Moore’s Sunday Angles: Michael Porter Jr. Will Get Buckets vs. Jazz (Aug. 30)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Porter Jr. #1 of the Denver Nuggets.
- One game remains on Sunday's NBA slate: Game 6 between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz.
- Michael Porter Jr. has been able to score very effectively throughout the series so far.
- See Matt Moore's prop betting pick for MPJ in Sunday's matchup below.
Betting angles based on matchups and trends for Sunday, August 30.
THE ANGLE: The Celtics’ Defensive Approach to Pascal Siakam
So the Celtics don’t have a real wing defender to put on Siakam, especially with Gordon Hayward out. They don’t have anyone mobile enough to counter him. However, Jaylen Brown did a fantastic job on him in the meetings Siakam played in.
Siakam shot 10-of-24 from the field with Brown defending him, just 41.7%. He shot 3-of-8 from three.
But what’s more interesting is how those shots occurred. Watch this clip.
OK, now this one:
One more, and I promise I’m done, and this one shows it the best:
Now, this is a perfectly reasonable tactic. Siakam is 6-foot-9, with a huge wingspan, a killer spin move, and a major size advantage on Brown. Brown fought him well, but Siakam was able to find little gaps.
In the post, it gets tough.
So the goal is to keep him as far out as possible. Brown wants him to take those shots.
Siakam will see this in film, of course, and he’ll likely work to attack. But whenever a team leaves a player open to shoot, it presents a challenge to an offensive flow. Passing up open shots at the end of a sequence disrupts the flow. Siakam and the Raptors will want to punish that decision.
Siakam took eight 3-point attempts in the two games, in regular-season minutes. He averaged five 3-point attempts per game in the regular season. Just based on attempts, there’s value even at -155.
THE BET: Siakam over 1.5 3-pointers (-155, DraftKings)
THE ANGLE: The Montrezl Harrell Rotation
The Clippers big man beasted in Game 5 as many of the Clippers did, scoring 19 points with 11 boards, and was a +34.
It was also the one and only time this series where the Clippers outscored the Mavericks with Harrell on the floor. Harrell plays consistently more in the second halves of games. He’s an easy pick and roll target for Luka Doncic, unable to switch or drop.
With Doncic having more time to heal his ankle and facing elimination, those minutes are likely to get tougher. The Mavericks outscored the Clippers in the second half of three of the series’ games, covering the second half spread in all three.
Game 5 was an outlier, brought about by both Doncic’s injury and the absence of Kristaps Porzingis due to his torn meniscus. The Mavericks don’t have a lot of options to replace his minutes, but it is notable that in this series, the numbers for Dallas with Boban Marjanovic are actually pretty good, even after the Game 5 destruction.
There’s also the possibility the Clippers have hit the Mavericks out of the gate like Game 5, and the Mavericks win the second-half close in garbage time.
You can wait to live bet to see if you get a preferable number, or take the +186 second half at FanDuel.
THE BET: Mavericks 2nd half ML or spread
THE ANGLE: The Clumsy Brilliance Of Michael Porter Jr.
I’m not sure that Michael Malone even wants to play MPJ. He’s a defensive disaster. There was one sequence in Game 5 where he managed to get lost on four separate rotations, then grabbed the rebound and in an eight-point game inside of a minute, tried to run it out in-between three defenders, turning it over.
But hey, he kept moving the whole time. The effort’s there!
But he’s mistake-prone. The Jazz are constantly targeting him on switches and in isolation. Using NBA.com’s admittedly wonky matchup data, Georges Niang is 7-of-9 against MPJ. Donovan Mitchell is 10-of-15. Jordan Clarkson is 6-of-11.
And yet, MPJ was a +18 in Game 5, with 15 points and 5 rebounds.
On some level, Malone knows that for all the kid’s mistakes, he needs the firepower, he needs the athleticism, and he needs the rebounding, especially since it’s an area of weakness for Jerami Grant.
Porter has an uncanny ability to generate points. Even being out of most of the playsets, he finds ways to scores. The points accumulate very easily for him, and he’s begun to figure out how to rebound better and better vs. Utah.
If MPJ was going to fall out of the rotation, it was going to be Game 5. Yet he played 33 minutes.
Anytime you have reason to think MPJ will play more than 30 minutes, you should take his over on points and rebounds if it’s below 25.
THE PLAY: MPJ points and rebounds over 19.5 (-108)