Tuesday NBA Odds & Picks (Nov. 19): Damian Lillard’s Injury Creates Betting, DFS Value

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 6-2 for +2.43 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Pacers-Nets under 218.5/218 and it closed at 214 (won)
• I bet Pacers +3 and it closed at Pacers +2.5 (won)
• I bet Hornets +8.5 and it closed at Hornets +8.5 (lost)
• I bet Spurs-Mavs under 224 and it closed at 224 (lost)
• I bet Celtics +3 and it closed at Celtics +2.5 (won)
• I bet Wolves +9.5 and it closed at Wolves +9.5 (won)
• I bet Thunder +9 and it closed at Thunder +7.5 (won)

It was a great evening, and most importantly I had no lines move against me by closing. I gained quite a bit of value in the Pacers-Nets game, especially with the over/under once Kyrie Irving was ruled out, and gained a bit with the Thunder once Kawhi Leonard was ruled out.

Anyway, let's get to today's four-game slate and find some angles. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

• Overall: 81-61-1
• Spreads: 27-25-1
• Totals: 19-14
• Moneylines: 5-2
• Props: 28-20

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 8 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies (-6), 221
• 8 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers (-1) at New Orleans Pelicans, 230
• 10 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings (-2.5), 217
• 10:30 p.m. ET: OKC Thunder at LA Lakers (-11), 210.5

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.

Let's run through a couple situations for today.

Blazers at Pelicans

Well, I wrote up how I liked the over in this game and right after I finished, Damian Lillard was ruled out. I immediately grabbed Pelicans +4 and the under 233.5 as a result.

The Blazers have been incredibly bad lately, losing seven of their last nine games. During that span, they've ranked 23rd in the league with a -4.9 point differential, sitting 11th on offense and a disappointing 26th on defense.

It's hard to blame Lillard (or CJ McCollum) for the troubles, however. Take a look at the on/off differentials for the Blazers guys who have played at least 100 minutes this season:

• CJ McCollum: +18.5
• Damian Lillard: +13.7
• Skal Labissiere: +7.0
• Mario Hezonja: +3.5
• Hassan Whiteside: +1.7
• Nassir Little: -0.5
• Rodney Hood: -1.7
• Kent Bazemore: -8.2
• Anfernee Simons: -10.1
• Anthony Tolliver: -17.1

Man is that bench bad. The Blazers have tried to stagger McCollum and Lillard, playing McCollum at the beginning of the second and fourth quarters when Dame takes his breaks, but it hasn't really mattered. Even with McCollum as the playmaker in those units, they've been awful.

And now it's just McCollum tonight. The most-used lineup without him this season, which includes CJ, has posted a -15.8 Net Rating. That unit has scored just 100.0 points/100 possessions. It's been incredibly mid-range heavy, as it's relied on McCollum to manufacture shots for himself out of thin air. It's not going to be pretty for the Blazers offense tonight, even against a subpar New Orleans defense.

We will get the debut of Carmelo Anthony, but he's been in the top 50 percentile of on/off defense metrics just twice in his 17-year career. If he's going to operate the offense for the bench unit in Night 1 of his Blazers career, first of all that could be ugly, and second it's likely to slow down the pace, which leads value to the under yet again.

I think there's value down to Pels +1, and I'd bet the under down to 230.

Suns at Kings

I am fascinated by this game for a couple reasons. Let's start with the Kings side of things.

Sacramento has been without De'Aaron Fox for three games now. During that time, the Kings have gone 2-1, including wins over the Blazers and Celtics and a narrow loss to the Lakers in L.A. They have a +2.1 point differential, and their defense has allowed a stingy 104.2 points per 100 possessions.

They've limited wide-open shots during that time, but they have allowed a ton of "open" shots — classified by NBA.com as a defender 4-6 feet away. On those attempts, opponents have shot 34.8%, which is below-average. While those jumpers may go in more frequently, the rim protection has been legitimately impressive.

• vs. Blazers: 57.9% opponent shooting at the rim (34th percentile)
• at Lakers: 53.3% opponent shooting at the rim (22nd percentile)
• vs. Celtics: 53.3% opponent shooting at the rim (22nd percentile)

Richaun Holmes has been a revelation this season: He not only leads the Kings with a +22.9 on/off differential, but it ranks in the 99th percentile of all players. The Kings have been 15.5 points/100 better with him on offense and 7.4 points/100 worse without him on defense. With him out there, opponents have shot 5.9% worse at the rim.

The Suns do get a bunch of shots at the rim, but where they've gotten their bread and butter (and fourth-ranked eFG% mark) has been outside shooting. They're fifth in 3-point percentage and third specifically on non-corner-3s.

