Hawks-76ers Betting Odds: Joel Embiid Injury News Drops Spread, Total

Jan 11, 2019 6:40 PM EST
Credit:

Photo credit: USAToday Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid

Betting Odds: Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers

  • Spread: 76ers -9.5
  • Over/Under: 232
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 6:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


Update at 6:45 p.m. ET: Embiid is ruled out. Redick will play.

At 5:20 pm. ET this afternoon, Joel Embiid was listed as questionable to suit up against the Hawks with an ankle injury. He’ll be a game-time decision, along with J.J. Redick (back).

Some more details on his injury:

And another update (at 6:15 p.m. ET):

The spread, which opened at 76ers -12.5 at home, is already down to -10.5 at most places (or off the board). The total has held firm at 232.

We don’t have definitive word on Embiid’s status, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the 76ers played things cautiously with their star center, especially against a 12-29 Hawks team. Even with Embiid out, they’d still be sizable favorites to win.


Betting Impact

Embiid is very important to the 76ers, as evidenced by his +12.6 on/off court point differential — the 94th percentile of players this year. The 76ers are 5.8 points per 100 possessions better on offense and 6.8 points/100 better on defense with him on the floor vs. off.

Without Embiid, the 76ers get out in transition a bit more, and they push off live rebounds 5.3% more often. As such, despite the expected hit in offensive efficiency, the 76ers could make up for it by playing faster and getting easier buckets against a Hawks squad that allows the most transition opportunities in the league. It’s no surprise the total hasn’t dropped significantly.

According to our NBA power ratings, we have Embiid worth about four points to the spread, although that could be muted against one of the league’s worst teams.


Fantasy Impact

Here’s the news blurb from our FantasyLabs NBA page:

Embiid tweaked his left ankle in Wednesday’s loss, and he’s been downgraded to questionable vs. the Hawks on Friday. JJ Redick (back) remains questionable, and Amir Johnson (migraine) is listed out.

Redick missed the past two games, and Furkan Korkmaz started both with uneven production. Jimmy Butler has seen the biggest usage rate bump (+4.1%) among all Sixers players this season with Redick off the court.

If Embiid is unable to play, Ben Simmons and Butler will be solid options against a Hawks team that is among the worst defensively this season. Jonah Bolden and Mike Muscala will likely consume most of the center minutes with Johnson already ruled out.

With Embiid and Redick off the court, Butler and Simmons have led the Sixers with 1.29 DraftKings points per minute.

For the fastest injury update information, make sure to follow our NBA twitter feed. We’ll quickly update projections in our NBA models as well.

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