Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 11 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khris Middleton
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Portland Trail Blazers (-9.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons (-2.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-8) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat (-8.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets (-1.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers (-5) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets (-12), 8 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers (-1) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
All data as of 4:15 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Monday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Warriors -8 at Hornets: 80% of bets
- Sixers -1 at Pelicans: 79% of bets
- Lakers -5 at Grizzlies: 78% of bets
- Over 212.5 in Pacers-Pistons: 74% of bets
- Over 233.5 in Spurs-Nets: 73% of bets
Monday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the slate’s key injury situation tonight:
- Rockets guard James Harden (cervical) is probable.
- Bucks wing Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is doubtful.
- Bulls wing Otto Porter (leg) is doubtful.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on Porter:
The Bulls have ranked first with a 120.0 Offensive Rating in February. Porter debuted six games ago, and the Bulls averaged 115.0 points in the preceding four games.
Shaq Harrison started the second half Saturday in Porter’s absence, and he or Wayne Selden appear the likely candidates to start if Porter is ruled out. Neither costs more than $3,600 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the player who starts will become a cheap punt play.
When Porter has been off the court since debuting, Lauri Markkanen has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points in 63 minutes and Zach LaVine has crafted a team-high +7.4% usage rate differential. Both exceeded 47 FanDuel points against the Bucks earlier this month, and LaVine has cleared that number in two straight against Milwaukee.
Robin Lopez has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games, and he’s been an integral member of the offense, along with Markkanen and LaVine. His $4,100 salary on DraftKings is among the cheapest for projected starting centers, but his restricted ceiling doesn’t translate well in tournaments. Additionally, Brook Lopez costs $500 more and has a more favorable outlook.
The Bulls opened as 11-point home underdogs, but that number has improved to 7.5. They lost to the Bucks by 13 two weeks ago when Giannis Antetokounpo missed a triple-double by two assists. Now that Antetokounmpo is doubtful, the spread seems appropriate. If Porter is cleared to play, the spread may dip even lower.
Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are seven players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +9.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Wayne Selden ($3,200) vs. Milwaukee: +10.48 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dwight Powell ($4,000) at Clippers: +10.34 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kelly Olynyk ($3,900) vs. Suns: +10.08 Projected Plus/Minus
- Malcolm Brogdon ($5,400) at Chicago: +9.84 Projected Plus/Minus
- Boban Marjanovic ($5,500) at Pelicans: +9.70 Projected Plus/Minus
- Brook Lopez ($4,600) at Bulls: +9.69 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dwayne Wade ($5,100) vs. Suns: +9.57 Projected Plus/Minus
You’ll notice that two Bucks, and there are two more — Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe — with Projected Plus/Minus values of over +8.0. That’s what happens when NBA MVP favorite Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful to play, as he is tonight.
Giannis is averaging a high 31.9% usage rate along with 27.2 points, 12.7 rebounds and six assists per game. That’s a lot of production to be spread around the team.
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Philly point guard Ben Simmons, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
A lot of users will roster Bledsoe along with perhaps a cheaper play to fit in as many Bucks guys as possible. That could mean paying up for Simmons, who is coming off a 29-7-10 night last game without Joel Embiid (who is still out), could be worthwhile in tournaments. Simmons has a beautiful matchup against the fast-paced Pelicans, too.
Monday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently eight player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% rate.
One is Josh Jackson to go under his 13.5-point prop. He’s seen a drop in playing time recently, playing fewer than 16 minutes in two of his last three games.
As a result, he’s gone under this number in each of his past three, and based on his per-minute rates we’re projecting him to go under again — like way under.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Monday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets
Matt Moore: Hornets +8 vs. Warriors
The Warriors are 8-22-1 against the spread when favored by fewer than 9.5 points this season. They CRUSH the bad teams, but haven’t covered well against teams of any value.
Now they’re on the road without Draymond Green, the key to their defense.
The Hornets remain in a competitive playoff race while the Warriors are just killing time before the playoffs. Golden State wins this game, but eight is way too many points for a team with legitimate NBA players 1-7.
Moore: DeMarcus Cousins over 15.5 points
Bonus Moore prop!
The eighth guy for the Hornets is Willy Hernangomez, who has the second-worst on-off Net Rating differential of any player playing more than 400 minutes for Charlotte. He lacks size, savvy and skill.
Cousins struggled mightily in the post against the Rockets (particularly against Kenneth Faried), but should have a much easier time against the Hornets’ front line and will get more touches as a result of Green’s absence.
Ken Barkley: Lakers -5 at Grizzlies
Look, I get it. You bet on Los Angeles against New Orleans thinking LeBron and Co. were in “playoff mode,” then at halftime you remembered that most of the Lakers have no playoff mode because they’ve never been.
You’ll never get burned by them again, you swear to yourself.
Well, what if I said Mike Conley is playing injured and slumping, and Memphis is also without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Kyle Anderson? Surely, if the Lakers closed -6.5 at New Orleans — which now has all its non-Anthony Davis players healthy — then -5 here is a bit of a steal.
Memphis has lost to both the Bulls and Cavs in the last 10 days, and I don’t see any reason for an upswing considering its health and general competitive situation.
Evan Abrams: Pistons -2 vs. Pacers
The Pacers have played 24 games this season without star Victor Oladipo. Since the injury that took Oladipo out for the season, Indiana is 8-5 straight-up, including winning eight of its last nine overall since February 1.
Over that stretch, the Pacers have a Net Rating of +12.9, the second-highest mark in the NBA. Over that same span, the Pistons have a Net Rating of +9.4, fourth in the league.
Detroit is by no means the class of the Eastern Conference, but compared to the other teams Indiana has faced without Oladipo this season, I think Detroit should be able solve the Pacers’ recent success.
I like the Pistons in this spot at home.
Monday NBA: Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs.” It highlights games in which there’s a discrepancy between the amount of wagers and dollars bet on a game’s over/under:
This system has produced a 8.6% Return on Investment (ROI) since 2015, when we first started tracking bet and money percentages. It’s been our most profitable Pro System this season, going 56-38 with a 16% ROI.
The reason this system is so intriguing is because it’s measuring the win rate against the closing number. It’s identifying sharp money on the total, it’s moving up as a result and the over is still hitting at a high rate.
It’s the night of overs. There’s a ridiculous five matches tonight:
- Over 225 in Blazers-Cavs
- Over 215.5 in Suns-Heat
- Over 223 in Lakers-Grizzlies
- Over 238 in Kings-Wolves
- Over 240.5 in 76ers-Pelicans
Monday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Blazers at Cavs: The Blazers are 21-11 ATS when listed as the favorite.
- Pacers at Pistons: The under is 24-15 in Pacers conference games.
- Warriors at Hornets: The over is 18-10 in Warriors away games.
- Suns at Heat: The Heat are 10-17-1 ATS at home and 11-18 as favorites.
- Spurs at Nets: The over is 23-9 in Spurs away games.
- Lakers at Grizzlies: The under is 26-10 in Grizzlies conference games.
- Kings at Wolves: The over is 26-13 in Kings conference games.
- Bucks at Bulls: The Bucks are 17-10-2 ATS on the road.
- Hawks at Rockets: The over is 18-10 in Rockets home games.
- 76ers at Pelicans: The 76ers are 12-16 ATS on the road.
- Mavericks at Clippers: The over is 19-11 when the Clippers are favorites.