Friday NBA Odds & Picks (Nov. 8): Betting Analysis, DFS Strategies, Injury News, More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 0-3 for -1.65 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Suns -1 and it closed at Suns -1.5
• I bet Blazers +5.5 and it closed at Blazers +5.5
• I bet Thunder +5 and it closed at Thunder +5

As I wrote yesterday, I didn't think there was a huge edge on the games, and in hindsight I should've trusted that analysis instead of pressing. Still, process is important, and I don't want to get too up or down after a losing or winning day.

I ended up betting the Suns after it was announced that Justise Winslow would sit out. I thought that would provide a point or so of value, and the line did move a half-point in my favor. Unfortunately, the Suns got blown out. It was never really close with the Heat shooting 54% from the field and 53% from beyond the arc. Make or miss league!

I still think the Thunder were undervalued yesterday despite not covering. They had the league's best defense after scrubbing out garbage time, and they lost by nine mostly thanks to LaMarcus Aldridge having one of the best games of his career, going 19-of-23 from the field for 39 points.

The most tilting loss was the Blazers, who were down just one point to the Clippers with 30 seconds left. Lou Williams hit a 3 at that time to put the Clips up by four, and then the Blazers couldn't hit much after. Rodney Hood with 17 seconds left did hit a jumper to pull it to two, but then Kawhi Leonard drained four free throws to seal the game, including a pair with three seconds left to cover the 5.5-point spread at the last second. That game was closer than the final score indicated. It happens.

Anyway, let's get to today's massive 11-game slate. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic (-7), 208
• 7 p.m. ET: Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards (-4.5), 232
• 7 p.m. ET: Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers (-7.5), 210.5
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Sacramento Kings (-2.5) at Atlanta Hawks, 224
• 8 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves (-11), 232.5
• 8 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors (-2.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 234
• 8:30 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks (-11), 215.5
• 9 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) at Utah Jazz, 217.5
• 9 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets (-5), 212
• 10 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3), 237
• 10:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at LA Lakers (-8), 217

(Odds via PointsBet — claim your 200% deposit match, an exclusive promotion for Action Network users)

Let's run through a couple edges I'm seeing today.

Over 209 in Grizzlies-Magic: I've been buying the Magic offense improving lately, and they did a bit the other night, shooting 48% from the field against the Magic. There's a bit more room, too, as they shot just 6-of-24 from beyond the arc in that one. They're definitely primed for 3-point shooting regression, as I've detailed a lot lately.

They'll have open looks tonight against the Grizzlies, who have allowed wide-open 3-pointers at a top-10 rate this season. Opponents haven't hit them, however, shooting 30.4% on those attempts — the third-lowest mark in the league. If there was a time to get right shooting for the Magic, it's tonight.

But perhaps more importantly, the Grizzlies are just playing at a super-fast pace. They're currently fifth with 109.2 possessions per game, and they're the second-fastest team pushing off missed shots. That latter point is important, as I think they can speed up the slow-moving Magic.

Neither of these teams are good in halfcourt offensive sets, both ranking in the bottom-five in efficiency. The Grizzlies have allowed transition opportunities at the sixth-highest rate, and the Magic have the personnel to run in theory. They haven't done that yet, and maybe that's just how Steve Clifford wants them to operate, but they definitely should push with Markelle Fultz starting alongside athletic, fast wings in Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.

I could be wrong on that, but I just think this total is a bit low. The Magic had a 207.5 total against the Mavs and a 201 mark against the Thunder, both of whom are incredibly slow and like to operate in the halfcourt. Against one of the fastest teams in the league, this is still under 210? I'll take a chance again on the Magic finding more success on offense, especially against this Grizz team.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Over 216.5 in Heat-Lakers: First, as I've written before, there's data that shows that road back-to-backs have been overrated by the market early in the season…

So far this season, teams matching this trend have gone 8-0-1 against the spread. It's easy to think the Heat are at a disadvantage after playing last night, but that may not be the case still early in November.

It's scary to bet an over for two teams that rank in the top-three in Defensive Rating to start the year. I'm not sure that's actually what we should expect from the Heat moving forward, however. On the year, they've allowed the most wide-open 3-pointers in the league, but opponents have been hitting them at a 28.9% rate — second-lowest behind the Hawks. Overall, the Heat are allowing the most 3s in the league.

Now, sure, the Lakers aren't exactly taking a ton this season, but I think most of that is they're not taking bad 3-pointers. They're taking open 3-pointers at a league-average rate; they're taking contested ones at the sixth-lowest rate. That's a positive sign, not a negative one — and the data suggests Danny Green and Co. should have some open looks tonight.

