Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

• Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic (-7), 7 p.m. ET
• Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (-4.5), 7 p.m. ET
• Toronto Raptors (-7.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
• Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat (-8), 8 p.m. ET
• Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets (-8.5), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
• Utah Jazz (-5) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
• Detroit Pistons (-4) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
• Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-6.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5), 10:30 p.m. ET

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Friday NBA: Most Public Bets

• Over 214.5 in Mavericks-Magic: 81% of bets
• Under 237 in Thunder-Clippers: 77% of bets
• Heat -8.5 vs Cavaliers: 73% of bets
• Jazz -5 at Grizzlies: 71% of bets
• Warriors -6.5 vs. Nuggets: 69% of bets

Friday NBA: Injuries to Know

In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of two of tonight's key injury situations

• New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday (abdominal) and E’Twaun Moore (quad) are out. Jahlil Okafor (ankle) is questionable.
• Utah Jazz: Ricky Rubio (hip) is doubtful. Raul Neto (hamstring) is out.

Here's a snippet from that piece on the Jazz:

With a thin backcourt, Royce O’Neale is the likely option to enter the starting lineup with Donovan Mitchell sliding to point guard. In 10 prior starts this season, O’Neale has averaged 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 31.3 minutes per game.

With all three injured point guards off the court, Mitchell and Joe Ingles have seen the largest increases in assist rate. The duo combined for 15 assists when Rubio was sidelined last week, and both players are on the verge of cash game consideration on Friday.

O’Neale is priced at the minimum on FanDuel at $3,500 and makes sense for a punt option in a format where the lowest score can be dropped. Rudy Gobert carries a 98% Bargain Rating on DK, but Memphis ranks second in Defensive Efficiency against opposing centers this season.

For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.

Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.

Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:

• Elfrid Payton ($5,000) vs. Raptors: +11.91 Projected Plus/Minus
• Royce O'Neale ($3,300) at Grizzlies: +10.24 Projected Plus/Minus
• Andre Drummond ($8,800) at Bulls: +9.00 Projected Plus/Minus
• Kenrich Williams ($4,000) vs. Raptors: +8.84 Projected Plus/Minus
• Kemba Walker ($8,100) vs. Wizards: +8.80 Projected Plus/Minus

You'll notice a couple Pelicans players as the slate's best values, which is because both Jrue Holiday and E'Twaun Moore are out tonight.

With those guys off the floor, Payton has been especially valuable, as he's increased his usage rate by a whopping 6.8% in those situations. At just $5,000, even in a tough matchup against the Raptors, he's the hardest fade of the slate due to that increased role.

We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Orlando center Nikola Vucevic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.

Vuc has been up and down lately, but he's shown a massive ceiling, notably going for over 60 DraftKings points a couple days ago. He's a walking double-double (bonus points on DK), and he has a beautiful matchup against a Dallas team that has ranked 29th in rebound rate over the last month, right around when they traded away several starters.

Friday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently 12 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.

One of those is Nicolas Batumto go over his 10.5-point prop. He's been playing huge minutes lately, averaging nearly 40 per game over his last five as the Hornets make a final playoff push.

As a result, he's averaged 13 points per game over that span, and tonight he'll face a Washington team that ranks 26th defensively overall this season and has been especially atrocious on the road. Given his minutes projection, he's a value for a lot of his overs.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Friday NBA: Our Experts' Favorite Bets

Rob Perez: Warriors -6.5 vs. Nuggets

The Warriors are a Harvey Dent coin flip. It’s either “ugh, this is so boring” or “OK, people are starting to doubt us again so let’s run these fools off Planet Earth and hang a 50 piece on them like a Christmas ornament.”

After getting embarrassed by the Celtics on a national TV stage, the coin is undoubtedly going to land on the burnt dark side. Now sit back and experience the firepower of this ARMED and FULLY OPERATIONAL battle station. Fire when ready, commander.

Matt Moore: Warriors -6.5 vs. Nuggets

Bryan, my response to your Warriors-Nuggets breakdown today…

Here's an interesting stat: Since the Warriors got Kevin Durant, which is basically when the market started going explode-y on their lines (because how do you cap a four-All-Star team that doesn’t have to try?), teams winning 60% of their games or more are 4-10 ATS in Oracle.

Another thing to keep in mind: The Nuggets got the Warriors’ attention, finally, with that win earlier in the year in Denver. That annoyed them, pretty clearly. The Warriors ANNIHILATED Denver on the road back in January.

They aren’t scared of the Nuggets, but they also like to remind teams not to think they are better. The Nuggets are 6-3 vs. the Durant-era Warriors ATS, but I think the Warriors provide a reminder of who they are here.

Matt Moore: Cavaliers +8 at Heat

Miami is 2-7 ATS at home this season when favored by five or more, and this is the exact kind of game the Heat lose. They have just been horrendous at home, and the Cavaliers are playing with a lot of joy right now. Kevin Love is energized. This number, quite frankly, is preposterous given how bad Miami has been at home.

Travis Reed: Pelicans +7.5 vs. Raptors

This isn’t the prettiest play on the board, but often the data points me to some ugly teams with some good value.

The Pelicans are receiving just 24% of bets as home dogs and the line has moved from +4 to +7.5. According to Bet Labs, bad teams receiving 30% of bets or fewer and have seen the line move against them by a point or more have covered the spread at a 56.9% rate since 2005. This season, teams that qualify for this system have gone 33-13 against the closing number.

John Ewing: Thunder +2.5 at Clippers

OKC has lost six of its past nine games and is playing the second game of a back-to-back in the middle of a four-game road trip. Recreational bettors believes this is a trap game for Oklahoma City, as less than 30% of spread tickets and dollars are on the Thunder and the line has moved from Clippers -1 to -2.5.

But historically it has been profitable to fade the public when an NBA team gets little support and the line moves against them.

Friday NBA Pro System of the Day

At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Pro Tickets vs. Money Overs." It identifies totals in which there's sharp money — measured as a higher percentage of over dollars than bets — on the over.

This system has hit at a 55.3% rate historically, good for a 7.6% Return on Investment (ROI). It has been our most profitable system this season, going 62-47-1 for a robust 10.6% ROI.

This system is especially intriguing because it's measured against the closing line. That means sharp money is on the over, it's moving up as a result and it's still hitting for a double-digit ROI. That's pretty darn impressive.

There are two matches tonight:

• Over 235 in Nuggets-Warriors, 10:30 p.m. ET
• Over 237.5 in Thunder-Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET

Friday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

• Mavericks at Magic: The Mavericks are -19.7 moneyline units on the road.
• Wizards at Hornets: The Wizards are 10-23 ATS on the road.
• Raptors at Pelicans: The Raptors are 12-17-2 ATS on the road and 18-32-2 as favorites.
• Cavaliers at Heat: The Heat are 12-19-1 ATS at home and 12-20 as favorites.
• 76ers at Rockets: The over is 19-11 in Rockets home games.
• Jazz at Grizzlies: The under is 29-11 in Grizzlies conference games.
• Pistons at Bulls: The Pistons are 20-5 straight-up and 14-11 ATS as favorites.
• Nuggets at Warriors: The under is 25-16 in Nuggets conference games.
• Thunder at Clippers: The under is 9-3 when the Thunder are underdogs.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.