Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ben Simmons
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers (-5.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors (-7), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-1) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-6.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Chicago Bulls at at New York Knicks (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz (-11.5), 9 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns (-2.5), 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV
All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Monday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 215.5 in Magic-Raptors: 76% of bets
- Blazers -3.5 at Wolves: 70% of bets
- Over 218 in 76ers-Mavericks: 68% of bets
- Over 226 in Blazers-Wolves: 67% of bets
- Over 224.5 in Cavs-Suns: 65% of bets
Monday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of some of tonight’s key injury situations.
- Detroit Pistons: Blake Griffin (knee) is out.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (rest) and Jimmy Butler (back) are out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Sixers:
Monday marks just the second game without Embiid and Butler since Butler was acquired in mid-November. Jonah Bolden will make his second consecutive start while James Ennis will replace Butler in the starting lineup.
In Saturday’s win without Embiid, Bolden logged more than 31 minutes and exploded for a season-high 43.5 DK points. He’ll remain an intriguing tournament target with a sub-$5k salary on both DK and FD. Mike Scott led the reserves with 19.9 minutes and backup center Boban Marjanovic was held to just 7.2 minutes.
Tobias Harris has seen a usage bump of +8.0% with both Butler and Embiid off the court since arriving in Philadelphia on Feb. 8, resulting in an average of 1.15 DK points per minute. He’s an elite target at $7,200 on FD given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Ben Simmons is coming off 52.25 DK points in his last game and has carried a monster workload with Embiid out of the lineup recently. At $9,000 on DK, he represents a fantastic option with a high floor and ceiling thanks to the triple-double bonus.
Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +9.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Walter Lemon Jr. ($3,000) at Knicks: +16.27 Projected Plus/Minus
- Trey Burke ($4,000) vs. 76ers: +13.24 Projected Plus/Minus
- Richaun Holmes ($4,500) vs. Cavs: +10.63 Projected Plus/Minus
- Devin Booker ($10,100) vs. Cavs: +9.55 Projected Plus/Minus
There’s more on the Suns situation below in the props section, but let’s talk about the slate’s current best projected value in Lemon Jr.
Yes, he’s a real basketball player; he’s a journeyman from Bradley who played overseas for a couple years before getting a shot with the Pelicans last year and now finding himself in a starting spot role for the Bulls tonight.
Chicago remains very injured, missing Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and Otto Porter tonight. And, of course, Lauri Markkanen was shut down for the season last week. That means the Bulls are rolling out a starting lineup tonight of Lemon Jr., Shaq Harrison, Wayne Selden, Brandon Sampson and Robin Lopez. Someone is going to have to produce, and taking a min-priced guard doesn’t seem like an awful idea.
Monday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently four player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Devin Booker to go over his 6.5 assist prop. The Suns may or may not be intentionally tanking, but the end result is the same: They’re super shorthanded. Tonight against the Cavs they’ll be without Deandre Ayton, Tyler Johnson, TJ Warren and Kelly Oubre.
That means it’ll be the Booker show; he should have the ball in his hands as the lead initiator on a Harden-like number of possessions. Without the guys listed above on the floor, Booker has averaged a nearly 50% usage rate, showing how much he’ll be leaned on to score and distribute. In that sample, he’s also averaging 40.9 points per 36 minutes — bet the over on all things Booker today.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Monday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
Rob Perez: Suns -2 vs. Cavaliers
There are no advanced analytics for this. At some point, the Suns are going to stop being the most underachieving supporting cast in the NBA and win Devin Booker a damn game.
Booker, if you are unaware, has dropped in his last three games…
- 48 points (19-of-29 shooting) and 11 assists
- 50 points (19-of-29 shooting) and 10 rebounds
- 59 points (19-of-34 shooting)
If he would have gotten to 50 in that 48-point one, he would have become the first player since Wilt, Elgin Baylor, MJ and Kobe to record three straight 50-point contests. He’s not Monta Ellis’ing this either, just jacking up shots as soon as he crosses half court — he is balling.
There’s no DeAndre Ayton tonight, which stinks, but there is simply too much talent on the Suns roster for them to lose a seventh straight game at home against the damn CAVS. They won’t do it because they’re better at basketball than Cleveland — we could debate that all day — they’ll do it because they owe Devin Booker. Book it.
Matt Moore: Cavs +2 at Suns
No, they won’t. Booker will score 50 and they’ll lose, because that’s what the Suns do. The Cavs are healthier. No Oubre, no Tyler Johnson (so no decent point guard), and no DeAndre Ayton. The Cavs play better together and have better leadership. And you’re getting points with them.
Everyone knows the Suns are terrible; that’s why they’ve been a favorite only six times this year. And they’re 2-4 ATS in those games and straight-up! Devin Booker has never won a game scoring more than 50. Two things are certain for Phoenix in March and April: Devin Booker’s going to put up a bunch of points and they’re going to lose anyway.
Matt Moore: Pacers -5.5 vs. Pistons
No Blake Griffin tonight, and the Pistons are 1-3 ATS without their star, who is the engine of their team. The Pacers are lights-out at home (22-16 ATS), and without Griffin to draw help on damage inside, they’ll be able to stick with the shooters on the edge. Darren Collison is out, but the Pacers have two great backup options in Cory Joseph and Aaron Holiday. Bojan Bogdanovic has been on one lately, and I think that continues as Indy cruises to a comfortable win.
Matt Moore: Magic +5.5 vs. Raptors
This is the very prototype of a Magic cover, and I don’t hate the moneyline. The Raptors are cruising — not in any sort of rush to try and catch Milwaukee for the 1-seed. Orlando is 15-7-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better and 8-4 ATS on the road against such teams.
I like the Nikola Vucevic matchup vs. Marc Gasol due to their similarities, and the Magic’s bench unit should be able to keep it close to the end of the 3rd/start with the 4th, with one more push from the starters at the end for at least the backdoor cover.
Monday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Fade Tanking Teams.” Historically, the worst teams in the league have been overvalued at the end of the season against mid-tier teams — those that are fighting for playoff spots and seeding.
This system has gone 389-285-11 (57.7%) since 2004, good for an excellent 12.5% Return on Investment. Even this season, with less incentive to tank due to the new lottery odds, the system has still turned a profit, going 23-17 (57.5%) for a 12.4% ROI.
There’s one match tonight:
- Sixers -5.5 at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Monday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Pistons at Pacers: The under is 25-13 in Pacers home games.
- Magic at Raptors: The Raptors are 16-23 ATS at home.
- Bucks at Nets: The Bucks are 22-15-2 ATS on the road.
- Heat at Celtics: The Heat are 25-12 ATS on the road.
- Bulls at Knicks: The Knicks are 12-24-2 ATS at home.
- Blazers at Wolves: The Blazers are 28-16-1 ATS as favorites.
- 76ers at Mavericks: The Mavericks are 29-20-1 ATS as underdogs.
- Hornets at Jazz: The over is 23-14 when the Hornets are underdogs.
- Cavs at Suns: The Suns are 16-22 ATS at home.