Looking more broadly than just 3s, the Heat defense has just been very lucky to start the season. Per pbpstats.com, they have an expected eFG% allowed of 54% — one of the highest marks in the league — but opponents have posted a mark below 50%. This defense is definitely due for regression.

Justise Winslow is out, and he's a good perimeter defender. The data is limited, but the Heat offense has actually been a bit better without him on the floor this year. So far, the Heat's offense has increased by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with him off, while the defense has dropped by 11.4/100. The Heat have taken more shots at the rim and way more 3-pointers; spacing is likely a little better without Point Winslow, who is taking just 2.4 threes per game and has hit them at a 25.0% rate.

Finally, the Heat have allowed transition opportunities at the highest rate this season. The Lakers are also in the bottom-10 in that category. The Heat also really struggling turning the ball over, and the Lakers have forced turnovers at the second-highest rate this year. At a low mark of 216.5, I think this could be a faster-paced affair than expected.

There's sharp money on the over, which has historically been a good sign:

There's some potential live betting value on this game as well. The Lakers have started super slow this year, ranking 29th in Offensive Rating in the first quarter. The Heat, meanwhile, are first in the league in that time. If the spread and total go down, there could be a nice opportunity to buy the Lakers and over at a discount early.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Nets-Blazers: This total opened at 233 and is now up to 237 at the time of writing. I can't grab the line after moving four whole points, but I do think this game should feature some crooked numbers.

Both of these teams are bottom-10 in transition defense, and the Blazers, usually a disciplined team, have allowed those opportunities at the second-highest rate this year. The Nets have gotten out in transition at the second-highest rate as well, so they'll likely push the pace against a Blazers squad that just played last night against the Clippers.

The Nets are terrible at protecting the ball, ranking second-worst in turnover rate on offense. They like to push, they allow teams to push and they let defenses get great looks after steals. Not a bad combination for an over.

Both teams have good offenses, and the defenses aren't exactly stout. The Nets are bottom-six in 3-point accuracy allowed, which is tough news against Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both teams are in the top-10 in 3-point shooting to start the year, and that should continue against these defenses.

But with the total already seeing so much movement, I think I'll look to live bet this game instead. The Nets have started slow this year, ranking 21st in Offensive Rating in the first quarter but top-10 in the next two. If this dips back close to the opening number of 233, there will be value to grab that in the first quarter.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 1:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Cam Reddish – De’Andre Hunter – Jabari Parker – Alex Len
• Brooklyn Nets: Kyrie Irving – Caris LeVert – Joe Harris – Taurean Prince – DeAndre Jordan
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland – Collin Sexton – Cedi Osman – Kevin Love – Tristan Thompson
• Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic – Seth Curry – Dorian Finney-Smith – Kristaps Porzingis – Dwight Powell
• Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray – Gary Harris – Will Barton – Paul Millsap – Nikola Jokic
• Detroit Pistons: Bruce Brown – Luke Kennard – Tony Snell – Markieff Morris – Andre Drummond
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Jordan Poole – Glenn Robinson III – Eric Paschall – Willie Cauley-Stein
• Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Aaron Holiday – TJ Warren – Domantas Sabonis – Myles Turner
• LA Lakers: LeBron James – Avery Bradley – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
• Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
• Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler – Kendrick Nunn – Duncan Robinson – Meyers Leonard – Bam Adebayo
• Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe – Wesley Matthews – Khris Middleton – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brook Lopez
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Jeff Teague – Andrew Wiggins – Treveon Graham – Robert Covington – Karl-Anthony Towns
• New Orleans Pelicans: Lonzo Ball – Jrue Holiday – Josh Hart – Brandon Ingram – Derrick Favors
• New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina – RJ Barrett – Marcus Morris – Julius Randle – Bobby Portis
• Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Nikola Vucevic
• Philadelphia 76ers: Josh Richardson – Furkan Korkmaz – Tobias Harris – Al Horford – Joel Embiid
• Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard – CJ McCollum – Rodney Hood – Anthony Tolliver – Hassan Whiteside
• Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
• Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry – Fred VanVleet – OG Anunoby – Pascal Siakam – Marc Gasol
• Utah Jazz: Mike Conley – Donovan Mitchell – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert
• Washington Wizards: Isaiah Thomas – Bradley Beal – Troy Brown – Rui Hachimura – Thomas Bryant

