Tuesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 10 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More

In today's NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.

Here are the games on tonight's slate:

• Boston Celtics (-5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
• San Antonio Spurs (-4) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
• Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors (-13.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
• Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-4.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
• Atlanta Hawks (-2) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
• Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET on TNT
• LA Clippers (-2.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
• Sacramento Kings (-2) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets (-7.5), 9 p.m. ET
• Washington Wizards at LA Lakers (-2), 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.

Tuesday NBA: Most Public Bets

• Over 211.5 in Pistons-Nuggets: 81% of bets
• Clippers -2.5 at Wolves: 78% of bets
• Nuggets -7.5 vs. Pistons: 74% of bets
• Over 205 in Magic-Heat: 73% of bets
• Hawks -2 at Pelicans: 68% of bets

Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know

In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight's key injury situations.

• Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine (thigh, knee) and Otto Porter (shoulder) are out. Kris Dunn (back) is doubtful.
• Boston Celtics: Kyrie Irving (rest) is out. Al Horford (knee) and Jayson Tatum (back) are "questionable-to-probable." Robert Williams (back) is doubtful.

Here's a snippet from that piece on the Celtics:

Terry Rozier is expected to replace Irving in the starting lineup and has averaged 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists in 11 starts this season.

Even with an increased role, Rozier isn’t necessarily a cash game lock as both DraftKings and FanDuel aggressively raised his salary ahead of time. However, his individual matchup is exceptional as opposing point guard Collin Sexton ranks 100 out of 101 point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus this season.

In the last two matchups against the Cavs without Irving, Gordon Hayward has averaged 31.6 DK points. In addition to Irving being absent, Horford missed one game and Marcus Morris missed the other. In 11 total games played without Irving this season, Hayward has benefitted from a team-high +3.7% usage rate increase, per our NBA On/Off tool.

Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Tatum have also seen an uptick in usage rate with Irving off the court, while Horford has led the team with 36.5 DK points per game.

For all injury news and projected starting lineups, see our daily piece here.

Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays

Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there's a ton of value on today's NBA DFS slate.

Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:

• Thomas Bryant ($5,200) at Lakers: +9.53 Projected Plus/Minus
• Antonio Blakeney ($3,400) at Raptors: +8.10 Projected Plus/Minus
• Stanley Johnson ($3,500) vs. Hawks: +8.41 Projected Plus/Minus
• Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,800) at Raptors: +7.73 Projected Plus/Minus
• Shaq Harrison ($4,400) at Raptors: +7.67 Projected Plus/Minus

You'll notice several Bulls players at the top of our NBA models today, which is admittedly pretty scary. They're just so thin today, with Zach LaVine (thigh, knee) and Otto Porter (shoulder) already out and Kris Dunn (back) doubtful.

As a result, guys like Blakeney, Arcidiacono and Harrison are projected to play heavy minutes, something their near-minimum salaries don't reflect. As a result, they don't have to do much to exceed their salary-based expectations.

Lauri Markkanen will also be an intriguing target for the Bulls, as he's averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with those injured players off the floor. He'll be relied upon heavily to bring offense against a tough Raptors team.

For more DFS information, read today's DFS breakdown.

Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props

There are currently seven player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.

One of those is P.J. Tucker to go over his 5.5 rebound prop. The Rockets will be without both Gerald Green and Kenneth Faried, and it's likely Mike D'Antoni will continue to run a tight, eight/nine-man rotation. We currently have Tucker projected for 35.5 minutes — second on the team.

In a tight affair against one of the league's best teams and in a game Tucker will possibly play more than a few smallball-5 minutes, the over could be a wise bet.

Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.

Tuesday NBA Staff Favorite Bets

Ken Barkley: Spurs -4 at Hornets

Both teams are in big fatigue spots, with the Spurs on Game 3 of a road trip and the Hornets playing their fourth in six nights. For the Hornets, their roster continues to be affected by injury, as it appears both Cody Zeller and Nicolas Batum will miss another game.

I understand that Charlotte has had crazy wins recently, with the comeback over Boston and then the Jeremy Lamb miracle against Toronto. Yes, the team is fighting for its playoff life, but these games have been marred by incredibly poor play defensively, and that can’t be overlooked.

The Hornets let Toronto shoot 58.4% (!!) from the field but created enough extra possessions with turnovers and offensive rebounds to nullify their defensive ineptitude. Against Boston, the defense wasn’t THAT bad — how could it have been? That’s almost impossible — but it was still poor.

What Charlotte is doing is fun, but from a raw metrics standpoint, the Spurs are more than seven points (on a neutral court) better since the All-Star break, have no major injuries (while Charlotte has a couple impactful ones) and there is no fatigue advantage one way or another that is realistically quantifiable.

I’ll take San Antonio at this number.

Matt LaMarca: Willie Cauley-Stein Under 8.5 rebounds

Cauley-Stein has recorded at least nine rebounds in three of his past four games, but that belies the fact that he’s seen a drastic reduction in playing time recently.

He’s logged 20 or fewer minutes in four of his past five games, despite the fact that Harry Giles has missed two of those games with an injury. Marvin Bagley dominated in 36 minutes in his last game, and he figures to continue to see significant minutes as the number two pick in last year’s draft.

The Mavericks have also been one of the better rebounding teams in the league this season — they currently rank ninth in team rebound rate — in addition to ranking just 20th in pace.

This is the perfect matchup to sell high on Cauley-Stein. I’d play the under up to -140.

Bryan Mears: Wolves +3 vs. Clippers

One Bet Labs system I really like is called "Bad Teams Against the Public." It's pretty simple: Bad teams (win rate of 45% or worse) getting very little support in the betting market have performed very well against-the-spread historically:

These teams this year have gone 39-15-2 (72.2%) ATS, good for an insane 39.4% Return on Investment. These matches aren't pretty — they're the worst teams getting no support — but they're profitable.

Hold your nose tonight and bet the Wolves.

Tuesday NBA Pro System of the Day

At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called "Reverse Line Movement Unders." It identifies unders in which more bets are on the over but the line moves down as a result of sharp money.

There's a small sample on this trend, as there have been only 57 total matches since 2015. In those games, however, the under has gone 38-18-1 (67.9%), good for a ridiculous 31.8% Return on Investment (ROI). The unders have hit by an average of 4.77 points per game.

There's one match tonight:

• Under 205 in Magic-Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET

Tuesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game

• Celtics at Cavs: The over is 34-25 when the Celtics are favorites.
• Spurs at Hornets: The over is 23-14 in Spurs away games.
• Bulls at Raptors: The over is 27-18 in Raptors conference games.
• Magic at Heat: The Heat are 15-21-1 ATS at home.
• Hawks at Pelicans: The Pelicans moneyline is -7.63 units at home.
• Rockets at Bucks: The under is 8-2 in the Rockets' last 10 games.
• Clippers at Wolves: The Clippers are 26-12 ATS as favorites.
• Kings at Mavericks: The under is 15-6 when the Kings are favorites.
• Pistons at Nuggets: The Nuggets are 23-13 ATS at home.
• Wizards at Lakers: The Wizards are 8-28 straight-up and 12-24 ATS on the road.

For many more trends on every game, download The Action Network app.