This is a weird line: It opened as a pick'em, but the Kings are now favored by -2.5. We don't yet have word on Ricky Rubio, who missed last night's loss, and it's important to note that the Suns are on a road back-to-back.

Still, the Kings were three-point dogs to the Celtics at home just two days ago, and last night the Suns were 2.5-point favorites. If we put home-court advantage as 2.5 points, that would put the Kings as 5.5-point dogs to Boston on a neutral court, and last night the teams were even on a neutral court. Rubio is important, but have things changed so much over two days (plus the back-to-back) factor to warrant a five-plus point shift?

Maybe so, and the public certainly thinks so: As of writing, the Kings are getting 53% of the spread bets and 68% of the spread dollars. Our Sports Insights tools have tracked three different steam moves on the Kings at -1.5, -2.5 and then again at -2 after it moved back down:

I wouldn't have this at Kings -2.5 if Rubio is playing (or even if not), but it definitely makes me uncomfortable to go against so many sharp signals. As a result, I'll pass tonight, but this is a fascinating one to watch given the very weird performance of the Kings minus Fox.

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[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 1 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Golden State Warriors: Alec Burks – Glenn Robinson III – Eric Paschall – Draymond Green – Willie Cauley-Stein
• LA Lakers: LeBron James – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
• Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
• New Orleans Pelicans: Lonzo Ball – Jrue Holiday – Brandon Ingram – Kenrich Williams – Jaxson Hayes
• OKC Thunder: Chris Paul – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Terrance Ferguson – Danilo Gallinari – Steven Adams
• Phoenix Suns: Ricky Rubio – Devin Booker – Kelly Oubre – Dario Saric – Aron Baynes
• Portland Trail Blazers: Anfernee Simons – CJ McCollum – Rodney Hood – Nassir Little – Hassan Whiteside
• Sacramento Kings: Cory Joseph – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes

Injury News

• Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell (thumb) is out at least 2 weeks.
• LA Lakers: Anthony Davis (shoulder) is probable.
• Memphis Grizzlies: Grayson Allen (ankle) is out.
• New Orleans Pelicans: Derrick Favors (back) and Josh Hart (ankle) are out. Jahlil Okafor (ankle) is doubtful. Frank Jackson (neck), Lonzo Ball (adductor) and Brandon Ingram (knee) are questionable.
• OKC Thunder: Hamidou Diallo (knee) is out.
• Phoenix Suns: Ricky Rubio (back) is TBD.
• Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard (back) is out.
• Sacramento Kings: Trevor Ariza (groin) is probable.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders.

Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Nassir Little's 10.5-point total.

It may be tempting to bet the overs on all of the Blazers' props with Lillard out, but 1) not everyone gets the same bump and 2) remember that Carmelo Anthony, who plays Little's position, is supposed to make his debut tonight. As a result, we have Little playing just around 24-25 minutes with a low usage rate.

Even getting around 30 minutes with a higher usage rate lately, Little has struggled to approach today's number. He's an intriguing, athletic talent, but he was very raw coming out of UNC, and the shooting still has a ways to go. With this line inflated a bit, I still like the under.

DFS Values and Strategy

Well, with Damian Lillard surprisingly out for the Blazers, it's easy to figure which team to target in today's smaller slate. The two players with the highest Projected Plus/Minus values on DraftKings are Hassan Whiteside and Anfernee Simons, who should see a big boost today.

Not to mention CJ McCollum, who should have to operate most of the offense tonight, even with Carmelo Anthony making his debut. The Blazers have been very top-heavy with their offense this year (more on that above); when Lillard or McCollum haven't had the ball in their hands, they've been largely unsuccessful. He'll need to have a big game tonight for the Blazers to be competitive, which is good news for his fantasy outlook.

Outside of the Blazers, it's a small slate and studs are limited. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the only two guys listed above $8,800 on DraftKings, and their projected ceilings are way higher than the marks of any other guys. The Blazers guys are must-plays, but AD especially is cheap enough to be able to fit in with those values. Expect a lot of overlap tonight.

Cash games will be easy to build for, but tournaments should be fun. The players with the highest Leverage Plus/Minus marks currently are Devin Booker, Dario Saric and Chris Paul on DraftKings, and Danilo Gallinari, Kyle Anderson and Ja Morant on FanDuel. Those guys have largely high ceilings but should be underowned given the Blazers situation.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Pelicans +4 (I wouldn't bet past +1)
• Blazers-Pelicans under 233.5 (I wouldn't bet past 230)

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Follow me in our free app if you want an alert on bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.