Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Vucevic
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic (-7), 7 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (-4.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors (-7.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat (-8), 8 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets (-8.5), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Utah Jazz (-5) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons (-4) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-6.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Friday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 214.5 in Mavericks-Magic: 81% of bets
- Under 237 in Thunder-Clippers: 77% of bets
- Heat -8.5 vs Cavaliers: 73% of bets
- Jazz -5 at Grizzlies: 71% of bets
- Warriors -6.5 vs. Nuggets: 69% of bets
Friday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of two of tonight’s key injury situations
- New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday (abdominal) and E’Twaun Moore (quad) are out. Jahlil Okafor (ankle) is questionable.
- Utah Jazz: Ricky Rubio (hip) is doubtful. Raul Neto (hamstring) is out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Jazz:
With a thin backcourt, Royce O’Neale is the likely option to enter the starting lineup with Donovan Mitchell sliding to point guard. In 10 prior starts this season, O’Neale has averaged 8.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 31.3 minutes per game.
With all three injured point guards off the court, Mitchell and Joe Ingles have seen the largest increases in assist rate. The duo combined for 15 assists when Rubio was sidelined last week, and both players are on the verge of cash game consideration on Friday.
O’Neale is priced at the minimum on FanDuel at $3,500 and makes sense for a punt option in a format where the lowest score can be dropped. Rudy Gobert carries a 98% Bargain Rating on DK, but Memphis ranks second in Defensive Efficiency against opposing centers this season.
Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Elfrid Payton ($5,000) vs. Raptors: +11.91 Projected Plus/Minus
- Royce O’Neale ($3,300) at Grizzlies: +10.24 Projected Plus/Minus
- Andre Drummond ($8,800) at Bulls: +9.00 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kenrich Williams ($4,000) vs. Raptors: +8.84 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kemba Walker ($8,100) vs. Wizards: +8.80 Projected Plus/Minus
You’ll notice a couple Pelicans players as the slate’s best values, which is because both Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore are out tonight.
With those guys off the floor, Payton has been especially valuable, as he’s increased his usage rate by a whopping 6.8% in those situations. At just $5,000, even in a tough matchup against the Raptors, he’s the hardest fade of the slate due to that increased role.
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potentially undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Orlando center Nikola Vucevic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
Vuc has been up and down lately, but he’s shown a massive ceiling, notably going for over 60 DraftKings points a couple days ago. He’s a walking double-double (bonus points on DK), and he has a beautiful matchup against a Dallas team that has ranked 29th in rebound rate over the last month, right around when they traded away several starters.
Friday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently 12 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Nicolas Batum to go over his 10.5-point prop. He’s been playing huge minutes lately, averaging nearly 40 per game over his last five as the Hornets make a final playoff push.
As a result, he’s averaged 13 points per game over that span, and tonight he’ll face a Washington team that ranks 26th defensively overall this season and has been especially atrocious on the road. Given his minutes projection, he’s a value for a lot of his overs.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.