Moore’s Saturday NBA Betting Picks & Angles: Should the Mavericks Be Favored Without Doncic and Porzingis?
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (77) and Kristaps Porzingis (6) of the Dallas Mavericks.
Angles for Saturday’s games based on matchups and trends…
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
Spread: Heat -2
Time: 7 p.m. ET
The Angle: Miami’s Road Slide
The Heat are 4-6 in their last 10 on the road and 4-6 ATS, and it’s only getting worse. The Heat were 13-4-1 ATS through November. Since Dec. 1, it’s 13-15-1.
Miami is also 12-11-2 ATS vs. teams with a defensive efficiency under 105, which Orlando qualifies as.
Orlando is 7th in opponent turnover percentage, Miami has the 5th-highest turnover rate. That’s dangerous on the road. The over for bottom-five points allowed off turnovers teams is 67-50-1 (57%) ATS this season.
I wrote on why it’s time to start fading the Heat but you can’t just blindly fade them every time out. This spot, though, on the road vs. a defensively-good division opponent as a favorite, is one such spot.
The Bet: Magic +2.5, Over 207.5
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
Spread: Pacers -10.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Indiana is rarely a big favorite. This is just the 11th game in the past two seasons that the Pacers have laid 10+ points. They’re 3-1 ATS in such spots this year, but more importantly, they are 18-10-1 (64%) ATS vs. teams under .500. They simply handle business.
The Knicks are 6-7 as a double-digit dog. That’s tight… and they are 5-3 when between +9.5 and +12. But I think the market is still underrating how good Indiana is defensively.
On the total, this is a bottom-five offense vs. a top-ten defense with two teams that are bottom-five in pace. The Pacers are also 30th in free throw rate. Only 33 of the tickets are on the under, but 67% of the money is. The sharps like the under. So do I.
The Bet: Pacers -10.5, Under 212.5
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks
Spread: Mavericks -4.5
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Wait, wait, wait, the Mavericks on a back to back without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis and are favored? I don’t even mind them being favored, by much. Being -1 or -2 sounds right. But -4.5?
The Hawks are better with John Collins, 5-4 straight up since his return. They are without Kevin Huerter, Bruno Fernandez and De’Andre Hunter. Also Alex Len. Also DeAndre Bembry. So yeah, there’s some injuries. But the Mavericks just do not have a roster that should be favored by five on a back to back.
The Bet: Hawks +4.5