Friday NBA Odds & Picks (Nov. 1): Betting Analysis, DFS Strategies, Injuries, More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 4-0 for +1.5 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Clippers -4 and it closed at Clippers -5
• I bet Heat -1.5 in 1Q and it closed at Heat -1.5
• I bet Hawks under 104.5 team total and it closed at Hawks u104.5

I also live bet the under in the game at 213.5. Most of those Hawks bets were made later in the day (after I posted my article), as it was announced that Atlanta would be starting and relying on Cam Reddish to play point guard.

Reddish is certainly not a point guard; in fact, one of his big question marks coming out of Duke was his play-making ability. He's a 3-and-D guy right now, not an NBA-caliber offensive initiator.

As a result, I wanted to bet against him and the Hawks in a couple different ways. The first is the Hawks' team total. I bet that specifically as opposed to the game total because I was skeptical about the Hawks defense holding up. There was a scenario where the Heat ruined that total; I was more confident in the Hawks being bad, obviously.

I also bet the Heat first quarter spread, as Reddish in his first start at point in essentially his entire career was unlikely to come out of the gate playing well. I liked it better than the full-game spread, which I thought was a little less advantageous because of potential blowout/backdoor cover time. And finally, I live bet the game under once I saw the pace and Hawks offense.

It was a good night, but let's go ahead and jump into Friday's huge slate. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (-7.5), 215
• 7 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) at Orlando Magic, 215
• 7 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets (-4.5) at Brooklyn Nets, 244
• 7:30 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-10.5), 211.5
• 8 p.m. ET: Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls (-3.5), 215
• 9:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5) at Dallas Mavericks, 217
• 10 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz (-5) at Sacramento Kings, 213.5
• 10:30 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs (-7) at Golden State Warriors, 223

(Odds via PointsBet — claim your 200% deposit match, an exclusive promotion for Action Network users)

Let's start here…

I just can't do it. I know you're supposed to bet numbers and not teams, but unfortunately the team is on the bet slip when you have to make the final click. The fundamentals are still there: The Bulls have an expected effective field goal (eFG%) mark of 55%. That's one of the best marks in the league — their offense is getting some of the best looks in the NBA.

But they're posting an actual eFG% of 47%. Lauri Markkanen, a good shooter, is 21.2% from deep this season. Otto Porter (who is injured, so it's more excusable) is 23.8%. They should regress. But man, have they burned bettors so far with collapse after collapse in the second half. Their defense stinks.

Still, they are better than the Pistons with all of their injuries on a neutral court.

But I can't do it. (Fast forward to 7:59 p.m. ET and Bryan betting the Bulls.)

Let's talk about some things I've already bet or am looking to bet…

Under 215 in Bucks-Magic: It may seem scary to bet Bucks unders, as they're top-10 in both offensive efficiency and pace. But let's dive into the specifics of their pace a bit.

So far this season, they're averaging 13.37 seconds per possession — fourth in the league. They're 11th off missed field goals and fifth off made field goals. On missed field goals, it's mostly off missed 3-pointers, and they're predictably allowing a lot of 3s — that's the design of their defense.

That's a bit of a problem against the Magic, who are dead last so far in 3-point accuracy, but Orlando is merely average in 3-point attempts. The Bucks play very conservative pick-and-roll defense, dropping their bigs, which allows a lot of pick-and-pop opportunities for opposing big men.

But Orlando is unlikely to bomb away from distance given its personnel: In only one of the three games last year did the Magic exceed a 34% rate against the Bucks.

The Magic under head coach Steve Clifford are incredibly disciplined on defense, ranking second in overall efficiency and eFG% allowed. They're fourth in limiting shots at the rim, and the Bucks are dead last in frequency of attempts at the rim.

The Magic allow 3-pointers, but have been the best team defending them. Maybe that's a bit of luck, but their metrics on open shots aren't terrible.

Further, the Magic have allowed the second-fewest transition opportunities. On those, they've defended at the fourth-best clip. It makes sense with the wing athletes they have in Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.

Milwaukee wants to run, but Clifford is a smart coach and will game plan for that. Clifford's calling card is discipline; even his Hornets teams were that way.

And on offense, the Magic are dead last in pace so far this year. They're also dead last in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They're taking almost no 3-pointers, as mentioned above, instead electing to attack the rim — which the Bucks defense is specifically designed to prevent.

These teams went under this number in two of the three games last year, and with how these teams are playing and are designed on both offense and defense, I think this will be a slow-paced affair that will come down to made shots. Those shots could go in and ruin this bet, but I think the sharp side is the under.

