Wednesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 11 Games: Favorite Bets, Injuries to Know, More
Photo credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, as well as analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Houston Rockets (-4.5) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-9) at Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets (-5.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves (-5) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics (-2.5), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies (-3), 8 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs (-4), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers (-1) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz (-9.5), 9 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Wednesday NBA: Most Public Bets
- Over 223 in Warriors-Heat: 83% of bets
- Nets -5.5 vs. Wizards: 77% of bets
- Lakers -5.5 vs. Pelicans: 74% of bets
- Over 235 in Bucks-Kings: 69% of bets
- Under 227.5 in Clippers-Jazz: 67% of bets
Wednesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of the slate’s key injury situation tonight:
- Wolves PG Jeff Teague (knee) is questionable.
- Warriors C DeMarcus Cousins (rest) is out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on Cousins:
Kevon Looney started 20 of the last 21 games before Cousins made his season debut, and he also drew the start at center when Cousins rested right before the All-Star break in the second leg of a back-to-back.
In his most recent start, Looney logged 24 minutes while providing 20 DraftKings points. With a minimum-priced salary ($3,500) on FanDuel, he makes sense as a viable punt candidate where the lowest score can be dropped.
In 14 games with the team, Cousins has ranked first with a 28.3% usage rate. His absence will allow for increased rates for Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. Durant and Curry each produced a usage rate above 30% without Cousins, and both players remain under $10,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Wednesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are seven players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +8.0 (which is ridiculous value) on DraftKings:
- Dwight Powell ($4,300) vs. Pacers: +11.01 Projected Plus/Minus
- Kevon Looney ($3,300) at Heat: +9.84 Projected Plus/Minus
- Dirk Nowitzki ($3,100) vs. Pacers: +8.72 Projected Plus/Minus
- Nicolas Batum ($4,700) vs. Rockets: +8.34 Projected Plus/Minus
Poor Powell. What will it take for DraftKings to give him a salary raise?
The dude has done nothing but crush lately, posting a +7.83 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, exceeding value in seven of those. He exploded in his last game for 49.0 fantasy points, going for 24 points, eight rebounds, four assists, two steals and two blocks.
The guy can fill up a box score, he’s playing huge minutes and he’s still just above $4,000. What more can you want?
We also have a new metric this season at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued guaranteed prize pool plays.
One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on DraftKings is Bucks wing Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.
We’re currently betting that a lot of DFS users will elect to roster LeBron James, who is in essentially a must-win game with a high total at home against the Pelicans. That means Giannis at essentially the same price in a positive matchup against the fast-paced Kings could go under-owned. Yes, please.
Wednesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently eight player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% rate
One of those is Justin Holiday to go under his 11.5-point prop. He’s seen his minutes wildly fluctuate recently, and he’s not exactly a high-usage player anyway. It has resulted in him going under this total in each of his past five games.
We have him projected to play just under 30 minutes tonight, but he’s also projected to use just 15% of the Grizzlies’ possessions while on the floor. Given his poor shooting this season (37.1%), he’s unlikely to go off tonight.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Wednesday NBA: Our Experts’ Favorite Bets
John Ewing: DeMarre Carroll over 10.5 points
Lots to like about this prop. First, the Nets-Wizards’ over/under is 238, up from 236.5. Bettors expect this game to be a shoot-out — always a positive when betting over on a point total.
Second, Washington has allowed opposing small forwards to score 21.8 points per game (28th in the NBA). Third, this prop has a Bet Quality of 10 (per FantasyLabs Props Tool); props with a 10 rating have hit at a 57% rate this season. I’ll take this over.
Rob Perez: Under 215.5 in Mavericks-Pacers
I, like many of you, didn’t know the Pacers have the top-ranked defense in the NBA (103.3 points allowed per game) . It always passed the eye test, but since Victor Oladipo went down it’s somehow gotten … better?
The combination of the Pacers’ most efficient scorer being out with an ankle injury (Domantas Sabonis) and Tim Hardaway Jr. launching 30-footers like he’s paid on commission, means I’ll take an under in a game where both teams might finish under 100 points each.
Travis Reed: Wizards +5.5 at Nets
Teams that have a bad winning percentage against the spread and failed to cover in their last head-to-head matchup against a team have covered their next matchup 59.2% of the time over the last six seasons.
The Wizards have a pathetic 43% cover rate this season and failed to cover by 4.5 points in their last game against the Nets. Thus, they fit this incredibly consistent system.
Bryan Mears: Over 217 in Bulls-Grizzlies
I mostly like this because it matches our most-profitable NBA Pro Systems at Bet Labs, called “Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs.” It identifies sharp money on the total and hits at a high rate despite seeing line movement toward the over.
There’s also basketball reasons to like it. First, Otto Porter will play after being questionable, and he’s been a huge addition for the Bulls. They’ve been a ridiculous 18.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on vs. off, and 15.4 points/100 of that has been on offense. Those are stupid numbers.
Further, the Grizzlies have been worse defensively this season without what was their starting frontcourt of the future a month ago in Marc Gasol (traded) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (injured). I’ll take the over given those factors.
Wednesday NBA: Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Fade Tanking Teams.” Late in the season, poor teams as home dogs have really underperformed in the betting market, leading to value on the other side.
It has been a highly-profitable system historically, going 371-274-11 (57.5%) since 2004, good for a robust 12.1% Return on Investment.
There’s one match tonight:
- Timberwolves -5 at Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Rockets at Hornets: The Rockets are 11-19 ATS on the road.
- Warriors at Heat: The Heat are 10-18-1 ATS at home but 18-10-1 as underdogs.
- Wizards at Nets: The Wizards are 9-22 ATS on the road.
- Wolves at Hawks: The Hawks are 10-18 ATS at home.
- Blazers at Celtics: The over is 20-11 in Celtics home games.
- Bulls at Grizzlies: The under is 14-8 when the Grizzlies are favorites.
- Pistons at Spurs: The Spurs are 18-11 ATS at home but 1-9 in their last 10 overall.
- Pacers at Mavericks: The Mavericks are 20-10 ATS at home.
- Clippers at Jazz: The under is 18-12 when the Clippers are underdogs.
- Bucks at Kings: The Kings are 21-8-1 ATS at home.
- Pelicans at Lakers: The under is 21-8 in Lakers home games.