Warriors-Nuggets Betting Guide: A Case for the Over/Under

Warriors-Nuggets Betting Guide: A Case for the Over/Under article feature image

David Richard, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Paul Millsap

Betting Odds: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

  • Spread: Pick’em
  • Over/Under: 228
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The Nuggets and Warriors — who are tied atop the Western Conference with 29 wins each — will face off on Tuesday night.

These teams just met in Denver, with the Nuggets getting the win. Will we see a repeat performance, or will the defending champs bounce back?

Betting Trends to Know

The Warriors have gone 10-7 straight-up and 9-8 against the spread when facing an opponent with a better record under Steve Kerr (including playoffs). As a road favorite in these games, the Warriors are 2-3 SU and ATS. John Ewing

The Warriors beat the Mavericks in their last game, 119-114, but failed to cover the six-point spread in Dallas by just a point. The Warriors are just 2-10 ATS on the road against Western Conference teams, making them the least profitable team against the West ATS this season.

In the previous four seasons under Kerr, the Warriors went 70-61-1 ATS on the road against the West, including 40-31 ATS against teams above .500.Evan Abrams

Wob: How I’m Betting Tonight’s Over/Under

I’m sorry, what am I missing here? This is not the high-paced Mile High Nuggets of old. This Denver team is a defensive fortress that forces you to play its gritty, half-court style and funnels you into the paint where the Agent of Chaos awaits any prospective rim-attacker.

The Nuggets are fourth in points allowed per game, 10th in Defensive Rating and are the third-slowest paced team in the entire NBA. The last time they played the Warriors in Denver, the final score was 100-98.

This is a potential Western Conference Finals matchup; it looked that way the first time they faced off and, more importantly, it played that way.

Halfcourt offenses. Rim warfare. Game 7.

While I don’t think the total will stay under 200 again, expect this game to resemble those Knicks-Heat Sunday matinee NBA on NBC games where every bucket feels like a world war.

If the total goes over, it’s because the teams just couldn’t miss all night. I’m willing to bet against it. Rob Perez

Mears: How the Nuggets Match Up Against the Dubs

The spread movement on this game is really interesting. The Warriors are getting 75% of the bets and a ridiculous 94% of the money as of writing (see live data here). Still, the line has moved away from them, starting at Warriors -1.5 and moving to a pick’em this morning.

These teams just played in Denver, and the Nuggets got a hard-fought win. They really struggled to score, posting a 100.0 Offensive Rating (19th percentile), but they held the Dubs to 99.0 ORtg. The Nuggets shot 18.8% from the 3-point line, but thankfully the defending champs weren’t much better at 24.1%.

That largely fits with Denver’s defense this season, which has allowed opponents to shoot just 33.8% on 3s — the second-best mark in the league.

The overall defense is weird, but it might work against this Warriors offense. On the season, the Dubs rank 27th in frequency of shots allowed at the rim and 23rd in 3-point rate allowed. They’re specifically dead last in frequency of corner-3s allowed — the most valuable shot in the game.

That defensive profile is scary against a team like the Rockets, who are incredibly optimized in terms of shot location. But the Warriors don’t take shots at the rim; they don’t even take as many 3s as you’d expect. They’re mid-range heavy this season, and the Nuggets allow the fewest percentage of shots in that area.

There’s also these notable trends: The Nuggets are 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS at home this season while the Warriors continue to struggle ATS, going 18-25 thanks to large public support each game.

The Nuggets are a tough matchup for the Warriors, and while I wish they were still getting points, I do think they’ll play well, particularly their defense. I think that means the game will trend under, so I’m with Wob on that play. Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.