Rockets at Nets: Here's the offensive efficiency and rank for the Rockets and Nets by quarter this year…

• 1st Quarter: Rockets 102.7 (20th) | Nets 106.5 (11th)
• 2nd Quarter: Rockets 128.7 (2nd) | Nets 113.5 (6th)
• 3rd Quarter: Rockets 123.6 (3rd) | Nets 118.7 (4th)
• 4th Quarter: Rockets 116.7 (8th) | Nets 87.3 (28th)

Let's ignore the Nets' fourth quarter woes for a moment and talk about the first quarter. Both teams start out more slowly and then pick up the pace.

It makes sense: The Nets have a good bench with Spencer Dinwiddie, maybe the best backup point guard in the league, and for the Rockets, the first quarter is when James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon play together the least. Gordon comes off the bench, but they sync up more often in the subsequent quarters.

If you want a piece of the over (and I think I do), I think the best bet is to wait for a live opportunity early in the game; perhaps it'll dip below 240. The line opened at 241, but it's already moved up to 243.5 behind 70% of the money on the over. That's a tough sell, but if it gets below 240 live, that's a value.

The reason the over is intriguing: Houston is averaging 12.48 seconds per possession, fastest in the league; Brooklyn is averaging 13.39 per, fifth-fastest.

Off made field goals, Houston is the second-fast team and Brooklyn is the third-fastest. These teams will certainly run and gun.

Further, the Rockets obviously bomb away from 3, ranking first in 3-point rate for the 400th straight season. So far this year, the Nets have allowed the second-highest 3-point percentage. Doesn't seem great.

On the Rockets side of things, they're allowing the third-highest rate of 3-pointers in the league. They're second-to-last in rim defense and 24th in opponent 3-point accuracy. The Nets have attacked the rim at the second-highest frequency this year.

This line might be a tad inflated by the Rockets-Wizards historic game the other night — 317 combined points! — but I still think this game projects to have iffy defense and a lightning-fast paced with a ton of 3-pointers and shots at the rim — you know, the most efficient shots. I'm going to pass on the current number but will be eyeing the live market in the first quarter.

Spurs -7 at Warriors: The hot topic in the NBA world is Stephen Curry, but let's talk about Steve Kerr for a moment.

In Kerr's system, the Warriors don't run a lot of pick-and-rolls. Even last season with potentially the deadliest pick-and-roll combination of all time in Curry and Kevin Durant, Curry ran a PnR just 21.6% of the time.

For reference, Kemba Walker was at 46.8%. Trae Young was at 45.6%. Damian Lillard, 44.7%. Donovan Mitchell, 44.5%. Curry's new teammate, D'Angelo Russell, was at 49.9% last season with the Nets.

As a whole, the Warriors were dead last in PnR rate, running them just 10.8% of the time. Kerr prefers to play a quick, read-and-react system with a lot of cuts; the Dubs ranked first in the league in cutting possessions and were obviously very good on those possessions (they were good at pretty much every possession, to be fair).

This roster, however, is not a read-and-react-quickly roster. Unscripted offensive sets are good for superstars, and the Warriors had like five of them last season and in the recent past. Now, with Curry out, it's just Russell, Draymond Green and overwhelmed young players. They need a more structured system, but I'm skeptical Kerr will give it to them.

This season, Russell is running a pick-and-roll on just 33.8% of his plays — an obviously huge drop from his time with the Nets. And the Warriors have been utterly inefficient with them: They're averaging 0.62 points per possession and a 30% effective field goal mark. That's in the 17th percentile.

So maybe it's tough to make an argument for Russell and the Warriors running more pick-and-roll sets. They don't really have the roster for any offense, but at least Russell has some upside within PnRs, and he's familiar with them.

Again, I'm skeptical the offensive philosophy will change overnight, and it just doesn't fit Russell, Draymond or anyone on that team. Seven points is a lot on the road on a back-to-back, but I have little faith this Golden State team will be any good anytime soon.

Also, remember that back-to-backs are overrated early in the season:

I really wish Dejounte Murray, one of the best guard defenders in the league, was playing. But the Spurs are still much, much better than this team on a normal night.

I'll likely add some things throughout the day, so check out the live chat at the bottom of this post for updates.

