Tuesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 10 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lauri Markkanen
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Boston Celtics (-5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs (-4) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors (-13.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-4.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks (-2) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- LA Clippers (-2.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings (-2) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets (-7.5), 9 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at LA Lakers (-2), 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Tuesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 211.5 in Pistons-Nuggets: 81% of bets
- Clippers -2.5 at Wolves: 78% of bets
- Nuggets -7.5 vs. Pistons: 74% of bets
- Over 205 in Magic-Heat: 73% of bets
- Hawks -2 at Pelicans: 68% of bets
Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of tonight’s key injury situations.
- Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine (thigh, knee) and Otto Porter (shoulder) are out. Kris Dunn (back) is doubtful.
- Boston Celtics: Kyrie Irving (rest) is out. Al Horford (knee) and Jayson Tatum (back) are “questionable-to-probable.” Robert Williams (back) is doubtful.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Celtics:
Terry Rozier is expected to replace Irving in the starting lineup and has averaged 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists in 11 starts this season.
Even with an increased role, Rozier isn’t necessarily a cash game lock as both DraftKings and FanDuel aggressively raised his salary ahead of time. However, his individual matchup is exceptional as opposing point guard Collin Sexton ranks 100 out of 101 point guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus this season.
In the last two matchups against the Cavs without Irving, Gordon Hayward has averaged 31.6 DK points. In addition to Irving being absent, Horford missed one game and Marcus Morris missed the other. In 11 total games played without Irving this season, Hayward has benefitted from a team-high +3.7% usage rate increase, per our NBA On/Off tool.
Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Tatum have also seen an uptick in usage rate with Irving off the court, while Horford has led the team with 36.5 DK points per game.
Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Thomas Bryant ($5,200) at Lakers: +9.53 Projected Plus/Minus
- Antonio Blakeney ($3,400) at Raptors: +8.10 Projected Plus/Minus
- Stanley Johnson ($3,500) vs. Hawks: +8.41 Projected Plus/Minus
- Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,800) at Raptors: +7.73 Projected Plus/Minus
- Shaq Harrison ($4,400) at Raptors: +7.67 Projected Plus/Minus
You’ll notice several Bulls players at the top of our NBA models today, which is admittedly pretty scary. They’re just so thin today, with Zach LaVine (thigh, knee) and Otto Porter (shoulder) already out and Kris Dunn (back) doubtful.
As a result, guys like Blakeney, Arcidiacono and Harrison are projected to play heavy minutes, something their near-minimum salaries don’t reflect. As a result, they don’t have to do much to exceed their salary-based expectations.
Lauri Markkanen will also be an intriguing target for the Bulls, as he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with those injured players off the floor. He’ll be relied upon heavily to bring offense against a tough Raptors team.
Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently seven player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is P.J. Tucker to go over his 5.5 rebound prop. The Rockets will be without both Gerald Green and Kenneth Faried, and it’s likely Mike D’Antoni will continue to run a tight, eight/nine-man rotation. We currently have Tucker projected for 35.5 minutes — second on the team.
In a tight affair against one of the league’s best teams and in a game Tucker will possibly play more than a few smallball-5 minutes, the over could be a wise bet.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.