Moore’s NBA Sunday Betting Guide: Odds, Picks and Analysis for Spurs-Thunder, Pistons-Blazers and More
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Gregg Popovich
Let’s jump into some betting angles for today’s NBA slate.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Spread: Raptors -5.5
Time: 6 p.m. ET
The Angle: Nurse dominates the East
I’ve been big on Eastern Conference home teams this season.
East Home Favorites are 91-74-4 (55%) ATS vs. conference rivals this season. But with Nick Nurse’s Raptors, it gets even better. In two seasons, the Raptors are 26-18 (59%) ATS as a home favorite vs. other Eastern Conference teams.
That margin dips vs. the really good teams; facing teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Raptors fall to just 7-6 ATS under Nurse at home. But the Pacers are just slightly below that mark.
Indiana played the Raptors extremely close at home earlier this season. But on the road, the Raptors have been much tougher. One caveat: Victor Oladipo is out in this game, which I think actually helps the Pacers with getting back to the rhythm that made them so good before their losing streak before All-Star weekend.
However, with a line below two possessions, I’m taking Toronto.
The Bet: Raptors -5.5
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Spread: Thunder -5.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET
The Angle: Spurs overs on the road
The over is 19-10 when the Spurs are on the road this season. That is the best mark for overs for road teams, league-wide. That’s a starting place, not an end, though.
In the six matchups between these two teams since the start of last year, the two teams have averaged 236 points vs. an average Over/Under of 222 (the same as it is today). Yet the over is just 3-2-1 due to the wild swings of one team or the other being unable to score.
The reason the last two seasons matter given the massive changes for the Thunder is that Steven Adams hasn’t been able to control the game defensively the way he used to. That slippage really matters vs. LaMarcus Aldridge. But most importantly, the bench unit is even worse now than it was last year, and that’s where the Spurs really thrive.
But the Spurs’ defense also struggles with good guards, and the Thunder have three of them.
The Bet: Over 222
Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers
Spread: Blazers -6
Time: 9 p.m. ET
The Angle: THE itch you have to scratch
I like the Pistons. God help me, I do. Sekou Doumbouya, Bruce Brown, Christian Wood. I know they lost Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, and Markieff Morris. I know they are 6-10 ATS as a dog vs. teams under .500. I know all the reasons I shouldn’t…
But the Blazers are without Damian Lillard. And he is the engine of that team more than any other player. They’ve lost a ton of talent as well, and I just don’t think Portland should be favored by 5.5 against anyone. I simply don’t think the Blazer, built almost entirely around Dame, should be favored without him, at least not by more than three.
The Bet: Pistons +5.5
Wizards-Bulls: The Wizards are favorites on the road for only the second time this season. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS as a home dog. The Bulls’ defense is underrated but they can’t keep pace offensively.
This game is terrifying and a total nope.
Pelicans-Warriors: I’m not psyched about laying double-digits with the Pelicans, even against the Warriors. They’re good, but this is the market getting a little carried away.
The Warriors are 11-7 as a double-digit dog ATS this season, and 3-1 ATS vs. sub.500 teams in such spots. But I’m not betting the Warriors. I just can’t do that.