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Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More

Feb 11, 2019 5:12 PM EST
Credit:

Russ Isabella, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Steven Adams

In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight’s slate:

  • Hornets at Pacers (-5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Wizards at Pistons (-5), 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV
  • Knicks at Cavaliers (-1.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Nets at Raptors (-10), 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Bucks (-11.5) at Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
  • Mavericks at Rockets (-11), 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
  • Blazers at Thunder (-5), 8 p.m. ET
  • Clippers at Timberwolves (-4), 8 p.m. ET
  • Heat at Nuggets (-9.5), 9 p.m. ET

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Jump to: Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props | Staff Favorite Bets |
Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends


Monday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Over 224.5 in Mavericks-Rockets: 80% of bets
  • Over 225 in Wizards-Pistons: 79% of bets
  • Bucks -11.5 at Bulls: 78% of bets
  • Pacers -5  vs. Hornets: 75% of bets
  • Over 214.5 in Heat-Nuggets: 73% of bets


Monday NBA: Injuries to Know

In today’s NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the two most important injury situations:

  • Pacers: Myles Turner (knee) is questionable.
  • Wolves: Derrick Rose (hamstring) is questionable. Jeff Teague (foot) is probable. Andrew Wiggins (illness) and Jerryd Bayless (toe) are questionable.

Here’s a snippet from that piece on Turner:

Turner missed four straight games with a shoulder injury in January and Domantas Sabonis replaced him in the starting lineup each game.

Sabonis responded by averaging 39.1 FanDuel points per game in that span, and he has led the team with 38.9 FanDuel points per game in five full games without Turner this season, per the NBA On/Off tool. With a salary of just $6,200, Sabonis would become the chalk option at power forward if Turner is unable to suit up.

However, Turner appears confident that he’ll play. If that’s the case, he makes for an exceptional tournament play on DraftKings, where he carries a 97% Bargain Rating.

The matchup is also favorable for Turner, as Charlotte allows the third-most blocks to opposing centers this season and the most blocks allowed overall. Turner has averaged 3.6 blocks over his past five games and scores 27.1% of his FanDuel points through blocks this season.

For all injury news, plus information on traded/waived players and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.


Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

With rotations still in flux due to the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 on DraftKings:

  • Marquese Chriss ($3,000) vs. Knicks: +7.77 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Chasson Randle at ($3,300) at Pistons: +7.74 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500) at Rockets: +7.61 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Marvin Williams ($4,500) at Pacers: +7.53 Projected Plus/Minus

The top-two values are both near min-priced and are intriguing options for tonight’s slate. Randle, not a household name, will get the start for the Wizards with John Wall out of for the season and backup PG Tomas Satoransky out tonight for personal reasons.

We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Thunder center Steven Adams, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus but should have low ownership.

Adams has been a poor fantasy as of late, but an injury to Jerami Grant should lead to some value. Grant’s absence will mean extended minutes for Patrick Patterson, who is not a strong rebounder at the PF position. Adams will be leaned on heavily tonight in the paint, which gives him upside.


Monday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently nine player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 58% rate.

One is Paul George to go over his 3.5-assist prop. As mentioned above, Grant will be out, and his replacements will almost never have the ball in their hands unless it’s a catch-and-shoot attempt.

George is averaging 4.0 assists per 36 minutes this season, and that number increases to 4.8 when Grant is off the floor and Patrick Patterson is on. We have George projected for nearly 40 minutes tonight, so this seems like a bet worth pursuing.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.


Monday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets