Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 8 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More

Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 8 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More article feature image
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Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: D’Angelo Russell

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

  • Nuggets at 76ers (-4), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Cavaliers at Wizards (-9.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Knicks at Pistons (-8.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Bulls at Nets (-8.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Bucks (-7.5) at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Warriors (-15) at Suns, 9 p.m. ET
  • Timberwolves at Pelicans (-6), 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Heat at Kings (-3), 10 p.m. ET

All data as of 3 p.m. ET on Friday

Jump to:Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props | Staff Favorite BetsPro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends




Friday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Warriors -15 at Suns: 88% of bets
  • Kings -3 vs. Heat: 76% of bets
  • Over 229.5 in Nuggets-76ers: 73% of bets
  • Bucks -7.5 at Mavericks: 73% of bets
  • Pistons -8.5 vs. Knicks: 71% of bets


Friday NBA: Injuries to Know

In today's NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the three most important injuries:

  • Joel Embiid (illness) is questionable.
  • Devin Booker (hamstring) is questionable.
  • Khris Middleton (rest) is out.

Here's a snippet from that piece on Middleton:

With Middleton out of the lineup, Tony Snell is the likely option to enter the starting lineup. The increase in playing time bodes well for his value, but he’s averaged just 9.8 points and 4.2 rebounds in 27.0 minutes per game as a starter this season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe are the primary beneficiaries of Middleton’s absence.

Antetokounmpo has averaged a team-high 1.72 DK points per minute with Middleton off the court, while Bledsoe has led the team with a +5.2% usage rate increase, per our NBA On/Off tool.

Both players will be cash game building blocks on Friday, but Malcolm Brogdon also enters the mix at just $5,600 on DK. He has averaged 1.07 DK points per minute and has benefitted from a +4.4% assist rate increase with Middleton off the court this season.

For all injury news, plus information on traded/waived players and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.




Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to trades yesterday, value is immense on today's NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 on DraftKings due to their teams having shortened rotations because of trades or injuries:

  • Hassan Whiteside at Kings: +8.95 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Collin Sexton at Wizards: +8.53 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Dwight Powell vs. Bucks: +8.37 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Dennis Smith Jr. at Pistons: +8.07 Projected Plus/Minus

We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Pistons center Andre Drummond, who has an excellent matchup for the Knicks but isn't expected to be highly owned.

Drummond just put up 50.0 DraftKings points against the Knicks on Tuesday. New York ranks 26th in rebound rate and just waived its best rebounder in center Enes Kanter.




Friday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently 11 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 58% rate.

One is Harrison Barnes to go under his 17.5-point prop. He was just traded to the Sacramento Kings and will play for the first time with his new team tonight against the Miami Heat. He's averaging 17.7 points per game this year, but 1) he may have lower usage with Sacramento and 2) may have an adjustment period.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.


Friday NBA: Our Experts' Favorite Bets

Ken Barkley: Under 217.5 in Heat-Kings

This is a weird game for a variety of reasons. First, there's been roster turnover on both sides, most notably Tyler Johnson leaving Miami and Harrison Barnes and Alec Burks arriving in Sacramento.

Burks and Barnes are both probable. That type of uncertainty in rotations and how players fit together can have a variety of effects, but I would expect a sloppier game than if these teams played, say, last week.

The other theme here that’s pretty incredible is just how much better Miami is on the road than at home.

The Heat's defensive efficiency actually improves on the road by a couple points per 100 possessions, something you almost never see from any NBA team.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

This week is a perfect example of the strange year Miami is having — it lost to the Bulls, Thunder and Pacers in a row all at home, then went on the road and upset the Blazers in Portland. Who knows.

With a couple days of rest and the fact that the Heat are still without Goran Dragic (one of their more potent offensive weapons), I think Miami’s defense travels again, against a team whose locker room and rotation is in the midst of drastic changes.

John Ewing: Suns +15.5 vs. Warriors

There is no way the Suns can beat the Warriors. Phoenix has lost 13 of its past 14 games while Golden State has won 13 of its past 14 games. Oddsmakers opened Steve Kerr's team as 14.5-point favorites, and it has been bet up to -15.5 with more than 80% of spread tickets on the chalk.

This is a great spot to go contrarian. Since 2005, teams that have won 20% or less of their games (like the Suns) and are double-digit underdogs have gone 277-232-6 (54.4%) against the spread, per our Bet Labs data.

Against Kerr's Warriors, bad teams in this situation are 12-7 ATS.

I don’t expect Phoenix to win, but 15.5 points (shop around for the best number) is a lot, even for the two-time defending champion Warriors. Fade the public and take the Suns.

Matt Moore: 76ers -4.5 vs. Nuggets

The Nuggets SUUUUUUUUUUCK on the road (10-17 ATS), and they don’t match up with this team in the slightest.

Joel Embiid is a beast for Jokic to handle, Torrey Craig will likely do work on Jimmy Butler (although Butler will score regardless) and the defense for the Sixers will create mayhem for the Nuggets.

Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid

Additionally, while John Ewing’s note above about teams on these road trips over time is significant, this season teams are 113-89-5 (55%) ATS when facing a squad on their third-straight or more road game.

Bad road team, surging Sixers, laying less than two possessions … I’m in on it.

Bryan Mears: Under 224.5 in Bulls-Nets

One trend I made and have saved in Bet Labs is what I'm calling "Unders After a High-Scoring Game."

It's a super simple trend: Home teams after scoring 130 points in their previous game have hit the under at a high rate. It seems the public or bookmakers are overreacting that those prior performances.

This system has a 9.4% ROI historically, including a 11.1% ROI just this season.

There's a match on Nets-Bulls after Brooklyn put up 135 in a win Wednesday over the Nuggets, and I'll keep riding the system.


Friday NBA: Pro System of the Day

Over at Bet Labs, we have an NBA Pro System called "Road Dogs Off ATS Loss." It's fairly self-explanatory — road dogs tend to be undervalued after failing to cover in the previous game — but quite profitable:

This system has a Return on Investment (ROI) of 6.3% since the 2004-05 season. It has been profitable in 13 of the 15 seasons, including this one.

There are three matches tonight on this system:

  • Knicks +8.5 at Pistons
  • Bulls +8.5 at Nets
  • Timberwolves +6.5 at Pelicans


Friday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

  • Nuggets at 76ers: The Nuggets are 29-25 ATS but just 10-17 on the road.
  • Cavs at Wizards: The over is 31-22 in Wizards games, including 16-10 in home games.
  • Knicks at Pistons: The under has hit in nine of the Knicks' past 10 games and seven of the Pistons' past 10.
  • Bulls at Nets: The under is 21-11 in Bulls conference games.
  • Bucks at Mavericks: The Bucks are 26-18-2 ATS as favorites.
  • Warriors at Suns: The over is 17-9 in Warriors road games.
  • Wolves at Pelicans: The Wolves' moneyline on the road is -8.88 units.
  • Heat at Kings: The Kings are 12-1 straight-up and 11-2 ATS as favorites.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.

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Mar 28, 2024 UTC