Injury News

• Atlanta Hawks: Evan Turner (Achilles) is out. Cam Reddish (shoulder) is probable.
• Brooklyn Nets: DeAndre Jordan (ankle) is questionable.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Nothing new.
• Dallas Mavericks: Nothing new.
• Denver Nuggets: Gary Harris (ankle) is probable.
• Detroit Pistons: Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Blake Griffin (hamstring) are out. Tim Frazier (shoulder) is doubtful.
• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell (ankle) is probable. Kevon Looney (hamstring) and Draymond Green (finger) remain out.
• Indiana Pacers: Jeremy Lamb (ankle) and Goga Bitadze (concussion) are out. Myles Turner (ankle) is a game-time decision.
• LA Lakers: Rajon Rondo (calf) is doubtful. Avery Bradley (leg) is questionable. Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is probable.
• Memphis Grizzlies: Grayson Allen (ankle) is out. Tyus Jones (ankle) is probable.
• Miami Heat: Justise Winslow (concussion) is in the protocol, TBD.
• Milwaukee Bucks: Nothing new.
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Shabazz Napier (hamstring) is a game-time decision. Jeff Teague (illness) is out. Jordan Bell (shoulder) is questionable.
• New Orleans Pelicans: JJ Redick (knee) is questionable. Lonzo Ball (adductor) says he'll play. Derrick Favors (knee) is not on the injury report.
• New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson (concussion) is out. Dennis Smith Jr. (personal) and Elfrid Payton (hamstring) are TBD.
• Orlando Magic: Terrence Ross (knee) is out.
• Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons (shoulder) is out.
• Portland Trail Blazers: Nothing new.
• Sacramento Kings: Harry Giles (knee) and Dewayne Dedmon (knee) are questionable.
• Toronto Raptors: Nothing new.
• Utah Jazz: Emmanuel Mudiay (hamstring) is out.
• Washington Wizards: Nothing new.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders. Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Jamal Murray's 20.5-point total.

I'm still high on Murray long-term and he's gone over this total in each of the past two games, but he'll have a tough matchup tonight against the Sixers, who obviously have a very good defense.

The Sixers defense has been interesting this year. They're eighth overall, and their four factors are all excellent outside of eFG% allowed — they're 20th. I think that will come down: The Sixers have limited 3-pointers at the second-best rate this year, but opponents are hitting them at the fourth-highest rate.

Digging deeper, opponents are hitting open 3s against the Sixers at a 43.2% clip — the second-highest mark in the league. Guards have done well against them this year, mostly for that reason. But I still believe in Josh Richardson's on-ball defense, and those numbers should regress.

Against a Denver team that ranks dead last in the league in pace, averaging 15.55 seconds per possessions, Murray's chances will be slightly more limited than usual. He could be efficient and blow past this number, but I think the smart side is to fade his play recently and take the under.

DFS Values and Strategy

MASSIVE SLATE.

And yet, we're still going back to old faithful: Karl-Anthony Towns. DraftKings has been so slow to boost his price; he's still just $10,300. He'll have a beautiful matchup tonight against the Warriors, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. They're also last in eFG% allowed, 28th in forcing turnovers and 29th in defensive rebound rate.

The Warriors are last in halfcourt defensive efficiency and opponent shooting at the rim. This is an absolute smash spot for KAT, and this game has a high total of 230. Minny has played at a fast pace this year, ranking seventh in pace overall and specifically fourth in pace off made field goals.

There are plenty of studs to buy other than Towns, of course. Damian Lillard is going up against the fast-paced Nets (more on that game above) and is somehow just $9,000. Joel Embiid is without Ben Simmons. Bradley Beal gets the Cavs defense. Anthony Davis and LeBron James get a Heat defense I think should regress (more on that above, too).

Overall, KAT is my favorite stud for the price, but there are obviously plenty of opportunities to pivot in tournaments.

Value-wise, there's no shortage of options on this big slate, especially ones with a bunch of injuries. Jarrett Culver is still way mispriced at $3,800 on FanDuel; he should continue to see a big role with Jeff Teague and guys out for the Wolves. Raul Neto is scary, but he should see more time at point with Simmons out today.

Overall, in these big slates, it's so imperative to follow injury news and make sure you're getting the most up-to-date projections. That's the power of our Labs tools and models; they're constantly updated.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Over 209 in Grizzlies-Magic (I wouldn't bet past 209.5)
• Over 216.5 in Heat-Lakers (I wouldn't bet past 216.5)

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Follow me in our free app if you want an alert on bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.