15.5 Points (-125)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Cavs made the decision to insert Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup in Game 2, and that decision has had a big impact on the defensive end — especially against Horford. Thompson has spent the majority of his time defending Horford, limiting him to just 3-of-11 shooting over 137 possessions. As a result, Horford has averaged 8.5 points per 100 possessions below his season average in that matchup, failing to crack 15 points in each of the past three games.

LeBron James Under 9 Rebounds (-125)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

While the insertion of Thompson into the starting lineup has benefited the Cavs overall, playing with two traditional big men appears to have capped LeBron’s rebounding upside. Per the FantasyLabs NBA On/Off tool, LeBron’s rebounding rate has decreased by 2.8 percentage points when sharing the court with both Love and Thompson this season. In each of the past two games, LeBron has pulled down just five rebounds apiece.

Kevin Love Over 17 Points (-130)

8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

Love has failed to score more than 13 points in each of his past two games, being plagued by some terrible shooting numbers that may very well regress. Love shot just 29.2% from the field and 25% from 3-point range over that span, and both of those marks represent considerable decreases from his regular-season averages of 45.8% and 41.5%, respectively. However, Love’s usage rate has remained steady during the series — he’s been between 26.4% and 28.0% in all four games — so he should continue get plenty of opportunities to score in Game 5. If his shooting numbers experience positive regression, he should be able to clear the 17-point mark.

All lines accurate as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May 23.

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