Wednesday NBA Betting Picks: Our Favorite Bets for Heat vs. Thunder and Clippers vs. Nuggets
Photo credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George
NBA action at the Orlando bubble is reaching the home stretch with just four games on Wednesday. Tonight’s slate is headlined by two national TV matchups: Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets.
Where’s the value? Our staff is here to break down their favorite NBA bets for today’s slate and has found angles in two games:
- 8 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- 9 p.m. ET: LA Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday NBA Betting Picks
Raheem Palmer: Heat vs. Thunder
|Heat odds||-3 [BET NOW]|
|Thunder odds||+3 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-148/+125 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||222.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
For the last remaining seeding games, I’m rolling with teams that have the most depth. With the strong possibility that teams rest their starters in the fourth, you want to play teams that can go 12 deep.
As a whole, the Heat are the better team. They rank sixth in Net Rating (+3.1) during this restart fueled by a 112.5 offensive rating and a 109.5 Defensive rating. OKC on the other hand has a -1.4 Net Rating behind a. 104.6 Offensive Rating and a 106.0 Defensive rating. Oddsmakers opened this line OKC -4 and it’s been since bet to Miami -1. I agree with the line move as my model makes Miami a 1 point favorite.
With the Heat playing the Pacers again on Friday after defeating them on Monday and possibly being matched up with them again in the playoffs, I view this game as their final true game of the season. I can’t imagine Erik Spoelstra will want to play his starters on Friday knowing he potentially has a seven-game series lined up against that same team next week.
Dennis Schroder has returned to the bubble, however it’s unlikely he’ll be cleared for OKC’s final two remaining games. With Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel on the injury report on the fence as well, per our Labs Insiders tool, I feel confident Miami will have the deeper roster in this game. I grabbed the Heat -1, but don’t see value on betting them at -3. Look to bet them live if the opportunity is there.
The Pick: Bet the Heat Live
Brandon Anderson: Clippers vs. Nuggets
|Clippers odds||-5 [BET NOW]|
|Nuggets odds||+5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-210/+170 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||229.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
The LA Clippers can clinch the No. 2 seed in the West with a win over the Nuggets. Remember the halcyon days when that would’ve mattered, or even been a reward? Normally it would mean home court advantage in the Western semis, but there is no such thing in the Orlando bubble.
Instead, the owner of the No. 2 seed is rewarded with a first-round matchup against Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, and the Dallas Mavericks, the best offense in league history.
Neither of these teams has real incentive to push for a win. The Nuggets can only move up to the second seed if they win their last two games and the Clippers lose their last two.
The Nuggets likely want to avoid dropping to the fourth spot and draw a potential matchup with the LA Lakers in the second round. But they’d have to lose twice with two Rockets’ wins for that to happen, and that’s not particularly likely either.
So what does that all mean? Not a whole lot, maybe, except that neither team has much on the line here. Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are out for the Clippers, but the Nuggets will likely be missing key guards and depth too.
In the end, I expect a relatively full effort from both teams for around a half, with the benches taking over from there — I like the Clippers’ starters and bench better in those matchups. I’ll take the Clips, but no further than -5.
The Pick: Clippers -5