Bucks vs. Hornets Odds & Betting Pick: Will Milwaukee Continue to Be a Wrecking Ball?
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
- The red-hot Bucks (-12.5) take on the Hornets on Sunday afternoon in pursuit of a big road win against a struggling opponent.
- Milwaukee has been incredible against the spread this year, but does that mean that they are safe to cover the very generous -12.5 line?
- See our full betting analysis below.
One angle for Sunday based on matchups and trends…
Bucks at Hornets Odds & Pick
- Spread: Bucks -12.5
- Over/Under: 218
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: The Bucks destroy these teams
Since Mike Budenholzer took over in Milwaukee, the Bucks have been a double-digit road favorite 14 times. They are 9-5-1 (64%) ATS in those spots. If we expand it to more than a two-possession favorite (-6.5), they are 22-10-1 (69%) ATS. And if they’re more than a two-possession favorite vs. an East team, they are an incredible 16-4-1 (80%) ATS.
Charlotte is 6-13 (31.6%) vs. teams with a winning percentage over 60% this season and just 1-5 at home. The Hornets are 6-9 ATS this season as a double-digit dog.
Khris Middleton is probable, Giannis Antetokounmpo is active, but the Bucks have proven in the past month that they can clobber the spread even without those two guys.
The Hornets are -13.3 in spread differential vs. teams top five in offense and defense this season, via Cleaning the Glass. The Bucks’ average margin of victory vs. teams under 40% win percentage is 15.
In those games, the Bucks have put up 122 points per game. The Bucks’ team total today is just 115. Milwaukee is also 24-0 straight up vs. teams under 40% win percentage this season.
Charlotte’s interior defense is among the worst in the league, facing a team that constantly pressures the rim. Charlotte’s offensive is predicated mostly on pick and roll and spot-ups. Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham may have big games facing the Bucks’ drop coverage, but no one else is likely to put up numbers outside of PJ Washington.
There’s a reason this spread is so high: The Bucks annihilate these teams. I’m never really looking to bet dominant teams against basement dwellers, but this is an exception, given how much the matchup tilts in their favor.
If Middleton rests this game, I still like Milwaukee, especially at what will be a lower spread. The Bucks are just that good. Editor’s note: Middleton was ruled out around 11:45 a.m. ET.
THE PLAY: Bucks -12.5; Bucks team total over 115