Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet (Feb. 4): Will John Collins Get More Than 1 Assist?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

38-26-3, +14.64 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 7-6-0, +0.50 Units
• NHL: 6-3-2, +3.71 Units
• Golf: 2-3-1, -0.70 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
• Exotic: 2-0-0. +0.40 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet for Monday, Feb. 4: John Collins Over/Under 1.5 Assists

• Over 1.5: -125
• Under 1.5: -105

We had a great run with our Super Bowl 53 props, but it's time to transition away from the NFL.

For our first post-football prop, we return to the hardwood, where the action tips off tonight with the Wizards-Hawks game (7 p.m.  ET).

Several players in that game stand out in our FantasyLabs Props Tool, but Atlanta power forward John Collins really catches my eye.

Last year, Collins had just 1.3 assists per game, but in his second season, Collins has upped that number to 2.2 as his playing time has jumped from 24.1 to 30.0 minutes per game.

We have Collins projected for 2.4 assists, and this season he's had more than one assist in 23 of his 36 games (63.9%). With -125 odds, he has an implied probability of hitting the over 55.5% of the time, which is well short of his seasonal mark.

We have him projected for 31.2 minutes against the Wizards in our FantasyLabs NBA Models, so he should have his usual dime-dropping opportunities.

At 1.5, I’d bet the over to -145, but I wouldn't bet this if the line moved to 2.0.

The Pick: Over 1.5 (-125)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.