Celtics-Warriors Betting Preview: Will Boston Turn Things Around?

Betting Odds: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors

• Spread: Warriors -8
• Over/Under: 229.5
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TNT

The Boston Celtics are absolutely reeling right now, losing five of their past six games, including a drubbing at home by Houston.

Can they turn things around against the defending champs? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

Did you know? The Warriors' season win total closed at 59 (Westgate). They're 44-19 and will need to finish the season 19-0 to hit the over. — John Ewing

In the first three seasons of the Steve Kerr era, the Warriors went 67-40-2 against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning record in the regular season.

They're 28-49 ATS in this spot over the past two seasons.— Ewing

The Warriors return home after a four-game East Coast trip during which they went just 2-2 straight-up, losing both games in Florida to the Heat and Magic.

The Warriors are 13-2 straight-up but just 5-10 ATS in their 15 home games immediately following at least a four-game road trip under Kerr. — Evan Abrams

Against the league’s best teams (win rate of 60% or better), the Celtics have gone 75-56-2 (57%) ATS under Brad Stevens in the regular season. This includes 39-26-1 (60%) ATS on the road in this situation. — Ewing

The Celtics are 7-3-1 ATS against the Warriors under Stevens, covering by an average of 5.3 points. The under is 9-2 (81.8%) in those 11 games, going under the total by an average of 10.2 points. The under has hit in six consecutive games. — Abrams

Mears: Is There Any Value on Tonight's Spread or Total?

Sheesh, this is a terrifying game to bet.

The trends are compelling; they basically indicate that the Warriors have been terrible regular-season bets against the league's best teams as of late while the Celtics have been terrific ones.

However, the Celtics couldn't be much worse than they've been lately.

The Celtics got worked by the Rockets at home on Sunday and have dropped five of their past six games. They've ranked 29th in the NBA with a -6.8 point differential over that stretch, including 29th on offense and 14th on defense.

In that Houston-Boston betting guide, I wrote out my general thoughts on the Celtics offense and its struggles. Not much has changed since I wrote this section:

Put most simply: The Celtics just don’t do anything with ease offensively.

Even on the year, in which they rank fourth in point differential and 10th on offense, there are some glaring weaknesses. For starters, they’re really bad at rebounding (especially on the offensive glass) and getting to the foul line. Further, they almost never get to the rim, ranking 27th in the league in frequency of shots at that location.

The Celtics fine in terms of corner-3 rate, but they’re dead last in actually hitting them.

You probably get the point: Nothing is easy for the Celtics given their current offensive scheme, and that sets them up for a ton of room for error. They’re almost wholly reliant on hitting jump shots — especially in the mid-range — and if those don’t go down, there’s no Plan B.

They’re kind of like the Warriors in that way. Golden State is certainly not offensively optimized, especially in relation to what it should be with perhaps three of the best shooters in NBA history. Instead, the Dubs rely on their talent to overcome poor optimization.

The good news for Golden State is the talent is overwhelming and almost always overcomes it; the bad news for the Celtics is that they aren’t the Warriors. Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum are good, no doubt, but they aren’t Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant.

Now the Celtics will face those very Warriors, who are now back at home after an extended East Coast road trip. It doesn't look good.

Of course, the Warriors could be down Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala, who are both questionable to suit up. But to be honest, I'm not sure that'll matter that much in a regular-season game.

Take a look at the on-court/off-court differentials for their main players this season:

• Kevin Durant: +14.6 (97th percentile)
• Stephen Curry: +12.2 (95th percentile)
• Andre Iguodala: +7.2 (85th percentile)
• Draymond Green: +2.6 (67th percentile)
• Klay Thompson: -6.5 (20th percentile)
• DeMarcus Cousins: -7.7 (16th percentile)

The Warriors will certainly miss Iggy and his defense, but Klay is having quite the down season, especially shooting. He's a great player, no doubt. But there are diminishing returns on value on great teams.

In general, if the Dubs have Curry and Durant, they're going to do just fine.

Given all the analysis above, the Warriors seem like a worthy bet. But man, those long-term trends on these teams are terrifying. The Dubs are almost never good investments.

Instead, I'll probably look at the total, which is up to 230.

If we see the Boston team of the past two weeks, there won't be much scoring — especially if Iggy is able to suit up. The spread could be worth it if the public money on Boston pushes it to the -7 range. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.