Warriors-Raptors Betting Guide: Should Toronto Really Be a 9-Point Favorite?

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Betting odds: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors

• Spread: Raptors -9
• Over/Under: 223.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT

In what could be a preview of the NBA Finals in June, the 15-7 Warriors will visit the 18-4 Raptors. There's no Stephen Curry or Draymond Green, but we still have Kawhi Leonard vs. Kevin Durant.

Our analysts are here to break down the matchup.

Moore: What I'm Watching For Tonight

You can throw this one out of the title picture for the most part, given the absences of Curry and Green. However, this does provide a really interesting matchup to examine.

The Raptors, more than any other team, have a phalanx of defenders to throw at Durant. They Kawhi Leonard for starters, but if Leonard were to pick up foul trouble or if they needed more offense from him, they can slide OG Anunoby (who is probable for this game) or Pascal Siakam onto Durant.

How Durant does vs. this defense, in particular, is maybe the most intriguing component.

The Warriors are going to keep this one pretty vanilla. They don’t tip their hand against teams they expect to see down the road, and they think it’s possible they’ll be facing this team in June.

Also, it’s wild how good the Warriors are that they’ve lost as many as they have, have as many issues as they do with as bad a bench as they have, are probably losing this one (though +9 feels high to me) and yet we all kind of have to assume they’ll be in the Finals anyway.

Warriors exceptionalism is real, man. — Matt Moore

Mears: The Raptors Are Different This Season

Kyle Lowry historically hasn't had elite on/off numbers, mostly because the Raptors' bench units have been so dominant. Lowry was really good last season, but the team was actually 1.3 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor vs. off. That bench unit just crushed.

But this season? The Raptors are a stupid 17.2 points/100 better with Lowry on vs. off, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all players. They're 20.9 points/100 better offensively, which is the highest mark in the league.

Don't get me wrong: The bench isn't bad this season.

The unit of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Anunoby and Jonas Valanciunas has posted a +10.0 Net Rating in 60 minutes together. But other iterations, specifically ones without two lead ball-handlers, have really struggled. Thankfully, new head coach Nick Nurse has staggered the starters more and played 100% bench units less.

And that was the point of acquiring Leonard, right? The Raps always ran into problems in the playoffs because rotations shorten. Your starters have to beat their starters. And this season, the Raps might have the best starting unit in the league.

According to NBA Stats, among five-man units with at least 100 minutes, the combination of Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi, Siakam and Serge Ibaka have posted a +15.8 Net Rating, the fourth-best in the league. Exchange Ibaka for Valanciunas, and that unit has posted a Net Rating of +26.2, the second-best, behind only the Blazers' starters.

People will cite worries about the Raptors in the playoffs, but I don't think that applies anymore. They're a true title contender, and they'll likely show it at home against the defending champs.— Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

Curry hasn’t played since Nov. 8 due to a groin injury. The team has missed their MVP guard this season:

• With Steph: 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS
• Without Steph: 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS

The Warriors opened as 8-point underdogs. This is just the 11th time under Steve Kerr that Golden State has been a dog of four or more points.

In the previous 10 games, the Warriors went 2-8 straight-up and against the spread, failing to cover by an average of 6.9 points per game. And as dogs of six or more points under Kerr, the Warriors are 0-5 SU and ATS. — John Ewing

The Warriors last played on Monday night at home against the Magic.

Since 2005, playoff teams from the previous season that travel from the Pacific to Eastern time zone from their previous game to their current game are 65-83-2 (43.9%) against the first-half spread. Teams currently over .500 are 61-81-2 (43%) against the first-half spread in this spot.

It's worth noting that these playoff teams from the prior season that struggle in the first half are 85-62-3 against the second-half spread (57.8%) in this spot, too.

Before this home showdown against the defending champions, the Raptors played on the road in Memphis on Tuesday night. Toronto beat Memphis by eight points, covering the spread and shooting a season-best 60.9% from the field.

Did you know? Under Kerr, this will be just the second time the Warriors face a team coming off a game in which they shot at least 60% from the field. The other was March of last season against the Rockets in Houston; the Warriors won as 1.5-point underdogs.

Under Kerr, the Warriors have faced nine teams after shooting better than 55% from the field. Golden State is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 7.2 points per game.

Interestingly, their only loss in this spot was against Dallas earlier this season. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.