Lakers vs. Warriors Betting Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Will LA Cover the Double-Digit Spread on the Road?
Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: A close up shot of LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers at Warriors Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Lakers -13.5
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ABC
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
This is one of those games where you really wish the Golden State Warriors weren’t the unluckiest team in the NBA this season. They face the Lakers at home after making several moves at the trade deadline, including trading for Timberwolves guard Andrew Wiggins.
Can they be competitive against the top team in the Western Conference? Our experts detail their betting strategies for tonight’s matchup below.
Betting Trend to Know
The Lakers (38-12) are 14-point favorites at the Warriors (12-40). Historically, bad teams like Golden State that have won 25% or less of their games have been good bets against great teams (won at least 70% of games).
Since 2005, bad teams like the Warriors in this situation have gone 336-266-10 (56%) against the spread. Double-digit home underdogs in this scenario are an even better 51-31 (62%) ATS. — John Ewing
Wob’s Weekly Battle
this week's bet for LAL/GSW is Draymond Green total points (+200) vs. LeBron James total assists (-200)
here is what yall decided i should take in the moment. im on Draymond. @PointsBetUSA is going to boost the odds. going to keep track of your record. if you lose i will be mad. pic.twitter.com/FgZpRv1fPR
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) February 8, 2020
Bryan Mears: Don’t Trust Wiggins Too Much Tonight
D’Angelo Russell is gone, as well as Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks — three of the best scorers on the team and about the only guys who had any chance of creating shots for themselves or others.
The Warriors now will lack that creation, and we’ll see if Draymond Green (questionable with back tightness) and Andrew Wiggins (hopeful to play but has to clear some trade things) will even suit up to help.
In an admittedly small sample size, without Russell, GR3 and Burks, the Dubs have really struggled to score, ranking around the 30th percentile. All of those lineups together have posted a 45.3% eFG%, which is beyond bad — one of the worst marks you’ll see. What makes those numbers worse … they’ve come against largely bench units!
Now tonight they’ll have to face a Lakers team that ranks fifth overall in defense this season. They essentially start three centers in LeBron James, Anthony Davis and JaVale McGee, thus it’s no surprise they’re one of the best teams this season defending the rim.
The Warriors don’t feature a ton of guys who can get to the rim — operating the offense other than Wiggins and Draymond (who again may not even play) will be guys like Ky Bowman, Damion Lee, Jordan Poole and Eric Paschall.
Not one of those players is even an average shooter from deep this season. In fact, the Dubs’ four best players in terms of 3-point percentage this year have been GR3 (40.0%), Omari Spellman (39.1%), Burks (37.5%) and Russell (37.4%) — all of whom are no longer on the Warriors.
And even if Wiggins plays, remember that this is his first game with new teammates in a new city in a new system for the first time since his NBA debut a half decade ago. Expecting him to completely adjust on the fly seems optimistic at best, especially given everything we know about Wiggins and his game.
Of course, the spread here is high: The Lakers are 14-point favorites on the road. I think there’s value even on that number if one of those two guys doesn’t play, and I also think there’s value on the under.
And if you’re worried about the Lakers offense exploding, perhaps the best bet (especially if the guys are out) is the Warriors’ team total under.
Matt Moore: Doubling Down on Bad Wiggins
I gotta tell you. I will not be watching this game. The Warriors without Stephen Curry are a disaster wrapped in a burrito of sadness and that was before they traded Russell, Burks and Robinson.
The Lakers are going to be irritated by that loss to the Rockets. They’re 6-4 ATS after a loss this season. I need a play here, and I’ll make it simple. I’m fading Wiggins, who is set to debut tonight.
In his career, when Wiggins played more than a single minute, the Wolves as an underdog were 114-151-3 (43%) ATS and 61-209 (23%!) straight up.
It’s 14 points, so it’s not like I can really advise this. The Lakers are 0-2 ATS after a loss when favored by double-digits in the following game. I like Bryan’s suggestion above of the Warriors’ team total under, but after a loss, the Lakers are giving up 110 per game, and the Warriors’ team total is 105.
What I’m telling you is to stay away, but fading Wiggins is not the worst idea.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.