3 NBA Props for Wednesday: Jaylen Brown Over/Under 15.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Wednesday: Jaylen Brown Over/Under 15.5 Points? article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

There’s only one NBA game on tap for tonight, but there still some player prop bets available that are potentially exploitable. Here are three props on my radar for tonight’s 8 p.m. ET contest between the Celtics and 76ers:

  • Jaylen Brown (Boston) over/under 15.5 points
  • Marcus Morris (Boston) over/under 12.5 points
  • Ersan Ilyasova (Philadelphia) over/under 9 points

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.

 

Jaylen Brown Under 15.5 Points (-115)

Brown will likely remain on a minutes limit for Game 5, which will make it difficult for him to hit the 16-point threshold. He’s hit that mark just once since returning from injury, and that game wound up going into overtime. Brown averaged just 10.5 points per game in the two games that ended in regulation.

Marcus Morris Over 12.5 Points (-130)

With Brown still on a minutes limit, Morris should be clear to assume his usual 28-30 minutes in Wednesday’s contest. He’s averaging just 12.8 points per game during the postseason, but he has the third-highest usage rate on the team (23.0%) over that span. However, he’s shooting just 37.3% from the field, which is more than 5% below his regular-season average (42.9%). Morris could be due for some positive regression moving forward.

Ersan Ilyasova Under 9.5 Points (+105)

Ilyasova has been an excellent veteran addition for the 76ers, but his playing time has dwindled over the past few playoff games. He played just 17 minutes in Game 4, which coincided with the increase in playing time for TJ McConnell (39 minutes). As long as McConnell remains entrenched in the starting lineup — which seems likely given that was the only game that the 76ers actually won — Ilyasova will likely have a minimal role in Game 5.

All lines accurate as of 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May 9.

Photo credit: Jaylen Brown
Pictured above: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports