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Celtics-Timberwolves Betting Preview: Value in the Over/Under?

Dec 01, 2018 1:29 PM EST

Betting odds: Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Spread: Timberwolves -2.5
  • Over/Under: 217
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV

>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The 11-11 Timberwolves — who are playing very well since trading away Jimmy Butler eight games ago — will host the 12-10 Celtics on Saturday. The over/under in this game has shot way up. Is that right, or is there now value on the under?

Our analysts discuss.


Mears: How I’m Betting the Over/Under

Over the past 10 games, the Timberwolves are 7-3 against-the-spread but just 2-8 to the over. Over that span, they have the second-best Net Rating (+7.2) behind only the Thunder and Nuggets. The Wolves’ defense ranks second, allowing just 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

During the past game eight games specifically, the Wolves have allowed only 98.6 points/100. Before this run, however, the Wolves owned one of the worst defenses in the league, which you can tell by the fact that they still rank just 18th on defense on the season despite the recent domination.

In analyzing the drastic splits between the beginning of the season and now, thankfully there’s an easy explanation: The Wolves traded Butler for Dario Saric and Robert Covington eight games ago.

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Credit:

Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Robert Covington

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-2.5
215.5
-2
218.5
-2
214
-3.5
220
-1.5
214
-1.5
213.5
219.5
-5
217
-6
221
-8.5
224.5
-6
205.5
-3
200.5
-3.5
232
-1
234
+2.5
223
-10
226.5
-9.5
209.5
-5.5
212
-8.5
-2
228
-3.5
227
227.5
-6
227.5
-6.5

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