Rockets-Bucks Betting Preview: Will Houston Get Revenge on the Road?

Betting Odds: Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks

• Spread: Bucks -3.5
• Over/Under: 224
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TNT

The 47-27 Houston Rockets will visit the 55-19 Milwaukee Bucks in Tuesday's marquee NBA matchup. James Harden and the Rockets are surging, winning eight of their last 10, but find themselves underdogs tonight against a Bucks team that is 30-6 straight-up and 22-14 against the spread (ATS) at home.

What's at Stake

The Rockets have rallied from a disappointing start to the year and currently sit third in the West, three back from the Nuggets and 3.5 from the defending champion Warriors. They have just a half-game lead over the Blazers, so they are very incentivized to stay in that 2-3 range to avoid the Warriors until the Western Conference Finals.

The Bucks have a sizable lead on the league with 55 wins, four more than the Raptors and five more than the Warriors. Holding the lead over the final weeks will ensure home-court advantage in every playoffs series.

Betting Trends to Know

Great teams like the Bucks that have won at least 70% of their games have struggled in non-conference matchups late in the regular season (March-April), going 139-165-1 (45.7%) ATS since 2005. — John Ewing

The Bucks are an NBA-best 44-27-3 (62.0%) ATS this season. But Milwaukee is only 14-13 ATS when playing a Western Conference opponent and 7-7 ATS when the team has a winning record like the Rockets. — Ewing

The Bucks are absolutely rolling right now, winning and covering the spread in their last two games while shooting a robust 52.9% from the field (over 50% in both games).

Since 2005, teams to shoot over 50% from the field in consecutive games have excelled when playing at home. Those teams are winning 70.1% of their next games on the moneyline, including going 156-127-9 (55.1%) ATS when their point spread is either under a five-point favorite or they are listed as an underdog. — Evan Abrams

Mears: How I'm Handicapping Tonight's Game

This is perhaps the most fascinating matchup in the NBA given how these teams scheme on offense and defense. The Rockets epitomize optimization, foregoing almost all mid-rangers in favor of 3-pointers, shots at the rim and getting to the line. Over the past couple of years, they've smashed NBA records in 3-point rate.

The Bucks, meanwhile, allow such a high percentage of 3-pointers on defense. They ranked first in that regard for most of the season and now sit third with 35.4% of opponents shots coming from beyond the arc.

The Rockets love to jack up 3s, and the Bucks love to allow them. This should play right into the Rockets' hands, right?

Well, in the first matchup, that wasn't the case. The Bucks won 116-109 in Houston. The Rockets did get up 48 ([) 3-pointers in that one, but hit just 18 of them for an OK 37.5% mark. The Rockets shot just 30% of their shots at the rim, which is the lowest mark in an NBA game this year. That was the Bucks' plan, and it got them a victory.

The key, as I wrote about at length here, is that Milwaukee doesn't just allow 3s — it allows the right kinds of 3s. It's an obvious statement to say an open 3-pointer from James Harden is much more valuable than one from P.J. Tucker, and the Bucks' pick-and-roll scheme is designed to drop to contain penetration and allow the "pop man" to fire away.

Here, Giannis is guarding Tucker and essentially lets him go in order to contain the more dangerous Harden:

Sure, Tucker hit that one, and so did Gary Clark here when the Bucks completely abandoned him to contain Harden:

But that is a battle the Bucks are fine waging. Tucker is an average shooter on low volume, Clark is at 29.8% this year, Austin Rivers is at 31.7% and so on. The more that Harden, Chris Paul and Eric Gordon aren't taking shots, the Bucks will be happy, and that's exactly what their defensive scheme is designed to do.

Of course, it's a risk-reward system, and sometimes poor 3-point shooters will get hot and role players will when the game. But the Bucks are playing the long game here and betting on the large sample of optimizing around getting the ball out of superstars' hands. Honestly, it's a great strategy.

As such, I think Milwaukee is the tougher matchup for Houston, and things can compound quickly. Houston long 3s means long rebounds, which in turn means transition opportunities for Milwaukee. Giannis thrives in those, and the Rockets are ill-equipped — and often don't even want to — handle them. — Bryan Mears

Moore: Why I Like the Bucks ATS

This matchup doesn’t lean Houston’s way all that much. The Bucks allow a big number of 3-point attempts per 100 possessions on the season, but that number is down since All-Star break from first overall to 12th. They are middle of the pack since All-Star break in 3-point makes allowed per 100 possessions. The Bucks have defenders to challenge Harden’s dribble (Bledsoe) and his step-back (Middleton, Giannis).

Defense is the big issue for Houston. Giannis can pick and choose his matchup because the Rockets switch everything. If it’s Capela, he can go by him and draw the foul (Antetokounmpo drew seven fouls in their first meeting this season).

If it’s one of the smaller defenders, Giannis can go through them:

With it being -3.5 tonight, flipping home-court advantage would put Houston as two-point favorites at home, and that doesn’t seem right. Milwaukee’s ability to protect the rim inside helps, and while Harden will get his by tearing Brook Lopez off the Bucks’ moorings, it won’t be enough. I like the value with Milwaukee -3.5. — Matt Moore

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.