Nuggets-Blazers Betting Preview: How to Bet This Over/Under

Nuggets-Blazers Betting Preview: How to Bet This Over/Under article feature image

David Richard, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Paul Millsap

Betting odds: Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers

  • Spread: Blazers -2
  • Over/Under: 213.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

In a late nationally televised game, the 14-7 Nuggets will travel to Portland to take on the 13-8 Blazers. Denver has been the most profitable under team in the league this season. Will that be the case again tonight?

Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The Blazers have failed to cover their past five games. As coach of the Blazers, Terry Stotts has struggled mightily at home when on an against-the-spread losing streak, going 10-20 ATS when the Blazers are on at three-plus game ATS losing streak, losing bettors 10.6 units to make him the NBA’s least profitable coach in this spot.

The Nuggets are 14-6-1 (70%) to the under in their 21 games this season, profiting bettors 7.5 units to make them the most-profitable team to the under. The under is 7-1-1 in their road games, going under the total by an average of 12.1 points. Evan Abrams

The over/under opened 214.5 and has been bet down 213.5 even though 80% of bets are on the over as of writing (see live data here).

Since 2005, when 40% or less of bets are on the under in division games but the line decreases by one or more points, the under has gone 318-224-5 (59%). John Ewing

Mears: How I’m Betting the Over/Under

Portland ranks 14th in pace this season while Denver sits at 25th. But both teams heavily rely on pounding the glass, especially on the offensive end: The Nuggets rank third in offensive rebound rate; the Blazers are ninth.

A slow pace and reliance on rebounds for extra possessions seems like a recipe for unders, which has been the case this season. As Evan highlighted above, the Nuggets are 7-14 to the over. The Blazers are 5-6 to the over at home.

These teams primarily operate in the half court, which decreases the downside for an offense. Teams that get out in transition can withstand a poor shooting night, but halfcourt teams don’t get those. Plus, defenses are set.

And this is by design.

The Blazers and Nuggets rank 28th and 27th, respectively, in frequency of possessions they push off a live rebound. Combine that with the fact that neither team really gets steals — and the face that they’re both in the top half of the league in protecting the ball — and this game looks like it should be a slow-paced, halfcourt affair.

I could go on: Denver is the best team in the league at defending 3-pointers; Portland allows the second-fewest corner-3s. But you get the point.

Outside of a hot shooting night, this game will be slow-paced, and I think 213.5 might be a couple points too high given the matchup. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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