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 2 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Boston Celtics: Kemba Walker – Marcus Smart – Jayson Tatum – Gordon Hayward – Daniel Theis
• Brooklyn Nets: Kyrie Irving – Caris LeVert – Joe Harris – Taurean Prince – DeAndre Jordan
• Chicago Bulls: Tomas Satoransky – Zach LaVine – Otto Porter – Lauri Markkanen – Wendell Carter Jr.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland – Collin Sexton – Cedi Osman – Kevin Love – Tristan Thompson
• Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic – Seth Curry – Dorian Finney-Smith – Kristaps Porzingis – Dwight Powell
• Detroit Pistons: Tim Frazier – Luke Kennard – Tony Snell – Markieff Morris – Andre Drummond
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Jordan Poole – Glenn Robinson III – Draymond Green – Willie Cauley-Stein
• Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
• Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Jeremy Lamb – TJ Warren – TJ Leaf – Domantas Sabonis
• Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James – Avery Bradley – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe – Wesley Matthews – Khris Middleton – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brook Lopez
• New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina – RJ Barrett – Marcus Morris – Julius Randle – Mitchell Robinson
• Orlando Magic: DJ Augustin – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Nikola Vucevic
• Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
• San Antonio Spurs: Derrick White – Bryn Forbes – DeMar DeRozan – Trey Lyles – LaMarcus Aldridge
• Utah Jazz: Mike Conley – Donovan Mitchell – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert

Injury News

• Boston Celtics: Enes Kanter (knee) is out. Jaylen Brown (illness) and Robert Williams (hip) are doubtful. Daniel Theis (ankle) is available to play.
• Brooklyn Nets: Nothing new.
• Chicago Bulls: Nothing new.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Matthew Dellavedova (personal) is out.
• Dallas Mavericks: Nothing new.
• Detroit Pistons: Reggie Jackson (back) is out. Markieff Morris (ankle) is questionable. Derrick Rose (hamstring) is probable.
• Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry (hand), Kevon Looney (hamstring) and Jacob Evans (adductor) are out. Draymond Green (back) is not listed on the injury report.
• Houston Rockets: Nothing new.
• Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner (ankle) and Edmond Sumner (hand) are out.
• Los Angeles Lakers: Rajon Rondo (calf) is out. Anthony Davis (shoulder) is expected to play. Kyle Kuzma (foot) will make his season debut.
• Milwaukee Bucks: Kyle Korver (rest) is out.
• New York Knicks: Elfrid Payton (hamstring) and Dennis Smith Jr. (personal) are out. Frank Ntilikina (neck) will start.
• Orlando Magic: Mo Bamba (rest) and Michael Carter-Williams (hip) are out.
• Sacramento Kings: Harry Giles (knee) is questionable.
• San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray (rest) is out.
• Utah Jazz: Nothing new.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders. Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I wrote about yesterday, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Otto Porter's rebound prop. His minutes have been all over the place this year, as the Bulls have played a deep rotation and seemingly wanted to limit him with a nagging hip injury. He's exceeded 30 minutes just once, and he's been at 21 in two of his last four games.

His prop is set at 5.5, but he hasn't hit the over in any game this year, and today he'll face a Pistons team that has Andre Drummond and is eighth in overall rebound rate. The Bulls, meanwhile, are dead last in the NBA in rebound rate. I'll take the under on this one.

DFS Values and Strategy

It's a massive slate, and there's a ton of value with so much injury news. Let's start with talking about the studs for tonight.

There are quite a few to choose from, including Drummond, Harden, Luka Doncic, Westbrook and LaMarcus Aldridge, among others for tournaments.

Drummond has been dominant this season without Blake Griffin, and he's coming off a 20-20 game against a tough Raptors defense. Tonight he'll face a much easier test against a Bulls team that ranks 23rd on defense and is dead last in rebound rate. They've allowed the second-highest frequency of shots at the rim. This is definitely setting up to be a Drummond night, and he's projecting to be a value at $9,500 on DraftKings.

The Rockets are taking on the Nets, who are 22nd in defensive efficiency so far this season. And, as mentioned above, these are two of the fastest teams in the league, including off made shots (of which there will be plenty).

The Nets are also terrible in transition defense, which means there's going to be plenty of high-value looks for Harden and Westbrook. This game has a 243.5 over/under and should be massively popular in all formats.

And what to say about Luka anymore? As a sophomore, he's leading a Mavs team that currently ranks No. 1 in the NBA in half-court offensive efficiency. That is absolutely incredible. He's a walking triple-double threat and is underpriced at $9,800 on FanDuel, even against a tough L.A. defense. He'll look to rebound tonight after struggling against the Nuggets last game.

Value-wise, it's going to be important to monitor injury news and take advantage of increased roles and opportunities. A guy standing out right now on FanDuel is Boston center Daniel Theis, who is projected for more than 25 minutes against a bad Knicks team with Enes Kanter out tonight. Marcus Smart is also projected as a value with Jaylen Brown out.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Under 215 in Bucks-Magic (I wouldn't bet past the number)
• Spurs -7 at Warriors (I wouldn't bet past the number)
• Looking for Rockets-Nets live over of less than 240 in first quarter

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Follow me in our free app if you want an alert on other bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.