Wolves-Warriors Betting Guide: Will Healthy Golden State Cover the Double-Digit Spread?

Betting odds: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors

• Spread: Warriors -10.5
• Over/Under: 229
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

The defending champion Golden State Warriors are finally nearing full health, as they're expecting Draymond Green back tonight. They'll host the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are playing well since the Jimmy Butler trade.

Can the Warriors cover the double-digit spread? Our analysts discuss.

Locky: Why I'm Betting the Warriors Tonight

Whatever 'value' may have been on the Warriors in the betting market was potentially wiped out by their excellent defensive performance against Milwaukee on Friday night.

Or was it?

That win was Golden State’s third in a row and also its third straight cover. Now markets are back to double digits for the Warriors at home, with this game opening at -10.5.

To put that in perspective, during the 'rough patch' for the Warriors a couple weeks ago, they were -9.5 at home against Atlanta, -6.5 at home vs. the Kings and -6.5 at home vs the Magic. Now, we have -10.5 vs. a Timberwolves team that’s absolutely better than that group. Ah, the value of having Steph Curry back in the lineup.

But against Milwaukee Friday night, it wasn’t just the Steph effect; Golden State had its best defensive performance of the entire season efficiency-wise, per Cleaning the Glass. With Draymond Green set to return against Minnesota, that brings a lot of questions with it in terms of fit and rust, but he's obviously one of the NBA's best defenders.

And Golden State may be catching Minnesota at a great time, to be honest. After a consistent two weeks or so of excellent play after acquiring Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Jimmy Butler, the Timberwolves played very poorly to start their road trip against Portland, among their worst performances (especially on defense) since the trade.

Covington is nursing an injury but will play, and he’s been extremely impactful. Also, if you look at the real 'test' games since the Butler trade, there’s not a lot to hang your hat on for the Timberwolves.

Their four losses over that time are to Boston (by double digits), to Memphis (by double digits) and slightly more competitive losses to Denver at home and Portland (in their last game). Their best win is probably against Houston, a team that’s been completely unpredictable all season.

Quite frankly, I’m still not sure this team is that good, and they’ve just played the softest portion of their schedule for the season, in all likelihood. This is just their fourth road game since Butler left (they’ve played 10 at home).

This is a team that should get exposed against much better competition, and the Warriors are getting closer to playing their best basketball. I like Golden State -10.5. — Ken Barkley

Mears: Another Argument for the Warriors

Despite all of their injuries, the Warriors still sit second in point differential (+7.8) and first in offensive efficiency (116.4), per Cleaning the Glass.

I'm with Locky that there's still some value on the Warriors. Their season-long stats are just so unrepresentative right now.

Take their projected starting lineup for tonight, a combination of Stephen Curry-Klay Thompson-Kevin Durant-Draymond Green-Kevon Looney. That fivesome has played just 32 minutes together so far, outscoring opponents by 26.8 points per 100 possessions.

Their Big 4 — the above players minus Looney — have played only 386 of the Warriors' 2,598 minutes. That's less than 15% of the season.

Further, while the Wolves have had one of the league's best defenses since the Butler trade, there are some concerning data points about it moving forward.

First, over the past 10 games the Wolves are allowing the second-most "wide open" 3-pointers — classified as having a defender six-plus feet away. Opponents have hit them at a top-10 rate, but I'm not sure that will stop tonight. And more importantly, allowing that many attempts is a problem.

If we go down to "open" 3-pointers — a defender 4-6 feet away — it's not much better: The Wolves have allowed the fifth-most attempts, and opponents have even been unlucky on those, hitting just 29.1% of them.

To put a bow on it, Robert Covington — easily the Wolves' most important defender — is a game-time decision with a knee injury. This all sets up for a Warriors 3-point barrage in a statement game at home. — Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

This is the 11th game in the 2018-19 season that the Warriors have been favored by double digits. Golden State was 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games. But it's unlikely the Warriors continue covering these big spread at such a high rate. In the previous two seasons, the team went 45-57-1 (44%) ATS when favored by 10 or more points. — John Ewing

The Warriors are coming off their longest road trip of the season — a five-game trip mostly to the Midwest, during which they went 3-2 straight-up.

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have not performed well against-the-spread after playing that many consecutive games on the road (five or more). In that spot, Golden State is 2-11-1 ATS (15.4%), failing to cover the spread by 4.4 PPG and losing bettors 9.1 units, making Kerr the least profitable coach in the NBA by 3.0 full units. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.