Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Andre Drummond Points, More
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
- Friday night's seven-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on 76ers PF Dario Saric, Pistons G/F Reggie Bullock, Pistons C Andre Drummond, Kings SG Buddy Hield
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Friday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s seven games:
- Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
76ers PF Dario Saric
The Pick: Over 12.5 points (-114)
Saric has averaged just 10.5 points per game this season but looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression moving forward. He’s shot 35.3% from the field and 27.4% from 3-point range, both of which are drastically lower than his marks from last season.
Saric should also see a slight bump in minutes with backup PF Mike Muscala out of the lineup, and Saric played just under 36 minutes with Muscala out of the lineup in his last game.
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Charlotte Hornets, with the 76ers’ implied team total of 115.75 points ranking second on the slate.
Saric isn’t going to shoot this poorly forever, which is creating some value with this line. I love the over and would play it up to -170.
Pistons G/F Reggie Bullock
The Pick: Under 10.5 points (-115)
Bullock was a solid producer for the Pistons last season, but his spot in the rotation under new head coach Dwane Casey appears to be dwindling.
He’s played 18 minutes or fewer in each of his past two games and is currently projected for just 20 minutes in our NBA Models.
Bullock has a great matchup today vs. the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, but it’s hard to see him hitting the over if he continues to play reduced minutes.
This is the only prop with a Bet Quality of 10 in the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool, and I’d play this up to -180.
Pistons C Andre Drummond
The Pick: Over 18.0 points (-115)
Drummond was a fixture in this piece early in the season, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s having the best offensive season of his career, averaging 18.9 points per game, and the only things that have been able to slow him down are foul trouble and Joel Embiid.
He should have his way with the Hawks today. Atlanta doesn’t have anyone who can match up with Drummond’s strength and athleticism on the interior.
Drummond has scored at least 18 points in 75% of his non-Philly games this season, so I think this prop is a steal at -115. I like the over up to -170.
Kings SG Buddy Hield
The Pick: Over 19.0 points (-130)
Hield has been getting buckets all season, averaging 20.1 points per game. That includes scoring at least 19 points seven straight games, and tonight’s contest vs. the Timberwolves should feature plenty of scoring: The over/under of 232 points is the highest on the slate by a significant margin.
The Wolves could also be without Jimmy Butler, which would leave them without their best perimeter defender.
I don’t get this line given how Buddy Buckets has scored the ball lately. I like the over up to -145.