Hawks vs. 76ers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Are Sharps Buying Banged-Up Sixers at Home?
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid (21) of the Philadelphia 76ers.
- The 76ers are a 9-point favorite over the Hawks in the latest betting odds for Monday night's game, with the total at 227.
- The Sixers will be missing some key weapons, but can Philly's defense keep Atlanta under wraps?
- Bryan Mears takes a look and makes his 76ers vs. Hawks betting pick.
Hawks vs. 76ers Odds & Picks
- Spread: 76ers -8.5 [In PA? Bet now]
- Over/Under: 229
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: NBA TV
The Hawks took care of business last game against a Mavs team without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, and they could get another injured team tonight in the Sixers, who will definitely be without Ben Simmons and could be missing Tobias Harris as well.
Will the Sixers rally and continue to cover at home? Let’s break it down.
Betting Trends to Know
The Sixers are 26-2 straight up (SU) and 16-11-1 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. That said, they’re just 16-21-1 ATS as favorites.
All that said, the Hawks are just 10-20 ATS on the road and really struggle away from Atlanta.
Sharp Action Report
It seems the pros and Joes are at odds tonight. A majority (58%) of bettors are buying the points with the Hawks, but we’ve tracked a ton of steam moves on the Sixers spread already today.
This is an absolutely fascinating game in the betting market. As mentioned above, the Sixers have crushed at home this season and the Hawks have really struggled to cover on the road. That said, the Sixers are down Ben Simmons and could also be without Tobias Harris, who is a game-time decision.
What’s also interesting is that despite the huge steam on the Sixers, the line hasn’t budged too much. It’s still sitting at a consensus number of -8 despite steam hitting all around that mark. It’s not like the public is massively on the Hawks to warrant the market resistance, so this will be fun to monitor.
For the over/under, there’s been a steam move on the over at 228.5 but some resistance at 229.5, which moved it back down to where it sits now at 229.
How I’m Betting Tonight’s Game
I’m going against the trends here. We already know Philly’s extreme home/road splits …
- Philly at home: +11.6 Net Rating (3rd), 113.4 ORtg (12th), 101.8 DRtg (1st)
- Philly away: -5.9 Net Rating (24th), 105.2 ORtg (26th), 111.1 DRtg (11th)
As a result, the 76ers are 16-10-2 ATS (+19.7% ROI) at home vs. 8-20-1 ATS (-42.6% ROI) on the road. Interestingly, unders in Philly home games are 12-15-1 but 17-12-0 on the road. We’re going against all the trends here.
But I’m not sure those trends really apply given the current injury situation for today: Ben Simmons is out, and Tobias Harris is doubtful. That leaves the Sixers down two starters, and while they bolstered their depth in a couple trade deadline moves with the Warriors, it’s still very new for those guys.
To hammer that point home: Tonight’s starting lineup — we’re projecting a unit of Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Glenn Robinson III, Al Horford and Joel Embiid — has played a total of seven possessions together … ever. There’s still talent, obviously, but it’s a big downgrade from the starting unit plus there are potential chemistry issues given just the lack of familiarity.
The Sixers have also been atrocious offensively with Milton at point. They rarely get to the rim and don’t take many 3-pointers. They have a variety of ball-handlers available other than him like Raul Neto, Alec Burks and Richardson, but that’s a big talent drop-off from Simmons and Tobias — perhaps their two best offensive initiators — running things.
And perhaps most importantly, the Sixers have consistently run less with Simmons off the court; he likes to push in transition. They get out 4.8% more often, which is actually in the 99th percentile of all players this year. With those guys out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the majority of offense funnel through Embiid in the post, which is fine but inherently going to produce longer possessions.
Meanwhile, the Hawks continue to be a little better than their overall record and numbers this year. They played for a long time without their main guys, notably John Collins (and an injured Kevin Huerter). But their main unit with those guys plus De’Andre Hunter and (insert random wing) has been very good, posting a Net Rating above +10 with Cam Reddish as that wing, for example.
Look, I get all the trends. I’ve been hitting them all year for the Sixers. But the books and public know them as well, and it’s unrealistic to think that those ATS records will continue to grow. I would expect bookmakers to shade lines toward the Sixers at home and to their opponent on the road, which should either even things out or provide value on the other side moving forward. The NBA is an efficient, liquid market.
I also think the market may not be properly adjusting for the Sixers’ injuries here, especially the pace differential with Philly. Maybe I’m on the wrong side here — the spread has moved back to -8.5 — but I’ll take the risk on Atlanta and the under. Given where the public is likely to be, it might be worth waiting to see if this line balloons further.
Note: Tobias Harris was upgraded from doubtful to questionable. Make sure to monitor his status prior to tip.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.