Three NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday: Holiday Over/Under 20.5 Points?

Three NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday: Holiday Over/Under 20.5 Points? article feature image
Credit:

Brendan Maloney- USA Today Sports

Tonight’s NBA slate features a moderate seven games, which is more than enough to find some potentially exploitable spots with the FantasyLabs Player Props tool. It has currently identified five props with a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, and an additional 10 props have a Bet Quality of nine.

 

Here are three props I’m eyeing for games starting at 8:00 and 9:00 p.m. ET.

Hawks SF Taurean Prince over 17 points (-115 at Bovada)

9:00 p.m. ET

Prince has a tough matchup today with the Utah Jazz, who have been the best team in the league from a defensive perspective since the All-Star Break. That said, this line just seems too low given his recent role with the Hawks offense. He’s scored at least 22 points in four straight games and saw just under 40 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.9 percent or greater in three of those games, so he’s had the necessary underlying volume in addition to the raw point totals.

Clippers PG/SG Lou Williams under five assists (-125 at Heritage)

8:00 p.m. ET

The Clippers are undoubtedly in a great spot today against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but this line still feels a bit high. Williams has always been more of a scorer than a distributor and has posted five assists or fewer in each of his past five games. He also saw just 31 minutes in his most recent contest, so it’s possible that the Clippers could be trying to ease his workload a bit. The Clippers have 14 games left in the regular season, but Williams has already eclipsed his previous career high in minutes played.

 

Pelicans PG/SG Jrue Holiday over 20.5 points (-120 at Sportsbook.com)

8:00 p.m. ET

Holiday has been a sensation for the Pelicans since they loss DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. He’s averaged 20.2 points per game over that time frame, and today’s contest with the Mavs sets up well for Holiday. The Pelicans are currently implied for 114 points, which represents an increase of roughly 2.5 points when compared to their seasonal average (111.7). The Mavs are allowing the third-most points per game to the PG position this season, and Holiday shredded them for 30 points in their most recent matchup.

Top Photo: Jrue Holiday; Photo Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA Today Sports