Wednesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 11 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, plus analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (-5), 8 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers (-6), 8 p.m. ET
- OKC Thunder (-4.5) at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets (-4), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (-14), 8 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-4) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons (-10) at New York Knicks, 8 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets (-5), 8 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers (-3), 10:30 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at LA Clippers (-8), 10:30 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-12.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
All data as of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Wednesday NBA Most Public Bets
- Thunder -4.5 at Bucks: 78% of bets
- Nets -5 vs. Heat: 77%
- Hornets -4 vs. Magic: 73%
- Over 219 in Heat-Nets: 72%
- Clippers -8 vs. Jazz: 70%
Wednesday NBA: Injuries to Know
There are way too many injuries to highlight anything specific here; that’s what happens in the last day of the season with teams either out of the playoffs or locked into a specific seed.
The 76ers, for example, are resting all of their starters. The Blazers are giving Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum the night off. Donovan Mitchell won’t suit up for the Jazz.
You get the point: Injuries are the key to everything tonight for the betting and DFS slates. To make things easier, we’re tracking everything here.
Further, we’re tracking what each team has at stake tonight; that’s probably the most important angle for DFS and betting today.
Wednesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with different roles for players out of the playoff race, there’s a ton of value on tonight’s NBA DFS slate. I mean, ridiculous value.
Even a +6.0 Plus/Minus is a very valuable mark on DraftKings, and there are FIFTEEN players with a mark above +10.0. Sheesh.
One word of caution, though: It’s a crazy time of year for NBA.
Take yesterday for example: Mario Hezonja was the chalk in DFS and was scratched after lock. That swung literally hundreds of thousands of dollars. Further, the Raptors rested players despite saying otherwise; the Warriors did the same. So buckle up, because it’s probably going to be another crazy night.
Anyway, as of now — an important qualification — here are some of the guys at the top:
- Ekpe Udoh ($3,300) at Clippers: +22.14 Projected Plus/Minus
- Gorgui Dieng ($4,100) at Nuggets: +17.00 Projected Plus/Minus
- TJ McConnell ($3,400) vs. Bulls: +16.80 Projected Plus/Minus
- Khem Birch ($3,500) at Hornets: +16.65 Projected Plus/Minus
No, those aren’t misprints.
Indeed, Udoh, who is projected to play over 32 minutes for a Jazz team resting Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Ricky Rubio and Derrick Favors is projected to be the slate’s best value play.
Nailing rotations of those teams is key to the slate, and that’s what we’re here to help out with. Make sure to check out our models for all of the other value plays, as well as to use our lineup builder and optimizer.
Wednesday NBA: Best Player Props
Player props are coming out slowly today because of the crazy slate, but make sure to check in closer to lock. This season, bets with a Bet Rating of 10 have hit at a 57% win rate.
One intriguing bet tonight is Andre Drummond to go over his 18 rebound prop.
I know, 18 rebounds seems like a lot. But note that the dude is averaging 15.6 rebounds per game this season and will start without fellow frontcourt mate Blake Griffin, who is doubtful tonight with a knee injury. In six games without Griffin this season, Drummond has averaged 17.3 rebounds per game.
So that’s still not at our prop, but remember that Detroit has to win tonight to get into the playoffs. Lose, and Charlotte gets the final spot. That means Drummond & Co. should be incredibly motivated to beat the Knicks, who on the season rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebound rate.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Wednesday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
Ken Barkley: Hawks -5 vs. Pacers
In Game 82, it’s tough to even use statistics with a straight face since all of the aspects of this game will basically be different than what we’ve seen throughout the season.
It’s kind of an exhibition.
But Atlanta is weirdly undervalued here considering Indiana is resting almost its entire starting lineup. It’s a testament to the Pacers’ depth that they can still roll Tyreke Evans, Doug McDermott and Cory Joseph out there despite sitting five prominent players, but their bench will be a disaster in this game.
Meanwhile, all prominent Hawks are playing, and Atlanta might be getting a bad wrap because of bad play recently. The team’s past six games were all against either elite teams or teams that had to win to stay in playoff contention (like Orlando).
April has been anything but a cakewalk for the Hawks so far, because basically every night they are STILL getting a team’s best shot. Finally, that is no more.
I expect Trae Young off a game of rest to put one final stellar rookie performance on the table against an Indiana team that’s just trying to avoid injuries.
John Ewing: Under 226 in Blazers-Kings
At The Action Network, we often talk about fading the public, but in Game 82 of the NBA season, it’s been profitable to follow the betting percentages — especially with over/unders.
Since 2005, whichever side of the total has gotten 51% or more of the bets, the over and under have combined to go 104-80-5 (57%). That means if +50% of bets are on the over, you bet the over. And if a majority of tickets are on the under, bet the under.
More than 60% of bets are on the Blazers-Kings under. The total has moved from 229 to 226. Even though you missed the best of the line, there is still value betting the under.
Matt LaMarca: Pistons -10 at Knicks
I’m not overthinking this one.
The Pistons need a win to secure their place in the playoffs, and the only thing standing between them is the lowly Knicks, who have already locked up the worst record in the NBA and will likely be without a number of key contributors.
Laying nearly double digits with the Pistons on the road is a bit scary after last night’s near-debacle against the Grizzlies, but history suggests Detroit is on the correct side: Road favorites of at least eight points have posted an 8-1 record against the spread on the last day of the season since 2005.
The spread has also moved in their favor by one point, which qualifies them for another profitable late season trend. I expect them to get the job done even if Blake Griffin is unable to suit up.
Wednesday NBA Pro System of the Day
Yesterday, our own John Ewing spotted an interesting trend about favorites in Games 81-82 of the season. Those teams have been profitable historically, and since these trends last for only one more day, let’s highlight it again:
Ewing took it even further and found better value on favorites that have seen a one-point line move in their favor, as well as road favorites. See the piece for more information.
Wednesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Pacers at Hawks: The Pacers are 16-23-1 ATS on the road.
- Bulls at 76ers: The under is 29-22 in Bulls conference games.
- Thunder at Bucks: The over is 35-25 when the Thunder are favorites.
- Magic at Hornets: The over is 7-3 in the Magic’s last 10 games.
- Mavericks at Spurs: The Mavericks are 30-20-1 ATS as underdogs.
- Warriors at Grizzlies: The under is 30-21 in Warriors conference games.
- Pistons at Knicks: The Knicks are 14-24-2 ATS at home.
- Heat at Nets: The Heat are 26-14 ATS on the road.
- Kings at Blazers: The Kings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Jazz at Clippers: The Clippers are 29-13 ATS as favorites.
- Wolves at Nuggets: The Nuggets are 25-15 ATS at home.