Moore’s Monday NBA Betting Picks & Angles: Riding the New-Look Wolves
Photo credit: Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Malik Beasley
Angles based on matchups and trends for Monday’s NBA slate…
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
NETS AT PACERS (-6.5), 219
THE ANGLE: Indiana’s shot selection vs. a quality Nets defense
When I saw the line, Pacers was my gut reaction. They’ve lost five straight, but when you get in the weeds, it looks different.
The Knicks loss was whatever; you can’t really think they’re worse than the Knicks and just had one of those games. They lost to the Mavericks, who can outshoot any team. And then they lost both ends of a home-and-home with the Raptors, one after a furious Toronto comeback in Indy in which the Pacers got a brutal no-call on their final possession.
I told you on Saturday it was a good spot for the Pelicans, and they ran up a big number.
Now, they’re facing the Nets without Kyrie Irving — an offense that is a lot easier for them to corral and keep pace with. But the number is high. The Nets are 50% ATS this season without Irving; the Pacers as a home favorite are 12-11. There’s just not a lot of value at this number.
However, here’s where the matchup finds us an angle. The Nets are actually a top-10 defense but bad offensively. Most notably, the Nets allow the ninth-fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions.
The Nets are also 12th in mid-range defense, per Synergy Sports, and that’s where the Pacers generate most of their offense. The Nets are also eighth defending spot-up attempts, where the Pacers usually feast.
As a home favorite this season, the Pacers have averaged 111 points per game. The Pacers are bottom-10 in pace this season. The team total is all the way up at 112.5.
So while I think the spread is a stay-away and I don’t want to bank on the Nets offense, the Pacers’ total of 112.5 has value on the under.
THE PLAY: Pacers team total under 112.5
HAWKS AT MAGIC (-8.5), 220.5
THE ANGLE: Atlanta’s not the same team it has been
This line moved 2.5 points towards the Magic from open (6), and the money is coming in even higher than the tickets on Orlando, indicating the sharps like that side. Lloyd Pierce is 5-13 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back in his career.
And yet, I lean Hawks here. The Hawks since January 15 are 8-5 ATS vs. teams under .500. They were without John Collins for 25 games, which attributed to their plunge off the cliff, and Kevin Huerter’s absence hurt as well. Now those two are back, and they added Clint Capela, who will make his debut at some point.
The Magic at 8.5 is just a touch too high.
I think there’s a lot more value on the over, though. The over in Hawks games in which Atlanta is on rest disadvantage is 10-3 this season. The Magic don’t have great perimeter defenders to attack Trae Young.
Either the Hawks are going to put up more points than expected or the Magic are going to rack up their biggest point total of the season. Against a soft total of 220.5, the over is the move.
THE PLAY: Over 220.5
WOLVES AT RAPTORS (-9) 230.5
THE ANGLE: The new-look Wolves are still undervalued
I wrote after the trade deadline about why the Wolves’ moves made sense, especially for how they’ve designed their offense around 3-pointers. In their first game with the new lineup, Minnesota dropped 26 three-pointers on the Clippers, a franchise record and one shy of the NBA record for a single game.
So I’m going to keep riding them until the market reacts. The Raptors give up the most 3-point attempts and the fifth-most made 3s per 100 possessions this season.
Via Sports Insights, 54% of the tickets are on the Wolves, but 74% of the money. Marc Gasol is out and Kyle Lowry is questionable. All of this sets up favorably for the Wolves.
The team total for the Wolves is at only 110. I like that spot better than the combined total of 230.5. The Raptors are likely to put up a big number and could breeze past 120, but I’d rather focus in on the softer number.
THE PLAY: Wolves +9, Wolves team total over 110
KINGS AT BUCKS (-11), 228.5
THE ANGLE: Fade the Giannis letdown
Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to miss Monday’s game due to personal reasons. In three of the four games Giannis has missed this season, the Bucks have been favored by 10 points or more.
Hang on, let me pause to laugh hysterically.
OK, OK, I’m back. And in all three of those games, the Bucks have covered.
Again, let me pause to laugh hysterically. Maniacally, even.
(Laughs hysterically, maniacally even.)
Look, you can take the Kings. They’re 3-0 ATS when double-digit dogs and 2-1 straight up in those spots. As a road dog, they’re 13-7 ATS on the season. It’s pretty good.
But the letdown spot here is great for the Bucks. They’re more than just Giannis, and while the 10.5-point line reflects that, the three-point move with Giannis out doesn’t.
Honestly, if you’re going to bet the Kings, go the full way and take the ML. They’re 2-1 straight-up when 10-point dogs with wins over the Clippers and Rockets. But I’ll trust the Bucks at home.
THE PLAY: Bucks -10.5
JAZZ (-1.5) AT MAVERICKS, 218.5
THE ANGLE: Tread lightly
The Jazz are 0-2 on the road on the second night of a back-to-back this season. They average 110 points on the second night of a back-to-back total, and their team total over/under is 110.5 in this one.
The Mavericks are 4-2 ATS without Luka Doncic and Dwight Powell. The Mavericks defense is awful. The Jazz offense is really good, so I can lean towards the over at 218.5. The over in Mavericks games with a total below 220 is only 7-8 this season. In Jazz games with a total of less than 220, the over is 11-18.
This line is too sharp. Stay off it.
THE PLAY: Walk away, Renee.