NBA Betting Picks: Our Favorite Playoff Bets for Bucks vs. Heat and Rockets vs. Lakers (Sunday, Sept. 6)

NBA Betting Picks: Our Favorite Playoff Bets for Bucks vs. Heat and Rockets vs. Lakers (Sunday, Sept. 6) article feature image
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Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Westbrook #0 of the Houston Rockets.

It is officially do-or-die for the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 4 of their series with the Miami Heat. The Bucks need a win Sunday to keep their season alive after dropping three games to the Heat in Round 2. In the late game, the Lakers hope to jump start their offense after losing to the Rockets in Game 1 on Friday.

So, where’s the value today? Our staff is here to break down their favorite NBA bets for today’s slate and has found angles in both matchups:

  • 3:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
  • 8:30 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Sunday NBA Betting Picks


Odds via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Reed Wallach: Bucks vs. Heat

Bucks odds +2 [BET NOW]
Heat odds -2  [BET NOW]
Moneyline +110/-130 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 219 [BET NOW]
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC

Giannis Antetokounmpo has not been able to penetrate and has become too reliant on his 3-point shot, which is a luxury, not what makes him MVP. He is a 30% 3-point shooter, and probably shouldn’t be settling for three’s down the stretch.

If he is unable to go in Game 4 — our Labs Insiders tool has him listed as questionable with a sprained ankle — this becomes a play on Miami at any number -4. The loss of Giannis would not just be a talent loss, it would be a motivation loss. The Bucks may be throwing in the towel if the Greek Freak doesn’t go in an elimination game.

I think Miami knows they have this series mentally and it is showing on the court. After opening three straight games as around 5-point underdogs, Miami opened Game 4 at -1 in a closeout situation. I do think Miami is the right side, but I instead will be playing the Heat team total over.

It has hit through the first three games, and if Milwaukee is going to make an overhaul of their defense, they will make fundamental mistakes that will play into the Heat’s hand.

The Pick: Heat Over 110.5 (-104) — Play up to 111.5

[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]


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Brandon Anderson: Rockets vs. Lakers

Rockets odds +6 [BET NOW]
Lakers odds -6 [BET NOW]
Moneyline +200/-245 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 223.5 [BET NOW]
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC

Coming into the Rockets vs. Lakers series, I expected the Rockets to have a very good chance. The Rockets have the better offense, and right now, they sure look like the better defense too. Call me crazy, but if one team is better on both offense and defense, they sure seem like the better team.

This series is all about matchup problems, for both sides. Obviously the Rockets have no answer to the Lakers’ size. But LA has no answer for Houston’s speed and energy, and that showed in Game 1. The Rockets just out-hustled the Lakers.

Russell Westbrook is going to make his mistakes, but this team feeds off his energy and they played the Lakers even on the boards and outran them in defense and in transition. Do the Lakers have the stamina and conditioning to hang with these Rockets? If they can get outrun like that two days after a grueling Game 7 for Houston, I have serious doubts.

Whether the Lakers are i trouble remains to be seen. We just saw them blow a Game 1 and then sleepwalk through four wins against the Trail Blazers. The Rockets are really good, though, and the Lakers still aren’t hitting on all cylinders or getting contributions outside of their two stars. Maybe the Rockets aren’t the better team, but there’s just no way the Lakers are twice as good, and that’s what the Rockets +200 implies.

Do the Rockets really win only one out of three games against these Lakers right now? I don’t buy it. You’d think playoff LeBron James would have me convinced by now, but the playoff Lakers do not. They’re going to have to prove it before I come off these odds. I’d play Houston to +175.

The Pick: Rockets +200 Moneyline

[Bet the Rockets at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]


Malik Smith: Rockets vs. Lakers

If you’ve paid attention to Lakers Twitter, you may have seen some of the Danny Green slander floating around. It’s no secret that Green has been off from behind the 3-point line for the past couple of weeks.

He’s typically deadly from the corner, but his splits on those shots have varied wildly throughout the season, per NBA Advanced Stats:

Danny Green From the Corner 3-point Pct.
Before Shutdown 40.9%
Bubble Games 27.2%
2020 Playoffs 36.3%

He shot 2-of-7 from deep in the Lakers’ Game 1 loss, but all of those shots came from the corner. It’s pretty clear that the Lakers are trying to get him going with easy, confidence-boosting shots. Even with his struggles, the over/under on his 3-point makes prop is 1.5 at DraftKings for Game 2.

I’m willing to bet Green bounces back on Sunday night, especially since he topped this number in a game where he struggled and take the over up to -180.

The Pick: Green Over 1.5 3-pointers (-152)

[Bet Green now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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