Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More

Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More article feature image
Credit:

Russ Isabella, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Steven Adams

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

  • Hornets at Pacers (-5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Wizards at Pistons (-5), 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV
  • Knicks at Cavaliers (-1.5), 7 p.m. ET
  • Nets at Raptors (-10), 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Bucks (-11.5) at Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
  • Mavericks at Rockets (-11), 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
  • Blazers at Thunder (-5), 8 p.m. ET
  • Clippers at Timberwolves (-4), 8 p.m. ET
  • Heat at Nuggets (-9.5), 9 p.m. ET

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Jump to:Public Bets | Notable Injuries | DFS Values | Player Props | Staff Favorite Bets |
Pro Betting System of the Day | Betting Trends




Monday NBA: Most Public Bets

  • Over 224.5 in Mavericks-Rockets: 80% of bets
  • Over 225 in Wizards-Pistons: 79% of bets
  • Bucks -11.5 at Bulls: 78% of bets
  • Pacers -5  vs. Hornets: 75% of bets
  • Over 214.5 in Heat-Nuggets: 73% of bets


Monday NBA: Injuries to Know

In today's NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the two most important injury situations:

  • Pacers: Myles Turner (knee) is questionable.
  • Wolves: Derrick Rose (hamstring) is questionable. Jeff Teague (foot) is probable. Andrew Wiggins (illness) and Jerryd Bayless (toe) are questionable.

Here's a snippet from that piece on Turner:

Turner missed four straight games with a shoulder injury in January and Domantas Sabonis replaced him in the starting lineup each game.

Sabonis responded by averaging 39.1 FanDuel points per game in that span, and he has led the team with 38.9 FanDuel points per game in five full games without Turner this season, per the NBA On/Off tool. With a salary of just $6,200, Sabonis would become the chalk option at power forward if Turner is unable to suit up.

However, Turner appears confident that he’ll play. If that’s the case, he makes for an exceptional tournament play on DraftKings, where he carries a 97% Bargain Rating.

The matchup is also favorable for Turner, as Charlotte allows the third-most blocks to opposing centers this season and the most blocks allowed overall. Turner has averaged 3.6 blocks over his past five games and scores 27.1% of his FanDuel points through blocks this season.

For all injury news, plus information on traded/waived players and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.




Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

With rotations still in flux due to the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are four players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 on DraftKings:

  • Marquese Chriss ($3,000) vs. Knicks: +7.77 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Chasson Randle at ($3,300) at Pistons: +7.74 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500) at Rockets: +7.61 Projected Plus/Minus
  • Marvin Williams ($4,500) at Pacers: +7.53 Projected Plus/Minus

The top-two values are both near min-priced and are intriguing options for tonight's slate. Randle, not a household name, will get the start for the Wizards with John Wall out of for the season and backup PG Tomas Satoransky out tonight for personal reasons.

We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called "Leverage Score," which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Thunder center Steven Adams, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus but should have low ownership.

Adams has been a poor fantasy as of late, but an injury to Jerami Grant should lead to some value. Grant's absence will mean extended minutes for Patrick Patterson, who is not a strong rebounder at the PF position. Adams will be leaned on heavily tonight in the paint, which gives him upside.




Monday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently nine player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have hit at a 58% rate.

One is Paul George to go over his 3.5-assist prop. As mentioned above, Grant will be out, and his replacements will almost never have the ball in their hands unless it's a catch-and-shoot attempt.

George is averaging 4.0 assists per 36 minutes this season, and that number increases to 4.8 when Grant is off the floor and Patrick Patterson is on. We have George projected for nearly 40 minutes tonight, so this seems like a bet worth pursuing.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.


Monday NBA: Our Experts' Favorite Bets

Matt Moore: Under 215.5 in Hornets-Pacers

The under is 8-20 with the Pacers at home this season. Charlotte’s offense tends to go long stretches where it bogs down, and while the Pacers have more offensive capability than you’d think without Victor Oladipo, their cold spells are equally chilly.

Charlotte can rack it up vs. bad defenses, but the Pacers defense is elite. This one might get a little ploddish, and even at a low number I’ll grab the under.

Rob Perez: Knicks +1.5 at Cavs

The most important game in recent Knicks history.

If the Cavs win, they go up 0.5 games on the Knicks in the tankathon standings. For 20 years, the Knicks have won this game — the one they’re supposed to lose. The one that cost them Steph Curry. The one that cost them the coin flip vs. Minnesota two years ago.

I don’t even need to tell you what’s at stake here. You saw it on Saturday when Zion jumped to block that 3-pointer and never came down — he just kept going through the roof into space.

The Knicks are going to light the arena on fire. I have seen this 100 times. Hell, they might break an NBA record while they’re at it, too. If you can’t tell already, this is an emotional hedge.

Ken Barkley: Over 209.5 in Knicks-Cavs

The Knicks offense hasn’t wowed anyone since they acquired Dennis Smith Jr., but all they’ve done is play the slow-down Pistons twice (who were re-tooling their own team) and the Raptors, who make every bad team look much worse.

Now, finally, a true “show-out” game for a group of players that has been lambasted by other teams — other teams that are actually competitive and have professional players.

With blowout potential low in this game, and the likelihood of voracious defense even lower, I think you get a stage set for players like Kevin Knox, Collin Sexton and Smith to shine … against each other.

With a total fairly low on the spectrum, sign me up for the over, and there’s maybe even a 5% chance I tune in for part of this game just to see if it plays out as anticipated. That’s 5% more of a chance than there is for almost every other Knicks or Cavs game.


Friday NBA: Pro System of the Day

This isn't a Bet Labs Pro System, but it is one that I like to use frequently. It identifies second-half unders due to overreaction by the public and oddsmakers:

Basically, when a first half goes way under the first-half total — 10 points or more — it's been profitable to bet the under in the second half. You might think it'd be wise to bet on regression, but that hasn't been the case, likely because of overreaction by the public.

This system has a Return on Investment (ROI) of 4.9% since the 2004-05 season. If you look at just games with a high full-game total (219 or higher), the ROI increases to 10.7%.

More on this trend here.


Monday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

  • Hornets at Pacers: The under is 20-8 this season in Pacers home games.
  • Wizards at Pistons: The Wizards are 8-20 ATS on the road.
  • Knicks at Cavaliers: The under has hit in nine of the Knicks' last 10 games.
  • Nets at Raptors: The Nets are 16-11 ATS on the road and 22-18 as underdogs.
  • Bucks at Bulls: The Bulls are 22-27-2 ATS, including 10-17 at home.
  • Mavericks at Rockets: The Mavericks have covered nine of their last 10 games.
  • Blazers at Thunder: The over is 16-9 in Thunder home games.
  • Clippers at Timberwolves: The Clippers moneyline is +8.25 units on the road.
  • Heat at Nuggets: The Heat are 17-10 ATS on the road and 16-9-1 as underdogs.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.

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