Moore: Rockets’ Ceiling Depends on Fixing Their Terrible Defense

Moore: Rockets’ Ceiling Depends on Fixing Their Terrible Defense article feature image
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Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Paul, James Harden

Betting odds: Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets

  • Spread: Rockets -5.5
  • Over/under: 224.5
  • Tip: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: TNT

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The Rockets are a mess.

Offense, defense, chemistry, the works. Compared to where they were last year — a historic level of offensive efficiency — this year's sixth-ranked offense is only so-so.

The real issue, however, is defense.

Houston accomplished something rare last season, combining one of the best offenses ever under Mike D'Antoni while also being able to get stops. That's gone, as Houston ranks 27th in Defensive Rating.

There was a thought that once they were back to something resembling full health, that would regulate itself. There were signs in early November. But then it fell off again.

More concerning is how many areas with which they've had problems. The Rockets ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per 100 possessions, 25th in second-chance points allowed per 100 possessions and 29th in opponent points in the paint.

They're 29th in defensive rebound percentage and 27th in opponent free throw rate. So while they let you get offensive rebounds and score in the paint at will, at least they also send you to the line a ton.

There's not one culprit for the bad defense; the team has failed in several places. It's scheme, it's execution, it's personnel. Sure, losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute hurts, but not replacing them with almost anything of standard value is far worse.

Last year, part of what made the season perfect was how Houston could accommodate for James Harden's defensive weaknesses. That's not happening now.

Clint Capela had a 103.8 Defensive Rating last year, which was terrific. That's up to 111.0 this season so far. With worse wing options to execute their switching defense and worse rim protection from Capela, you have a recipe for disaster night in and night out with Houston.

It's not all bad news, though: The Rockets are one of the best teams in the league at defending spot-up, catch-and-shoot shots. If the shot value chart goes 1) layups and dunks, 2) three-pointers and 3) free throws, at least they have No. 2 covered. But they have to do better with Nos. 1 and 3.

The Rockets' problems are widespread, but defense is the biggest gaping wound. They can focus on trying to get great at what their identity is again, but if they want to return to anything near the challenger to the throne they were last season, that starts with defense.

One more note: With James Harden on the floor for over 300 minutes, Chris Paul has a terrible Defensive Rating of 109.0. With Harden off the floor, that number drops to a stellar 98.2. Not all of this can be blamed on Harden, but his defensive slippage is certainly making a widespread problem even worse.

Tonight's betting angle: The over is 12-8 when the Rockets are favorites, as their opponents continue to outperform offensive expectations.

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Sean Treppedi
Mar 28, 2024 UTC