Moore’s NBA Betting Angles, Picks: Another Back-to-Back for Brad Stevens Wednesday
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Stevens and Jayson Tatum
- Matt Moore has plenty of betting angles for Wednesday's 9-game slate, including taking advantage of Brad Stevens' success on back-to-backs.
- He also has picks for Knicks vs. Hornets, 76ers vs. Cavaliers, Magic vs. Hawks and Grizzlies vs. Rockets.
- See all five betting angles and breakdowns, along with the picks Moore is making tonight, below.
Here are some betting angles for Wednesday’s NBA slate based on matchups and trends…
KNICKS AT HORNETS
- Spread: Knicks -1
- Over/Under: 206
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
ANGLE: The Delicious, Masochistic Torture of Betting the Knicks
The Knicks are, improbably, 4-0 as a road favorite ATS this season. The Hornets have been good on back to backs (7-3) and 4-1 as a home dog vs. teams under .400.
However, in most of those instances, they’ve been a 3-point dog or more.
The Knicks can usually hang with teams that can’t score, and these two teams are bottom-five in offense. New York’s defense is surprisingly frisky, and their frontcourt will have an easy time with Charlotte’s frontcourt defense.
THE PLAY: Knicks -1
76ERS AT CAVALIERS
- Spread: 76ers -7.5
- Over/Under: 216
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: OVERREACTIONS
The Sixers are without Ben Simmons and likely Tobias Harris to injury and that, coupled with the Sixers’ outrageously bad 9-20 road record, means that this line is lower than it probably should be.
The Cavaliers have won three of four and two of three since their coach decided he’d had enough. But Cleveland at home is 1-9 straight up and 4-5 ATS vs. teams over .500.
The Sixers are also 3-1 ATS without Simmons. When you look at the teams with a winning percentage below .400, the Sixers have lost to on the road, you get teams like the Thunder who turned out great, and teams like Washington and Atlanta who bring a lot of firepower.
The Cavaliers are not that. Cleveland is 24th in offensive rating.
This is definitely bucking the trends and the narrative feel, but the Sixers are simply still so much better than the Cavaliers, and I don’t trust the road narrative to hold true in all instances.
This line is just too short — Philly should at least be a double-digit favorite in this spot.
THE PICK: Sixers -7.5
MAGIC AT HAWKS
- Spread: Magic -2.5
- Over/Under: 228.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: DON’T MAKE IT EASY
The Hawks are an underrated offensive team that’s better than it looks because of injuries and suspensions. They’re also a truly dreadful defensive team that makes things look easy for the opponent. The Magic are a solid defensive team (No. 8 in defensive rating) that can’t score unless you make it really easy on them.
You see where I’m going with this.
Against teams with a defensive rating under 106.5, the Hawks are 16-20 (44%) ATS. Against teams with a defensive rating over 108, the Magic are 9-4 ATS on the road.
Now, the Hawks have been good (10-6) against the spread at home against those good defensive teams, but they’ve also always been a 3-point dog or more. Now they’re a short-dog vs. a Magic team that’s probably a little underrated.
I’m laying less than a possession with the better team with a better matchup.
THE PICK: Magic -2.5
GRIZZLIES AT ROCKETS
- Spread: Rockets -10
- Over/Under: 237
- Time: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
THE ANGLE: The West Is Overrated
The Grizzlies caught a bad run of it. They have the toughest remaining schedule by strength of opponent record. They lost Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke for two weeks. They traded Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill, who could specifically help in covering for those guys, in the Andre Iguodala trade.
All of this puts Memphis up against it. I’m always wary of tailing injuries because of how guys step up. But for Memphis, the guys who would step up were already traded. They’re down to Gorgui Dieng and Josh Jackson at the forward spots. It’s dire.
Meanwhile, the West is thought to be a bit better than it actually is. West teams are 31-21-1 (59%) this season as a double-digit favorite vs. other West teams, including 26-18-1 at home. The Rockets are 6-4 in such spots.
Houston will be able to take advantage with the missing forwards and attack the rim even more, and defensive lapses will open up the corners for their shooters.
THE PICK: Rockets -10
CELTICS AT JAZZ
- Spread: Jazz -5
- Over/Under: 221
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
ANGLE: Brad Stevens, the SEGABABA God
The Celtics under Brad Stevens are 43-19 ATS in his career on the second night of a back-to-back as an underdog, and 39-15 on the road. It has always been an area he’s placed emphasis on.
He’s been .500 or better every season in that spot against the spread except last year’s slow-motion trainwreck.
The Jazz are in an absolutely horrendous place right now. They don’t trust one another, they aren’t committed on defense, the rotations aren’t working, and on the season they’re 12-14 vs. teams over .500.
I wrote the above two paragraphs before a line was out, expecting the Celtics to be +1.5 if I got lucky. They are five-point-effing-underdogs. Utah is not a five-point favorite team over anyone over .500 right now. That is not a thing.
THE PLAY: Celtics +5