Moore’s Saturday NBA Betting Picks & Angles: Should the Mavericks Be Favored Without Doncic and Porzingis?

Credit:

Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (77) and Kristaps Porzingis (6) of the Dallas Mavericks.

Angles for Saturday’s games based on matchups and trends…

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic

Spread: Heat -2
Over/Under: 207.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Angle: Miami’s Road Slide

The Heat are 4-6 in their last 10 on the road and 4-6 ATS, and it’s only getting worse. The Heat were 13-4-1 ATS through November. Since Dec. 1, it’s 13-15-1.

Miami is also 12-11-2 ATS vs. teams with a defensive efficiency under 105, which Orlando qualifies as.


Odds via BetMGM, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Orlando is 7th in opponent turnover percentage, Miami has the 5th-highest turnover rate. That’s dangerous on the road. The over for bottom-five points allowed off turnovers teams is 67-50-1 (57%) ATS this season.

I wrote on why it’s time to start fading the Heat but you can’t just blindly fade them every time out. This spot, though, on the road vs. a defensively-good division opponent as a favorite, is one such spot.

The Bet: Magic +2.5, Over 207.5

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers

Spread: Pacers -10.5
Over/Under: 212.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET

Indiana is rarely a big favorite. This is just the 11th game in the past two seasons that the Pacers have laid 10+ points. They’re 3-1 ATS in such spots this year, but more importantly, they are 18-10-1 (64%) ATS vs. teams under .500. They simply handle business.

The Knicks are 6-7 as a double-digit dog. That’s tight… and they are 5-3 when between +9.5 and +12. But I think the market is still underrating how good Indiana is defensively.

On the total, this is a bottom-five offense vs. a top-ten defense with two teams that are bottom-five in pace. The Pacers are also 30th in free throw rate. Only 33 of the tickets are on the under, but 67% of the money is. The sharps like the under. So do I.

The Bet: Pacers -10.5, Under 212.5

Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks

Spread: Mavericks -4.5
Over/Under: 236
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

Wait, wait, wait, the Mavericks on a back to back without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis and are favored?  I don’t even mind them being favored, by much. Being -1 or -2 sounds right. But -4.5?

The Hawks are better with John Collins, 5-4 straight up since his return. They are without Kevin Huerter, Bruno Fernandez and De’Andre Hunter. Also Alex Len. Also DeAndre Bembry. So yeah, there’s some injuries. But the Mavericks just do not have a roster that should be favored by five on a back to back.

The Bet: Hawks +4.5

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories