NBA Betting Picks: Our Staff’s Best Playoff Bets for Clippers vs. Nuggets (Sunday, Sept. 13)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets and Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets.
Tonight’s one NBA playoff game is a Game 6 for the Clippers against the Nuggets, but the Nuggets have been playing every elimination game like it’s a Game 7. Can the Clippers put Nikola Jokic & Co. away today?
Our staff breaks down their favorite NBA bets for today’s slate and where to find the most value in this afternoon matchup.
Sunday NBA Betting Picks
Brandon Anderson: Clippers vs. Nuggets
|Clippers odds||-8.5 [BET NOW]|
|Nuggets odds||+8.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-375/+295 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||215.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
We have ourselves a series … or do we?
The Clippers are the better team in this series by a significant margin, and that’s obvious enough to anyone watching. The Nuggets have played harder and smarter, they’re better coached, and they’re more prepared. To counter, the Clippers are … just more talented. And usually, that’s enough.
The Nuggets’ two wins have come via mental letdowns from the Clippers more than anything else. The Clips blew out the Nuggets in Game 1 and thought this was a walkover, but the Nuggets used a huge first quarter in Game 2 to steal a win.
The Clippers dominated most of Game 5, took their foot off the gas pedal late, and the Nuggets surprised them with a big fourth quarter comeback. For 18 quarters in this series, the Clippers have been comfortable, holding the Nuggets 23.8 points per quarter outside of those two explosions that helped the Nuggets steal two games.
The Clippers are not going to screw around and let this get to a Game 7. They will win this one, even if they don’t cover. The under in this series is 4-0-1. I’ll grab the under here and parlay it with a Clippers win and get to the Clippers vs. Lakers series we’ve all been craving.
The Pick: Parlay Clippers ML and under 215.5 (+138)
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Malik Smith: Clippers vs. Nuggets
If you’ve watched this Nuggets team during this playoff run (or last year’s run), then you know they aren’t the quitting type. They seem to wake up when their backs are against the wall and Jamal Murray in particular has responded with clutch games when facing elimination.
Just take a look at Murray’s numbers in win-or-go-home situations in his career:
- 2019 Game 7 vs. Spurs: 23 points | 9-19 FG | 4 assists
- 2019 Game 7 vs. Trail Blazers: 17 points | 4-18 FG | 5 assists
- 2020 Game 5 vs. Jazz: 42 points | 17-26 FG | 8 assists
- 2020 Game 6 vs. Jazz: 50 points | 17-24 FG | 6 assists
- 2020 Game 7 vs. Jazz: 17 points | 7-21 FG | 4 assists
- 2020 Game 5 vs. Clippers: 26 points | 9-25 FG | 7 assists
He’s averaging 29.1 points per game and 5.6 assists in these situations and led the Nuggets in scoring in four of those six games. Yes, those numbers are slightly skewed by a 40- and 50-point game against the Jazz, but that just proves how high Murray’s ceiling is.
Murray hasn’t always been efficient in these games, but he is definitely not shying away from shooting the ball either. His median performance in these games is between 23 and 26 points. FanDuel set the over on his points prop at 24.5 points and I’m inclined to bet him at that number.
The Pick: Jamal Murray Over 24.5 (+112)