Wednesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 11 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, plus analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (-5), 8 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers (-6), 8 p.m. ET
- OKC Thunder (-4.5) at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets (-4), 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (-14), 8 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-4) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons (-10) at New York Knicks, 8 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets (-5), 8 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers (-3), 10:30 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at LA Clippers (-8), 10:30 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-12.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
All data as of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Wednesday NBA Most Public Bets
- Thunder -4.5 at Bucks: 78% of bets
- Nets -5 vs. Heat: 77%
- Hornets -4 vs. Magic: 73%
- Over 219 in Heat-Nets: 72%
- Clippers -8 vs. Jazz: 70%
Wednesday NBA: Injuries to Know
There are way too many injuries to highlight anything specific here; that’s what happens in the last day of the season with teams either out of the playoffs or locked into a specific seed.
The 76ers, for example, are resting all of their starters. The Blazers are giving Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum the night off. Donovan Mitchell won’t suit up for the Jazz.
You get the point: Injuries are the key to everything tonight for the betting and DFS slates. To make things easier, we’re tracking everything here.
Further, we’re tracking what each team has at stake tonight; that’s probably the most important angle for DFS and betting today.
Wednesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with different roles for players out of the playoff race, there’s a ton of value on tonight’s NBA DFS slate. I mean, ridiculous value.
Even a +6.0 Plus/Minus is a very valuable mark on DraftKings, and there are FIFTEEN players with a mark above +10.0. Sheesh.
One word of caution, though: It’s a crazy time of year for NBA.
Take yesterday for example: Mario Hezonja was the chalk in DFS and was scratched after lock. That swung literally hundreds of thousands of dollars. Further, the Raptors rested players despite saying otherwise; the Warriors did the same. So buckle up, because it’s probably going to be another crazy night.
Anyway, as of now — an important qualification — here are some of the guys at the top:
- Ekpe Udoh ($3,300) at Clippers: +22.14 Projected Plus/Minus
- Gorgui Dieng ($4,100) at Nuggets: +17.00 Projected Plus/Minus
- TJ McConnell ($3,400) vs. Bulls: +16.80 Projected Plus/Minus
- Khem Birch ($3,500) at Hornets: +16.65 Projected Plus/Minus
No, those aren’t misprints.
Indeed, Udoh, who is projected to play over 32 minutes for a Jazz team resting Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Ricky Rubio and Derrick Favors is projected to be the slate’s best value play.
Nailing rotations of those teams is key to the slate, and that’s what we’re here to help out with. Make sure to check out our models for all of the other value plays, as well as to use our lineup builder and optimizer.
Wednesday NBA: Best Player Props
Player props are coming out slowly today because of the crazy slate, but make sure to check in closer to lock. This season, bets with a Bet Rating of 10 have hit at a 57% win rate.
One intriguing bet tonight is Andre Drummond to go over his 18 rebound prop.
I know, 18 rebounds seems like a lot. But note that the dude is averaging 15.6 rebounds per game this season and will start without fellow frontcourt mate Blake Griffin, who is doubtful tonight with a knee injury. In six games without Griffin this season, Drummond has averaged 17.3 rebounds per game.
So that’s still not at our prop, but remember that Detroit has to win tonight to get into the playoffs. Lose, and Charlotte gets the final spot. That means Drummond & Co. should be incredibly motivated to beat the Knicks, who on the season rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebound rate.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.