Jazz vs. Rockets Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Is the Total Too High?
Photo credit: Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: James Harden vs. Jazz
Jazz at Rockets Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Rockets -3
- Over/Under: 232.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBA TV
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The post-trade deadline Rockets have been up and down, getting an impressive win Thursday in L.A. against the Lakers and then getting absolutely blown out Friday in Phoenix.
They’re back at home and should be at full strength against a Jazz team that has been equally unpredictable this year. Where’s the edge in this one? Our experts break it all down below.
Betting Trends to Know
The Rockets are 19-24 ATS this season as favorites, and the under is 25-17 in that spot. The Jazz, after a hot start, are just 3-6-1 ATS over their last 10, and they haven’t produced a ton of value on the road this year, going 13-14 ATS.
Moore: How I’m Betting This Game
This is absolutely a test-out game for the Rockets. When they traded Clint Capela, they gambled that no team could punish them enough to outweigh the benefits to their offense. Playing five-out, smallball has just been too successful throughout the years.
The Jazz have the size … but not the skill. The Rockets will switch everything, as they did in 2018 during that great run. From that point, Rudy Gobert will have a mismatch. Unfortunately, Gobert is just not a good enough 1-on-1 player to believe he will win that matchup, on multiple levels.
He has to establish position in the post when the defense switches, and then the Jazz have to be able to get the ball to him, and then he has to be able to finish it. He has some moves. He’s not useless down there. But he’s also not good enough to punish it.
But what if he does? What if he actually wins this matchup? What if Quin Snyder actually deploys a strategy to counter what Houston is daring?
On top of it, the Jazz are the third-best team in effective field goal percentage. They shoot the lights out. So they should be able to keep up.
But the Rockets this season are 7-4 (63%) ATS on the third game in four nights, and in D’Antoni’s Rockets career, Houston is 10-7-1 (59%) ATS after losing that second night of a back-to-back coming in. Houston is 10-7-1 ATS as a favorite vs. Utah in games Harden plays in since D’Antoni arrived.