Grizzlies vs. Clippers Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions: Can You Trust LA at Home as a Big Favorite?
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant (12) of the Memphis Grizzlies.
- The updated betting odds for Monday night's NBA game between the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers makes the Clips a big favorite (spread: LAC -11.5), with the over/under at 233.5.
- The line for this game moved from Clippers -10 to Clippers -11.5 about 90 minutes before tip, when both Paul George and Patrick Beverley were cleared to play.
- Should you trust the Clippers as such big favorites after losing to the Kings at home this weekend? Our NBA experts pick out their favorite bets for this showdown.
Grizzlies at Clippers Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions
- Spread: Clippers -10
- Over/Under: 233
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: NBA TV
The Grizzlies are barely holding onto the 8-seed in the Western Conference, and they’re about to start the league’s toughest schedule over the final part of the season. Tonight’s test is a road trip to face a healthy, rested Clippers team.
Is it time to start fading the Grizzlies? Our experts discuss below.
Remember the ROY Race
Ja Morant’s odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year have been slipping since Zion Williamson’s return from injury. Before Zion got healthy, Morant was a -625 favorite (86.2% implied probability of winning). His odds are now down to -455. Zion’s odds have improved from +700 to +225.
The race could be decided by which team makes the playoffs. Memphis is currently the 8-seed in the West but has lost its first two games since the All-Star break. — John Ewing
Sharp Action Report
The public and sharp bettors seemed to be aligned tonight in this game. So far, 60% of the bets on the spread have come in on the Clips, who are getting a whopping 87% of the total money wagered.
That also aligns with the steam moves we’ve tracked today:
Bettors are all over the Clippers, steaming them at -9 and then again at -9.5, which has now pushed this line into double digits.
For the total, 55% of the bets are on the over, but nearly 70% of the money wagered is on the under. We tracked a steam move on the under at 234.5, and this line now sits at 233, which suggests even more sharp money given the public is on the other side yet it’s moved down.
Moore: Fade the Grizzlies?
I’m a little nervous here because the Clippers have lost three of four, including to some pretty rotten teams.
But the Grizzlies are 20th in half-court offense; the Clippers are 5th in half-court defense. L.A. is 23rd in fast-break points allowed per 100 possessions but 12th in defending per possession. That’s most of what Memphis does.
Without Jaren Jackson Jr., the little tip-ins and putbacks are decreased. The 3-point loss is significant. The Grizzlies are 26th in 3-point attempts and makes. This is not a formula for them to be able to put a big number up on the Clippers coming home after a frustrating road trip.
I don’t love the spread at 10 points, but I will take the under on the Grizzlies’ team total at 112.
Mears: How I’m Betting Tonight’s Game
I love the Grizzlies. It’s difficult to find a more exciting young core than Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke.
But they have a brutal schedule over the last part of the year and will really have to play well to hold onto the 8-seed in the playoffs, especially with Zion Williamson and the Pelicans surging right now.
What will make things even more difficult during this tough schedule is that Jackson Jr. is out for at least the next two weeks.
The data on him isn’t crazy or anything: With him off the floor, the Grizzlies have actually been 4.1 points per 100 possessions better than with him on. But that’s mostly due to starters/bench splits — the guys with the highest on/off differentials are Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton and Brandon Clarke.
What he does help is the Grizzlies’ shot profile. With him on the floor, the Grizzlies have shot 6.4% more 3-pointers, which is the highest differential on the team and one of the highest in the league. They just get more efficient looks with him out there spacing, and that’s a question mark tonight.
That’s especially true given the Grizzlies’ recent shot profile even with Jackson Jr. playing. Since Feb. 1, they have the fourth-worst expected field goal percentage on account of them having a league-low 23.4% 3-point rate. They’re 29th in actual eFG% at just 50.1%.
And if the Clippers are vulnerable defensively this year, it’s probably beyond the arc. They’re bottom-10 in 3-point rate allowed but have done a great job at limiting shots at the rim. Further, they have the second-best FG% allowed on mid-range jumpers. The Grizzlies will try their best to take shots at the rim and likely a bunch of mid-rangers, and that’s exactly where the Clips’ strength is.
Meanwhile, the Clips are really struggling right now, losers of three straight. The biggest issue in that span has been the offense, which I’m not actually that surprised about. They’re integrating both Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson into the mix, and both guys can be ball-stopping, high-usage players. I think they’re both pretty overrated anyway.
The Grizzlies like to play fast — both teams do actually — but with the Clippers at full strength, their offensive struggles with the new guys and Jackson Jr. out for Memphis, I think there’s a bit of value on the under here.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.