A Profitable NBA Trend to Consider on Thursday

A Profitable NBA Trend to Consider on Thursday article feature image

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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The NCAA tournament is here. A matchup between 7-seed Rhode Island and 10-seed Oklahoma begins a 32-game onslaught of college basketball over two days that consumes the sports betting community. Brackets, survivor pools and Cinderella runs, who has time to handicap other sports?


March is all about the madness, but don’t forget about the NBA. Why bet one sport when you can gamble on two? Here is a profitable trend that has covered 64% of the time in a 314-game sample and applies to one of Thursday’s NBA games.

Contrarian bettors buy on bad news and sell on good. That means taking road dogs, betting teams that failed to cover, and fading those that cashed tickets in their previous game. Wouldn’t you know it, combining these three strategies creates a winning betting system with a large sample and consistent year-to-year results.

Road underdogs in conference games have historically been undervalued due to the familiarity between opponents. An additional contrarian take is to bet teams off an ATS loss as an underdog (teams casual bettors will avoid) against an opponent off an ATS win as a favorite (teams the public will chase). By zigging when the squares zag, bettors following this system have gone 198-110-6 (64.3%) ATS since 2005, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $7,666.

Adopt a Pooch

All dogs need love. Even the mangy tanking mutts that roam the NBA wilderness. Thursday’s play is on the Phoenix Suns. This bottom-dweller has lost six straight and are 12.5-point dogs in Utah to the Jazz. Betting a team actively trying to lose seems foolish but fear not. Following this system, teams on a losing streak have covered 66% ATS, double-digit dogs are 66% ATS and horrible teams (won 30% or less of games) have gone 67% ATS. The public wants no part of the Suns, time to buy low on Phoenix.

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Pictured: Suns guard Josh Jackson

Photo via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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