Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: Bet Overs in Bucks-Warriors
Photo credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant
- Thursday night's four-game slate features three NBA player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Warriors PG Stephen Curry, Warriors SF Kevin Durant and Thunder SF Paul George.
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Thursday’s best props focus on two of the slate’s four games:
- Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Warriors SF Kevin Durant
The Pick: Over 6.5 assists (+110)
In eight games without Draymond Green over the past two years, Durant has averaged right at 6.5 assists per game, per the FantasyLabs On/Off tool. That’s right at the number as a baseline, and the over on the prop gives plus odds.
Importantly, that doesn’t account for tonight’s game environment. The Warriors’ game against the Milwaukee Bucks currently has an over/under of 240.
Our BetLabs database, which goes back to the 2004-05 season, houses 16,707 regular season games. Just 22 of those (0.13%) of those have closed at 240 or higher. So it’s safe to say this game will have some points.
Further, per Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors and Bucks rank 29th and 30th, respectively, in 3-point frequency allowed. Literally any pass could lead to an assist in that environment, so I’ll take the plus odds here. I’d play up to -130.
Thunder SF Paul George
The Pick: Over 4.5 assists (-130)
We have George projected for 5.0 assists, which seems about right considering where his rates have been in the five games without Russell Westbrook over the past two years.
Perhaps more importantly, George has posted a 34.8% usage rate during those games, which indicates just how much he’s running the show without his star teammate, who has been ruled out tonight with a sprained ankle.
He’s been at four assists or more in four of his last six games, and last night Dennis Schroder, who will also run the offense sans Westbrook, recorded exactly zero assists in 34 minutes of action.
The Rockets rank a miserable 25th in halfcourt defense this year, and they’ve allowed the second-most transition opportunities due to steals. I liked this prop a lot more when it was 4 (-143), but it still has a little value at the current number.
Warriors PG Stephen Curry
The Pick: Over 28.5 points (-130)
The same argument I made for Durant’s prop above largely applies here to Steph’s scoring prop: I think sportsbooks are perhaps underrating Draymond’s absence and the scoring environment of this high-total game. Just mass bet the overs in this one.
In 627 minutes of the past two seasons with Draymond off the floor, Steph has averaged a robust 34.1 minutes per 36 minutes. We have him projected right above 36 tonight in our FantasyLabs models.
And again, it’s hard to overstate how important the Bucks’ defensive scheme under new head coach Mike Budenholzer is to this prop. They sell out protecting the paint and thus are dead last in 3-pointers allowed. That seems like not the best scheme against the best shooter in NBA history. I’ll play this up to -160. He’s going for 30.