Warriors-Clippers Betting Guide: The Public Is All Over Golden State in DeMarcus Cousins’ Return
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant
Betting Odds: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
- Spread: Warriors -7
- Over/Under: 241.5
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
The day the NBA world has been waiting for is finally here: DeMarcus Cousins will make his Warriors debut.
What does his addition mean for the betting market and tonight’s spread and over/under? Our analysts answer.
Betting Trends to Know
With DeMarcus Cousins expected to return tonight, the Warriors have moved from 5.5- to 7-point favorites. Nearly 90% of spread tickets and dollars are on Golden State at the time of writing (see live betting data here).
Since 2015, when we began tracking spread dollar percentages, if a team is receiving 30% or less of tickets and dollars and sees the line move one or more points against them (Clippers +5.5 to +7), they have gone 94-56-3 (63%) ATS.
Plus, there’s this: Under Steve Kerr, when the Warriors receive 70% or more of spread tickets, they have gone 77-91-4 (45.8%) ATS in the regular season. — John Ewing
History tells us tonight is going to be a close one. The Warriors have won six straight games; the Clippers have lost four straight games.
Under Kerr, when Golden State has played a game in this spot (GSW on a six-game win streak, opponent on four-plus losing streak) 10 times, and the Warriors are 10-0 straight-up but just 4-6 ATS, with almost every single game coming within a few points of the spread. — Evan Abrams
The over/under between the Clippers and Warriors opened at 241 and is currently up to 241.5. There may be a small reason for this, other than Boogie.
The last nine games between the Clippers and Warriors have gone over the total by 16.4 points per game, although none of those nine games had a total higher than 234.5. — Evan Abrams
Here’s a fun fact: Tonight’s total of 241.5 will be the ninth over/under of 240 or higher just this season; there were eight over/unders of 240 points or higher in the 20 years prior to this season. — Abrams
Moore: Why I Like the Warriors Tonight
Pay close attention to how the Warriors have talked about Cousins. They’re genuinely excited for him — from Draymond’s “Hopefully it’s devastating … for everyone else” comment to the relative hype from the team. They want him to succeed.
The Warriors need reasons to get up for games. Embarrassing the Clippers used to be their favorite game of the year. That’s changed since Blake Griffin and Chris Paul were traded.
In this game, however, there’s reason to drive the opponent into the dirt. The Clippers are 22nd in net rating since Dec. 1. The reality is, this team simply isn’t that good. Laying -6 or -7 here seems easy.
One word of caution: This spread range is exactly where the Warriors have struggled. They are 3-15-1 ATS in games in which they are favored between 3 and 9.5 points this season.
But this isn’t the same Warriors. This is the Warriors with Boogie. — Matt Moore
Mears: Why the Warriors Could Be Undervalued by the Betting Market
I’m going to steal from my colleague Justin Phan, who I thought made a really sharp point in this piece about how DeMarcus Cousins should help the Warriors — and already has.
Kerr has played Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant more in preparation for Cousins’ return, and his addition will mean the Warriors stagger those two much less often moving forward.
That’s bad news for opponents, because as Justin pointed out, the duo has destroyed worlds the last four games:
- 120 minutes
- 380 points
- 146.5 (!!) Offensive Rating
- 68.1 effective field goal percentage
- 53.5 three-point percentage
- 3.8-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio
It’s not really a secret anymore that the Warriors’ bench kind of stinks — especially when it comes to shooting. As a result, Kerr divided up minutes between his two superstars to keep that shot-making on the court as much as possible. With Boogie, that’s less necessary.
That means not only will the Warriors obviously have the best starting unit in the league, but there will be no down time in which teams can catch up on the Warriors’ second and third strings.
I’ll go with the public in buying the Warriors, but not necessarily because Boogie is going to go off in terms of stats. In fact, his addition probably hurts the point-spread value of everyone on the team given the talent.
But rotations matter, and it’s possible that’s not properly priced into the market. — Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.