Pacers vs. Pelicans Odds

After starting 3-0, the Indiana Pacers hit a rough patch, losing two of their last three games. The losses have come thanks to troubles rebounding, as the Pacers averaged 37 to their opponents' 46 over their last three games.

Against the New Orleans Pelicans' 48.7 rebounds per game, getting on the glass will be key to Indiana finding its fifth win.

The Pelicans have done the opposite. They started 2-2 but found a rhythm, winning their last two. The difference has been a hot hand when it comes to shooting from behind the arc. While hitting 36.5% of their 3-point shots in their past two games is only near league average, that rate is much higher than their 29.6% to start the season.

Both teams play similar styles using slower pace and tough defense. Let’s see if we can find which one does it better. 

Indiana Pacers

Ranking sixth in net rating with a mark of +7.4, the Pacers have performed as one of the best teams in the NBA. All-Star guard Victor Oladipo at full strength has been the catalyst to the Pacers’ improvement. 

Last year Oladipo did his best to return from injury during the season. Unfortunately, his play would show he was just not there, as his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) was the lowest of his career. Now, at full strength, his play has bounced back and he currently has the second-highest PER of his career at 20.4. 

Oladipo’s return to full strength also helped the play of starting point guard Malcolm Brogdon. Last season, Brogdon was thrust into the lead guard role. His career-low 43.8% field goal percentage showed his discomfort. With Oladipo back, Brogdon thrives as the compliment guard, averaging 22.2 points on 53.1% shooting. 

The team as a whole benefited from the improved play, as their offensive rating of 113.7 ranks fifth in the NBA — a significant improvement from their 19th-ranked 110.0 last year. The defense picked up where it left off last year, as their 106.3 defensive rating is not far from their 108.0 this year.

Pairing an improved offense with their already impressive defense makes Indiana a team no one wants to play. If they can maintain this level all year long, the Pacers might be competing for a top seed in the East.

New Orleans Pelicans

A coaching change from Alvin Gentry to Stan Van Gundy completely flipped the Pelicans’ style of play.

Last season, pace and space was the philosophy as New Orleans’ Pace of 103.7 ranked second-fastest and their 36.9 3-point attempts per game ranked seventh-most, per Basketball Reference. This year these numbers fell to 26th with a 98.5 Pace and 20th with 33.2 3-point attempts per game.

Transitioning to a slower style, the Pelicans focused on rebounding and defense to guide them to victory. While only six games have been played, this change seems to be working. New Orleans has shot up in defensive efficiency, currently ranking fourth with a mark of 103.5. Preventing second-chance points is one reason for the defensive improvement, as they allow the fewest offensive rebounds in the league.

Offensively, New Orleans has a long way to go. Their 106.2 offensive rating ranks 20th. Ranking sixth-worst in turnovers per 100 possessions and assists per 100 possessions show the Pelicans’ inability to move the ball.

Ball movement is not the only area they struggle with. They rank 25th in 3-point percentage at 32.2%. Part of the reason for the inefficiency comes from the players taking the shots, as Lonzo Ball leads the team in 3-point attempts despite shooting 30.2%.

Pacers-Pelicans Pick

Behind an improved offensive attack the Pacers might be making their way into the Eastern Conference elite. This comes behind the lead of Oladipo, who looks to have finally made a full recovery from his ruptured quadriceps.

His return helped Brogdon transition to a role more suited for his skill set. The benefit has been clear, as Brogdon’s PER shot up this year to 23.2. 

The Pelicans have made their way to a 4-2 record through elite defense and rebounding. While this gameplan has been effective, it crumbled against Phoenix, the only above-.500 team New Orleans played.

Against Indiana, they will be tested. The Pacers will match their defensive intensity but have a more polished offense. 

While the Pelicans will have an advantage on the boards, the Pacers have shown an ability to play at a high level on both sides of the court, unlike New Orleans. Back the Pacers to win and redeem themselves for the ugly loss to the Knicks.

Pick:Pacers +1 down to -1.5. (If the moneyline ever moves to plus money, take the extra reward there.)