Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 7 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buddy Hield
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets (-5), 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-8.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs (-1), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5) at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz (-10.5), 9 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings (-11), 10 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers (-4), 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Monday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 226.5 in Mavericks-Nets: 66% of bets
- Under 230 in Nuggets-Spurs: 64% of bets
- Under 234 in Clippers-Lakers: 61% of bets
- Spurs -1 vs. Nuggets: 60% of bets
- Bucks -13 at Suns: 60% of bets
Monday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of one of tonight’s key injury situations:
- New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Davis (illness) is questionable.
- Atlanta Hawks: John Collins (illness) is doubtful, while Taurean Prince (personal) is out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on Davis:
Davis hasn’t played more than 21 minutes in a game since the All-Star break, and the Pelicans won three straight games sans Davis. Jahlil Okafor has started when Davis has been unavailable, but the Pelicans have notched a team-low -16.1 Net Rating with Okafor on the court over the last six games.
Okafor has averaged 32.25 FanDuel points per game in 12 starts since January. However, he hasn’t posted more than 21.9 FanDuel points in his last four starts as Cheick Diallo has become a prioritized member of the rotation. While Okafor profiles as a punt option at $3,400 on DraftKings, Diallo may carry the higher ceiling if Davis is unable to play.
In the games Davis and Nikola Mirotic (traded) have jointly been unavailable over the past two months, Diallo has averaged a team-high and FantasyLabs’ +7.8 FanDuel Plus/Minus, per the NBA On/Off tool. Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle have averaged more than 41.0 FanDuel points in those same games minus Davis and Mirotic.
Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are seven players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Dwight Powell ($5,200) at Nets: +13.03 Projected Plus/Minus
- Alex Len ($4,000) at Heat: +11.84 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dirk Nowitzki ($3,200) at Nets: +9.18 Projected Plus/Minus
- Rajon Rondo ($5,500) vs. Clippers: +8.80 Projected Plus/Minus
Yet again Powell is in this article, as he just continues to crush DFS value and won’t get a sufficient price hike on DraftKings. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games at this point, averaging a stupid +8.92 Plus/Minus.
Powell is playing huge minutes right now for the Mavericks, and we’re currently projecting him for 36.5 tonight against the Nets. Given he’s averaging an efficient 1.01 DraftKings points per minute, per our Models, he’s nearly a lock to hit value yet again.
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Powell’s teammate, Luka Doncic, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
Luka went way under expectations last game, but the rookie wunderkind is a walking triple-double threat any time he takes the court, and triple-doubles are especially valuable on DraftKings. This game has sharp money on the over/under, so stacking Powell, Luka and even more players from this game could be a wise move in tournaments.
Monday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently eight player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% rate.
One of those is Buddy Hield to go over his 5.5-rebound prop. He’s been gobbling up boards lately, averaging 6.8 per game. Six or 6.5 would have been a more fair line.
Further, rebounds are more available with Marvin Bagley still out for the Kings, and it’s not like Willie Cauley-Stein and the other healthy bigs are rebounding savants. Further, he’s facing a truly atrocious Knicks team that ranks 24th in rebound rate and could still be without DeAndre Jordan.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Monday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets
Ken Barkley: Under 230 in Nuggets-Spurs
As incredible as Denver’s splits are at home, especially at the offensive end, the Nuggets become a league-average offense on the road.
- Home Offensive Rating: 118.1
- Road Offensive Rating: 109.4
And they’re facing a Spurs team that’s strung together solid defensive performances since returning from the rodeo road trip.
The first two meetings between these teams several months ago were lower-scoring than is projected tonight, but those also didn’t feature Gary Harris or Will Barton for Denver, so they aren’t very predictive at all.
But with Harris and Barton now playing, what I’m more interested in is the time it’s going to take for Denver’s starters to become a cohesive unit. We’ve seen it the last two games (both at home, mind you), where the team put up poor offensive performances by its own standards against both Utah and New Orleans.
Until I see evidence they’ve got their collective “swagger” back and are performing well together, I think the under is a good idea, especially on the road.
Matt Moore: A Trio of Props and a Side
Kevin Huerter under 11.5 points
This one rates out as a “10” betting value in our system, and it checks out. The Heat are the 13th-best team in limiting spot-up opportunities per game, and that’s how Huerter generates 26% of his total offense.
Miami is top-15 vs. the pick-and-roll as well, where Huerter gets another 25% of his offense, and Huerter is coming off a back injury, which could limit him. With the Hawks sluggish on a back-to-back, I’m with the under here.
Hawks +8 (it’s now 9.5) vs. Miami
Miami is trash at home, and I will grab any team that isn’t the Knicks against them getting more than four because, seriously, Miami is trash at home. (12-18-1 ATS this season.)
Danilo Gallinari over 20.5 points
I’m going against the model here, which has him at 18.6 points tonight. Gallinari starts with the Clippers’ farcical “Let’s Make Sure Lou Williams Wins 6MOY” starters group with Zubac and Shamet, which limits their offensive output at a meager 105.9 Offensive Rating.
But they’re also going against the Lakers, who cannot defend anyone, and given that he plays power forward alongside three guards, he’ll likely be matched by two players, LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma, in those minutes.
If it’s on-ball, then, yeah, for sure, LeBron will lock down. But off-ball, LeBron completely loses guys, which will open Gallinari for cuts and corner-3s on weak-side clear-outs.
With the bench unit, Gallinari will cook. There’s also a decent chance the Lakers start LeBron at center, which puts Gallinari matched up against Kuzma even more, and Gallinari is notoriously brilliant at drawing fouls, especially on inexperienced players.
LeBron James over 29 points
I’ll tell you one thing: LeBron James is NOT going to let himself be blamed for the Lakers’ demise. He’s going to put up whatever numbers he needs to in order to avoid heat if LA fails to make the playoffs.
“Gotta get LeBron some help” is the narrative Klutch wants and that’s the narrative Klutch is gonna get.
Bryan Mears: Clippers +3.5 at Lakers
I detailed my thoughts on this game here, and there’s also sharp money on the Clippers tonight, as evidenced by this profitable Pro System. Let’s do it.
Monday NBA: Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs.” It identifies situations in which there’s sharp money on the total.
This has been our most-profitable NBA system this year, going 62-45-1 this season, good for a 12.6% Return on Investment (ROI). Since 2015, it has hit at a 55.5% rate for a nice 8.1% ROI.
It’s an especially intriguing system because it’s pointing out sharp money, the total is moving as a result and over is still hitting at the closing number.
There are two matches tonight:
- Over 226.5 in Mavericks-Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Over 230 in Nuggets-Spurs, 8:30 p.m. ET
Monday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Mavericks at Nets: The Mavericks are 23-15 ATS as underdogs.
- Hawks at Heat: The Heat are 12-18-1 ATS at home and 12-19 as favorites.
- Nuggets at Spurs: The Nuggets are 11-18 ATS on the road.
- Bucks at Suns: The Bucks are 20-11-2 ATS on the road.
- Pelicans at Jazz: The over is 23-18 in Pelicans conference games.
- Knicks at Kings: The Kings are 22-9-1 ATS at home and 13-3 as favorites.
- Clippers at Lakers: The under is 21-10 in Lakers home games.