Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 8 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More

Feb 08, 2019 03:42 PM EST

Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: D’Angelo Russell

In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight’s slate:

  • Nuggets at 76ers (-4), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Cavaliers at Wizards (-9.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Knicks at Pistons (-8.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Bulls at Nets (-8.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Bucks (-7.5) at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Warriors (-15) at Suns, 9 p.m. ET
  • Timberwolves at Pelicans (-6), 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Heat at Kings (-3), 10 p.m. ET

All data as of 3 p.m. ET on Friday

Jump to: Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props | Staff Favorite BetsPro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends

Friday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Warriors -15 at Suns: 88% of bets
  • Kings -3 vs. Heat: 76% of bets
  • Over 229.5 in Nuggets-76ers: 73% of bets
  • Bucks -7.5 at Mavericks: 73% of bets
  • Pistons -8.5 vs. Knicks: 71% of bets

Friday NBA: Injuries to Know

In today’s NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the three most important injuries:

  • Joel Embiid (illness) is questionable.
  • Devin Booker (hamstring) is questionable.
  • Khris Middleton (rest) is out.

Here’s a snippet from that piece on Middleton:

With Middleton out of the lineup, Tony Snell is the likely option to enter the starting lineup. The increase in playing time bodes well for his value, but he’s averaged just 9.8 points and 4.2 rebounds in 27.0 minutes per game as a starter this season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe are the primary beneficiaries of Middleton’s absence.

Antetokounmpo has averaged a team-high 1.72 DK points per minute with Middleton off the court, while Bledsoe has led the team with a +5.2% usage rate increase, per our NBA On/Off tool.

Both players will be cash game building blocks on Friday, but Malcolm Brogdon also enters the mix at just $5,600 on DK. He has averaged 1.07 DK points per minute and has benefitted from a +4.4% assist rate increase with Middleton off the court this season.

For all injury news, plus information on traded/waived players and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.

Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to trades yesterday, value is immense on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 on DraftKings due to their teams having shortened rotations because of trades or injuries:

  • Hassan Whiteside at Kings: +8.95 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Collin Sexton at Wizards: +8.53 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Dwight Powell vs. Bucks: +8.37 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Dennis Smith Jr. at Pistons: +8.07 Projected Plus/Minus

We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Pistons center Andre Drummond, who has an excellent matchup for the Knicks but isn’t expected to be highly owned.

Drummond just put up 50.0 DraftKings points against the Knicks on Tuesday. New York ranks 26th in rebound rate and just waived its best rebounder in center Enes Kanter.

Friday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently 11 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 58% rate.

One is Harrison Barnes to go under his 17.5-point prop. He was just traded to the Sacramento Kings and will play for the first time with his new team tonight against the Miami Heat. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game this year, but 1) he may have lower usage with Sacramento and 2) may have an adjustment period.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Friday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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