Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Luka Doncic Assists, More
Photo credit: Shane Roper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Luka Doncic
- Friday's nine-game NBA slate features three player prop bets that offer value.
- This piece will focus on Knicks PF Noah Vonleh, Mavericks G Luka Doncic, and Jazz PF Derrick Favors.
Friday’s best NBA player props focus on three of the slate’s nine games:
- Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Knicks PF Noah Vonleh
The Pick: Over 9.5 rebounds (-114)
Vonleh bounced around the league for his first few seasons, but appears to have found a home with the New York Knicks. He’s averaging career-highs across the board and should a boost in rebound production today with Enes Kanter out of the lineup.
He’s increased his rebound rate by a team-high +2.8% with Kanter off the court this season, resulting in an average of 13.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. Vonleh was limited to just 18.8 minutes in his most recent game but had recorded at least 10 rebounds in seven of his prior eight contests.
The Pacers are a mediocre matchup — they rank 12th in team rebound rate this season — but this spot is still too good to pass up. I like the over up to -175.
Mavericks G Luka Doncic
The Pick: Over 5.5 assists (-156)
Doncic has been fantastic as a rookie, averaging 19.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. Add in the fact that he’s just 19 years old, and it’s easy to see why people are so excited about his future.
He should get the opportunity to run the show for the Mavericks tonight with Dennis Smith Jr. out of the lineup. He’s increased his assist rate by +7.2% in games without DSJ this season, resulting in an average of 7.5 assists per 36 minutes. He’s handed out five assists or fewer in each of his past six games, which makes this the perfect time to buy low on the wunderkind.
Doncic is a special player, and he’s been at his best this season with Smith Jr. out of the lineup. This prop is already juiced pretty high, but I like the over up to -175.
Jazz PF Derrick Favors
The Pick: Over 7 rebounds (+105)
The Jazz are extremely shorthanded in the backcourt right now, which could turn out to be a positive for Favors on today’s slate. Jae Crowder could wind up spending more of his time on the court playing SF as opposed to PF, which could result in a couple additional minutes for Favors. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, and he’s played just 27 minutes or greater in six of his first 41 games this season.
Favors has averaged 6.9 rebounds in just 23.3 minutes of playing time this season, so the potential for a few extra minutes is enough to make this prop appealing at better than even money.
This prop still carries a bit of risk, so I’d be wary of playing it above -120.