Monday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 9 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ben Simmons
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers (-5.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors (-7), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-1) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-6.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Chicago Bulls at at New York Knicks (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz (-11.5), 9 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns (-2.5), 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV
All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Monday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Monday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 215.5 in Magic-Raptors: 76% of bets
- Blazers -3.5 at Wolves: 70% of bets
- Over 218 in 76ers-Mavericks: 68% of bets
- Over 226 in Blazers-Wolves: 67% of bets
- Over 224.5 in Cavs-Suns: 65% of bets
Monday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of some of tonight’s key injury situations.
- Detroit Pistons: Blake Griffin (knee) is out.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid (rest) and Jimmy Butler (back) are out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Sixers:
Monday marks just the second game without Embiid and Butler since Butler was acquired in mid-November. Jonah Bolden will make his second consecutive start while James Ennis will replace Butler in the starting lineup.
In Saturday’s win without Embiid, Bolden logged more than 31 minutes and exploded for a season-high 43.5 DK points. He’ll remain an intriguing tournament target with a sub-$5k salary on both DK and FD. Mike Scott led the reserves with 19.9 minutes and backup center Boban Marjanovic was held to just 7.2 minutes.
Tobias Harris has seen a usage bump of +8.0% with both Butler and Embiid off the court since arriving in Philadelphia on Feb. 8, resulting in an average of 1.15 DK points per minute. He’s an elite target at $7,200 on FD given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Ben Simmons is coming off 52.25 DK points in his last game and has carried a monster workload with Embiid out of the lineup recently. At $9,000 on DK, he represents a fantastic option with a high floor and ceiling thanks to the triple-double bonus.
Monday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +9.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Walter Lemon Jr. ($3,000) at Knicks: +16.27 Projected Plus/Minus
- Trey Burke ($4,000) vs. 76ers: +13.24 Projected Plus/Minus
- Richaun Holmes ($4,500) vs. Cavs: +10.63 Projected Plus/Minus
- Devin Booker ($10,100) vs. Cavs: +9.55 Projected Plus/Minus
There’s more on the Suns situation below in the props section, but let’s talk about the slate’s current best projected value in Lemon Jr.
Yes, he’s a real basketball player; he’s a journeyman from Bradley who played overseas for a couple years before getting a shot with the Pelicans last year and now finding himself in a starting spot role for the Bulls tonight.
Chicago remains very injured, missing Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and Otto Porter tonight. And, of course, Lauri Markkanen was shut down for the season last week. That means the Bulls are rolling out a starting lineup tonight of Lemon Jr., Shaq Harrison, Wayne Selden, Brandon Sampson and Robin Lopez. Someone is going to have to produce, and taking a min-priced guard doesn’t seem like an awful idea.
Monday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently four player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Devin Booker to go over his 6.5 assist prop. The Suns may or may not be intentionally tanking, but the end result is the same: They’re super shorthanded. Tonight against the Cavs they’ll be without Deandre Ayton, Tyler Johnson, TJ Warren and Kelly Oubre.
That means it’ll be the Booker show; he should have the ball in his hands as the lead initiator on a Harden-like number of possessions. Without the guys listed above on the floor, Booker has averaged a nearly 50% usage rate, showing how much he’ll be leaned on to score and distribute. In that sample, he’s also averaging 40.9 points per 36 minutes — bet the over on all things Booker today.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.