Bucks-Lakers Betting Preview: Can LA Cover Against the NBA’s Best?

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks- Los Angeles Lakers

• Spread: Bucks -5
• Over/Under: 240
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

A matchup between the best team in the NBA and the 10th-best team in the Western conference wouldn't be a noteworthy game under most circumstances. But when that matchup features arguably the best player of this generation, LeBron James, and the future face of the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo, it is must-see TV.

LeBron vs. Giannis has been a treat over the past few seasons, just check out the head-to-head averages in their past four meetings:

James: 33.3 PTS | 6.5 REB | 8.5 AST | 3-1 record
Antetokounmpo: 34.5 PTS | 10.3 REB | 6.0 AST | 1-3 record

Will the Lakers pick up a game in the standings at home against the NBA's best? Out analysts discuss.

What's at Stake

With 21 games left on the schedule, the Lakers are desperate for wins as they sit three games out of the playoff standings in the West. But the Bucks actually have an opportunity to make a statement with a win in Los Angeles on Friday night:

The Bucks have clearly been the best team in the NBA this season, but an opportunity to be the first team to clinch a playoff berth would certainly put the best teams out West on notice.

As for the Lakers, they have a lot of work to do to catch up in the standings and March will be a brutal month for them to prove that they can do it. You can track their odds to make the postseason here.

Betting Trends to Know

The Lakers face the No. 1-seeded Bucks who have won six straight, including 18 of their past 20 games. The Lakers have had success covering the spread against the best teams in the league this season, but have had serious trouble against the worst teams.

Lakers are 10-25-1 (28.6%) against the spread when facing teams at or below .5000. When the Lakers face a team above .500, they are 16-8 (66.7%) ATS this season, the second-most profitable team in the NBA behind just the Blazers. — Evan Abrams

When James moved to the Western Conference, his ATS troubles against the Eastern Conference made the flight to LA along with him.

This season, the Lakers are 5-14-1 (26.3%) ATS against the Eastern Conference, the least profitable team against the East this season. Dating back to last season with the Cavaliers, James' teams are a combined 34-54-1 (38.6%) ATS when facing the East. — Abrams

In the past five seasons, LeBron has played 274 regular season games and has been an underdog in 52 of them. His teams have gone 28-24 straight up and 33-19 ATS. — John Ewing

Milwaukee (47-14) has the best record in the NBA and has gone 35-23-3 ATS. Great teams (won 75% or more of their games) with winning ATS records are often overvalued late in the season. After the All-Star break (approximately Game 55 or later) such teams have gone 219-261-4 (45.6%) ATS since 2005. — Ewing

Mears: How I'm Betting Tonight's Game

I wrote before the Pelicans-Lakers game the other night that LA is such a difficult team to handicap at the moment, mostly because of LeBron. On the surface, the Bucks are more than four points better on the road than the Lakers. But that handicapping relies on the Lakers’ season-long metrics, and it’s possible that underrates them if James' “playoff mode” is indeed a real thing.

He was very good in that Pelicans game, going for 33-6-10 in 37 minutes, but even despite that, the Lakers failed to cover, and on the season they are just 12-17-1 ATS at home.

There are a couple other signs pointing toward the Lakers here: First, it seems sharp money is on them. Despite the Bucks getting 73% of the spread bets so far, the line has actually moved against them, going from -4.5 to -4 as of noon ET.

Further, it’s unclear whether Antetokounmpo will remain on a minutes limit; he played just 24 minutes in Wednesday’s overtime win in Sacramento.

But still, the Bucks continue to defy naysayers this season: They’re first in the NBA with a stellar +9.5 point differential — a legitimate title-contending number — rank second in Offensive Rating and rank first in Defensive Rating. It remains to be seen how they’ll do in the playoffs, but they have been the best team in the league this season, full stop.

Further, the minutes with the starters minus their star player have still been excellent. The Bucks sans Giannis have still posted a +7.2 differential, and the main lineup of starters — a combination of Eric Bledsoe-Malcolm Brogdon-Khris Middleton-Ersan Ilyasova-Brook Lopez — has posted a +16.2 point differential. Insert D.J. Wilson for Ilyasova, insert Sterling Brown for Brogdon, it doesn’t matter; this team is really darn good, top to bottom.

As a result, I have no issues with a bet on Milwaukee — really, a bet on the long-term metrics. I also like the over, which is getting sharp money and has already risen today.

These squads both rank in the top five in pace, and the Lakers are much better offensively with an engaged LeBron. It’s likely we see an up-and-down affair tonight in LA.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.