Fade the Public When Betting Warriors Games? Not Always

Fade the Public When Betting Warriors Games? Not Always article feature image
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Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Golden State Warriors are receiving 42% of spread bets in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals against the Toronto Raptors, as of Thursday evening.
  • See how you can profit from using public betting percentages to bet on the Warriors vs. the Raptors.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Golden State Warriors are the NBA’s most popular team to bet on against the spread.

Under head coach Steve Kerr (since 2014-15), the Warriors have gotten the majority of bets (more than 50% tickets, per our data) in 460 total games, the highest number by far of any NBA team.

Those 460 games represent 7.2% of all games in that span, also the most among any team, with the Cavaliers coming in second at 5.4%.

Of those 460 games, the Warriors have played 82 playoff games with the majority ticket count, also the most in the league over this span.

In total, the Warriors have lost bettors $654 against the spread in their 460 games with the majority ticket count (based on a $100 wager each game), with a 229-224-7 (50.6%) ATS record, according to our Bet Labs data.

In the playoffs, it gets a little better, but not by much, as the Warriors have gone 42-39-1 (51.9%) ATS, profiting $100 bettors just $99 in total.

Fading Golden State…?

On the flip side, how many times have bettors faded the Warriors against the spread in the past five seasons? Hint: not too often.

The Warriors have played just 49 games with the minority ticket count (fewer than 50% tickets) in total, including 19 games in the playoffs. The results are striking.

In the regular season, they are 22-8 straight up, but only 15-15 against the spread mostly due to the fact they have been listed on average as a 6.5-point favorite in those 30 games.

Here is a good life lesson: When the public bets against Golden State in the playoffs, bet against the public…

Under Kerr, the Warriors have played nine games with fewer than 50% of spread tickets in the NBA Finals. Eight of those games came against the Cavaliers, and Golden State won every game and failed to cover just once, beating Cleveland by 12.4 points per game.